PANews reported on January 26 that Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on the X platform that in terms of macro news, although Trump issued orders on multiple economic policies in his first week in office, the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates next week is still as high as 98%. Next Thursday, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will announce interest rate decisions and related reports, which are worth paying attention to. Japan's interest rate hike has landed, and the eurozone is likely to continue to cut interest rates. Market expectations are relatively consistent. Market uncertainty has dropped significantly, and the main term IV has dropped significantly. The new EU regulations require crypto exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures. Deribit and other exchanges need to improve KYC before they can be used normally.
Regarding the outlook for the crypto market: Bitcoin continues to fluctuate above $100,000. The market triggered by the Trump meme last week has entered a cooling-off period. Market attention has become more dispersed, and the market frenzy has gradually subsided. In terms of options, short-term IV has dropped significantly. The at-the-money IV for the week has fallen below 55%, and the at-the-money IV for the full term is below 60%. The market has not realized uncertainty. Recently, there have been many large-volume call option transactions. After the shoe dropped, institutions began to increase their short positions in large quantities.
In terms of the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently. When you encounter a suitable interest rate order, you can actively trade it. It is worth paying special attention to especially when there is a market trend.
