Author: Dmytro Spilka

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

In 2025, the future of Bitcoin is full of expectations, and market giants are looking forward to Trump's return, hoping that this event will become a major catalyst for the growth of the crypto market throughout the year.

1. Bitcoin breaks all-time high

After Trump won the presidential election on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 milestone for the first time. And with Trump's official inauguration on January 20, 2025, the heat of the Bitcoin market was pushed to higher expectations.

Boosted by Trump's promise of regulatory relief and a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, market confidence has grown exponentially. According to FX Street data, cryptocurrency adoption among people aged 18 to 25 surged 683% after the presidential election, and Bitcoin's price ceiling has become a hot topic in the market.

2. The future of Bitcoin: How will Trump’s second term affect the market?

Will Trump’s policies drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs? Will the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve be a watershed moment in Bitcoin’s history? Let’s take a closer look at the possible impacts.

1) Build up a Bitcoin reserve

During last year's campaign, Trump promised to put all the bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government and those purchased in the future into a "national strategic bitcoin reserve." He likened the plan to the U.S. oil reserves and the need to act quickly to accumulate large reserves before competing countries such as China.

Trump's plan is not the first of its kind in the world. As early as 2021, El Salvador used Bitcoin as a reserve asset and currently holds a total of 6,150 Bitcoins, which is approximately US$600 million at current prices.

Although the specific details of Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan are still unclear and there is uncertainty as to whether it will actually be implemented, there are signs that this plan may refer to the "BITCOIN Act" (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide) proposed by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis.

According to an analysis by Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom24, “Under the so-called BITCOIN Act, the U.S. must accumulate 1 million bitcoins over the next 20 years, equivalent to about 5% of the total supply. The limited supply of bitcoin is expected to push up its price, and by accumulating bitcoin now, the U.S. may help offset growing debt problems in the future.”

Since the total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million, this means that 5% of the supply is equivalent to 1.05 million Bitcoins, which is worth more than $100 billion at current valuations.

2) Supply and demand imbalance will push up prices

With the huge demand for Bitcoin ETF funds, this supply-demand imbalance may further drive prices up. Manturov pointed out that in this context, the market's predictions for Bitcoin prices range from $125,000 in 2025 to $2.9 million in 2050.

It is not certain whether Trump’s policy will come true, but if this plan is implemented, the United States may not only become the leader in Bitcoin reserves, but will also have a profound impact on the future of the crypto market. Bitcoin’s historic moment may be coming.

3. How high can Bitcoin go?

The timing of Trump's return to the presidency is particularly critical because Bitcoin has just completed its fourth "halving event" in 2024. This is a preset mechanism that occurs automatically every four years or so, and each halving halves the Bitcoin rewards miners receive through computing power mining.

1) Halving event and market rally

The Bitcoin halving event automatically increases the scarcity of newly generated Bitcoins, and historically this mechanism has often triggered market rallies and pushed Bitcoin prices to record highs.

Therefore, expectations for Bitcoin’s performance in the first half of 2025 are already extremely high, and the optimism brought about by Trump may further boost Bitcoin’s adoption.

2) Trump’s price expectations

According to sources, Trump privately hopes that Bitcoin can reach $150,000 early in his presidency and sees it as an alternative to the stock market.

Trump's son Eric Trump is even more radical. He said at the Bitcoin Conference MENA in December that the price of Bitcoin could reach $1 million in the future.

While the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and the volatility of global markets and geopolitics make such predictions fraught with uncertainty, given investor enthusiasm and the limited supply of Bitcoin, it is not inconceivable that Bitcoin could reach the $1 million mark in the future.

However, in 2025, the price of Bitcoin could be closer to Trump’s $150,000 prediction. But if market sentiment continues to grow, $150,000 may appear too conservative.

4. Potential problems still exist

A key challenge facing the Trump administration is that uncertainty about the future of Bitcoin remains.

John Prasad, senior investment expert at Mirabaud Group, pointed out that Bitcoin's future is full of potential but also accompanied by uncertainty. He listed inflationary pressures, liquidity issues, global regulatory prospects and controversy as a store of value as reasons why Bitcoin's growth is not yet fully guaranteed.

Chris Lehmann, Washington bureau chief for The Nation magazine, believes that the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in the United States could lead to a surge in scams and pump-and-dump schemes, which are exactly what former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler was trying to combat.

Although Gensler's departure is welcomed by the crypto community, the credibility of the entire crypto market may be affected if the regulatory framework is loose.

5. Trump’s transformative impact

There is no doubt that Trump’s new administration will become one of the forces with the greatest impact on the cryptocurrency ecosystem since the advent of Bitcoin in 2009.

Trump’s promise to build a Bitcoin reserve and implement crypto-friendly policies is driving expectations that 2025 will be a banner year for the crypto market. Many speculative investors have tacitly assumed that a strong rise in Bitcoin prices is almost certain.

However, the speculative nature of the industry leaves uncertainty lingering, and in an open regulatory environment, bad actors could further damage the credibility of cryptocurrencies.

Trump will undoubtedly play a major role in the future of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, but there are still many unknowns about how his second term will affect this market.