With quantum attacks looming overhead, Bitcoin, worth hundreds of billions of dollars, may face its first "life-or-death test."

Bitcoin faces its first major existential threat from the potential rise of quantum computing, which could break the cryptographic security protecting a significant portion of its supply.

The Core Threat: Bitcoin's security relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). Quantum computers, operating on different principles, could solve the mathematical problems behind ECDSA in minutes or hours, unlike traditional computers which would take millions of years.
Vulnerable Assets: Approximately 1.1 million BTC (worth ~$100 billion) in Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet and about 25% of the circulating supply are at high risk. These are stored in early "pay-to-public-key" addresses where the public key is permanently visible on the ledger, acting as a direct target.
Attack Vectors: For newer address types, risk exists only during a transaction when the public key is briefly revealed, creating a short window for a quantum computer to intercept and forge the transaction.
Uncertain Timeline: The arrival of sufficiently powerful quantum computers is uncertain (could be years or decades), but this uncertainty is dangerous. Bitcoin requires proactive migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) before such computers emerge to prevent a catastrophic failure.
Migration Challenge: Implementing a PQC solution requires code finalization, network consensus (6-12 months), and a migration period that could take an additional 6 months to 2 years.
The "Burning" Dilemma: One proposed defense is setting a deadline to destroy non-migrated coins to prevent a mass theft and market dump. However, this poses a philosophical crisis for Bitcoin, as it would mean the network can confiscate property, setting a dangerous precedent.
The Stakes: As the world's largest "honeypot," Bitcoin is a unique target because stolen funds can be liquidated directly and anonymously. The first entity with quantum cracking capability would have a massive incentive to attack Bitcoin wallets.
The Conclusion: The window for preventative action is narrowing. Bitcoin's ultimate test is not the threat itself, but the network's ability to coordinate a systematic migration to quantum-resistant algorithms before powerful quantum computers arrive.

Author: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Compiled by: Plain Language Blockchain

Bitcoin is facing its first real existential threat , not from government bans or market crashes, but from quantum computing . The 1.1 million bitcoins (worth approximately $100 billion) stored in Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, along with about 25% of the total circulating supply , are currently exposed to outdated encryption keys that are highly vulnerable to quantum attacks . When quantum computers mature—whether in 5 years or 25 years—these bitcoins will be cracked.

Threat

Bitcoin's security relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) . These algorithms make it extremely difficult to forge a Bitcoin signature mathematically without knowing the private key. For a traditional computer, cracking such a signature would take millions of years. However, quantum computers operate entirely differently ; they have the potential to solve the discrete logarithm problem behind ECDSA in minutes or hours .

Figure 1: Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet holds nearly 1.1 million Bitcoins.

Not all Bitcoins face the same risks. Early peer-to-peer K (public-key payment) addresses (including Satoshi Nakamoto's addresses) had their public keys directly displayed on the ledger . For these Bitcoins, a quantum computer is essentially a "master key" that can directly access the wallet. In contrast, later address types (such as peer-to-peer KH) hide the public key behind a cryptographic hash , only exposing it when a transaction is initiated. This creates a brief vulnerability window : theoretically, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could intercept the transaction between when you reveal your public key to transfer funds and when it is packaged and confirmed by a miner.

Uncertainty of timeline

The timeline for quantum computing is highly uncertain. It may arrive within a year, or it may never materialize. But uncertainty is the enemy , because Bitcoin needs proactive migration , not passive adaptation. If quantum computers emerge before Bitcoin has migrated to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) , Bitcoin will be utterly defeated. Hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of public keys will be exposed, and attackers could begin stealing Bitcoin and dumping it on the market, causing a devastating price crash .

Figure 2: Comparison of long-term exposure attack vulnerabilities for different Bitcoin address types

In the best-case scenario, the timeline for implementing a PQC solution is 6 to 12 months just to finalize the code and reach consensus; depending on the degree of signature optimization, the migration process may require an additional 6 months to 2 years .

Token Burning

The question is whether a deadline should be set to "destroy" those Bitcoins that haven't been migrated to quantum-resistant addresses by the deadline . If approximately 20-30% of the supply were unlocked (breached) simultaneously, Bitcoin would face a massive crisis of confidence , and its "hard currency" argument would collapse. A supply dump of this scale would create bear market conditions and potentially jeopardize Bitcoin's entire philosophy.

Figure 3: Bitcoin circulating supply

However, destroying tokens faces significant philosophical hurdles . It essentially means that Bitcoin could become confiscated property . If the network decides it can redeem itself by destroying tokens, what prevents governments or controllers from deciding which addresses (such as the assets of terrorists or dissidents) can be destroyed and censored? This would set a precedent for destroying sovereign individual ownership of assets .

primary goal

Bitcoin is the world's largest "honeypot." It's the only financial network where you can directly steal value and have 24/7 liquidity to cash out . The US dollar can't do this—stealing large sums of money will result in blocked transfers, and even if hacked, institutions will refund customers. Bitcoin doesn't have this luxury; it's purely built on trust in the code .

Figure 4: The number of addresses with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC is significant.

If someone achieves quantum computing power to crack encryption, Bitcoin wallets will become the prime target because they are easier to liquidate and offer a first-mover advantage. If the money has already been taken by the first hacker, a second hacker will gain nothing.

in conclusion

While such survivability-level vulnerabilities have long been acknowledged in cryptographic literature, the window for preventative action is narrowing , demanding immediate strategic attention from miners, exchanges, wallet providers, and individual stakeholders. The real test lies not in the existence of the threat, but in the network's ability to coordinate and systematically migrate to quantum-resistant signature algorithms before the advent of quantum computers with sufficient computing power .