Original title: Of nadirs and bidding death in memecoins
Original author: @Ga__ke
Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher
I haven't written anything for a long time. Looking back at my trading ideas in 2024, some of my views on meme coin selection are still applicable, but now we seem to have entered a new field. In 2024, we experienced the market evolution of pure meme coins > celebrity coins > art tokens > AI/technology/functional tokens. At that time, the replacement of the mainstream hot spots in the market was relatively clear - when and what kind of themes became the market outlets, there were often clear boundaries and timelines.
However, fast forward to 2025, and we see a chaotic landscape of tokens: past hot projects are struggling to gain market attention - they were once popular, but now most of them have experienced a 70-90% retracement. Unfortunately, the ones who are still holding on are often just some "last receivers" or old players who keep going in and out, looking forward to the next wave of shipments. Of course, these projects are not necessarily scams, but more like a game of "pass the parcel" - the market (or players) always chase the latest hot spots unless there is a good reason to refocus on past projects.
At the same time, new meme tracks and technology concepts are competing fiercely, and the market landscape is more complicated. 2024 has laid the foundation for the "tokenization of attention" in various industries, and Trump's "official" token has given the green light to the entire market (whether good or bad projects). In this chaos, we are beginning to see multiple tokens with different themes and different life cycles coexist at the same time. However, it must be realized that market liquidity, like our attention, is cyclical. Today's headline hot spots may be ignored tomorrow, and no one can predict tomorrow's hot spots (laughs).
Therefore, tokens of various themes will continue to coexist, and each track will also go through its own liquidity cycle. What does this mean? Remember this picture?
Now, imagine this is a price chart of a single token; at the same time, you can also flip it over and it becomes a chart of another token.
Go a step further and overlay these graphs in your mind and realize that there are 112,931,920,482 tokens on the blockchain, each with their own highs and lows; at the same time, the overall trend of each sector is at a different stage - some have just hit bottom (nadir), and some have already reached the top (zenith).
My core point is that there are always countless trading opportunities in the market, the key is to find those that have not been squeezed. Of course, the vast majority of tokens may end up being nothing, but you can at least put them on your watch list, leave yourself a note, or set a price alert so that you can check back at the right time.
We have covered almost all the major tokenized attention tracks in 2024. I mentioned some key categories earlier, let’s expand on them. Some projects didn’t survive a week, and some once-popular projects have already hit bottom.
1. Pure meme coins — These tokens are purely for fun, usually derived from viral trends on X (Twitter)/TikTok, or retro nostalgic memes. The flywheel effect of “Copypasta” gameplay and virality is most prominent here.
2. Celebrity Coins - These tokens are based on an influential person, and the core logic of many projects is to use the fan effect to harvest the market. Although this field is full of "cash machine" projects, it still provides an opportunity window - because they can "guide ordinary users into the currency circle."
3. Art Tokens - Tokens supported by art, which can be seen as an evolved version of the NFT community to some extent.
4. AI / Tech / Utility Tokens - These tokens at least conceptually carry some kind of technology or utility. I once said I would never trade such tokens, but the market environment is constantly changing and we need to adapt. The market often values the "technical prospect" more than the actual technology itself - in other words, the selling point is the "expectation of the news" rather than the technology itself (sell the news / the idea of the news).
5. Web2 Community Tokens (Communities / Web2) - This category is similar to celebrity coins, but they rely on existing Web2 communities and use the existing fan base to project into the Web3 field.
6. News/Tweets tokens - These tokens are often quick speculations on a short-term hot topic and can set a "market trend" (meta) in a short period of time. These tokens usually rise very quickly and fall just as quickly, and of course they may have a second chance. But don't FOMO too much during the first surge, otherwise you will be easily buried.
The categories listed above are not comprehensive, but are merely attempts to simplify the analysis process. So, will new categories emerge in the future? I hope so - generally speaking, new market trends (meta) are often accompanied by the most lucrative returns. However, as mentioned above, the boundaries of the market are becoming increasingly blurred as different categories of tokens are gradually gaining a foothold and are at different stages of their life cycle. Coupled with the cooling of the market after the Trump Token craze, we are seeing more "bear posting". Indeed, it is difficult to imagine what will happen next that can surpass that wave of enthusiasm, at least for now, I personally can't see a clear direction for the time being.
Nonetheless, I welcome this slowdown in the market. As someone who is more of a holder than a trader, I benefit more from a market environment where the market is returning to being dominated by category 1/3/4 tokens, which are generally slower-paced, community-driven, and more organically grown.
In terms of meme coin selection, some of the ideas from 2024 still apply (especially category 1/3). But as more and more tokens experience a 90%+ retracement, this also brings new entry opportunities. Here are some key factors that may become future catalysts:
1. Community Expansion: Who are the possible future supporters of the token? In fact, in most cases, they don’t even need to actually buy in. Just the market’s expectation of their buying is enough to drive the price up. For example, the MLG token was silent for 7 months until it was picked up again and eventually attracted the attention of big Vs like Faze. Core strategy: Tell a good story and use the “attention flywheel” (sell the story and the idea of an attention flywheel).
2. The Current Community / Team: Is the tek still tekking? Is the developer still maintaining? Is the community still vibing? For traditional meme coins, I usually recommend evaluating the resilience of the community during market pullbacks; for Category 4 tokens (tech/utility tokens), you need to delve into the project progress to see if more funds and attention are flowing in. This growth is not always directly reflected in the market value, so there are arbitrage opportunities here.
3. Mainstream Coverage: Similar to community expansion, but here the emphasis is on traditional media’s attention to specific events. For example, the politicized discussion of the pnut token, the continued coverage of moo deng, or the shift of traditional finance (TradFi) to a specific industry (such as AI/robots). In essence, this is laying out news expectations in advance, but the key is: expectations cannot be too obvious, otherwise the transaction will become crowded too early.
As with any trade, you need to get in before the market gets crowded and exit in batches as the market gets crowded. Think at each stage: Who are the marginal buyers? Is this still a good story?
Potential risks to note:
1. Sizing. You may have found 312,849 reasons to believe that certain tokens will skyrocket, but the question is - do you really have enough funds to allocate them reasonably? Be aware that the money you put into these projects may never be recovered, so you still need to retain enough liquidity to participate in the mainstream tracks and popular tokens in the current market. The good thing is that if you buy these tokens at the bottom, even if they fail to explode in the end, your drawdown is usually not too large. But if you spread your funds across 1,293 tokens, you will realize that this can become a serious problem.
2. Moat / Legitimacy. You may have good reasons to believe that a certain token should rise again, and the market trend seems to be developing as you expected. But suddenly - someone issues a brand new token, and the market funds all pour into that project! This is the sad reality of the Pump.fun era. Now anyone who knows nothing about blockchain can easily issue a coin, which is why the market is flooded with 12,312 "broccolis" and 12,903 "neiros". The solution? If you really believe in your investment logic, then spread your funds among all possible options and wait patiently for the market to select the winners. If your funds are too dispersed, you can withdraw some of your initial investment as soon as possible, and then wait for the market to select the final winner before concentrating your position. My personal example is chillguy and mnc. In the end, the market will decide which one wins.
I also know that this style of trading is not for everyone. There are countless ways to make and lose money in this market - at best, you will be regarded as a genius; at worst, it is just self-consolation. But I have learned many times that focusing on the forgotten corners of the market and ambush tokens after the storm has been a strategy that has worked for me. At the time of writing this article, a random Fortnite token is the latest example of this pattern, and we have seen similar situations many times.
