1️⃣ The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but its attitude changed subtly

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, a decision that was within market expectations.

But the real turning point occurred in the divergence of attitudes within the Federal Reserve.

• In March, the Federal Reserve also released a signal that it might cut interest rates.

• But now, 7 out of 19 members have directly stated that there will be no reduction in 2025.

what does that mean?

It’s not “Pivot”, it’s “Hesitation”.

When huge differences begin to emerge among decision-makers, the market often falls into a directional vacuum.

• No interest rate cuts ➔ Capital dare not rush into risky assets (including cryptocurrencies)

• Indecision ➔ Risk assets are stuck in shock and lack trend

What the market needs is not hesitation, but a clear interest rate signal.

2️⃣ Powell issued an inflation warning: the crypto market lacks catalysts in the short term

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell specifically mentioned two new inflation risks:

1️⃣ Trade tariff issues (global supply chain tensions)

2️⃣ Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East (energy prices may fluctuate)

These statements convey a core message: the Federal Reserve dare not cut interest rates easily.

This means:

• No macro news ➔ Cryptocurrencies lack upward catalysts

• Bitcoin remains volatile, while altcoins are neither rising nor falling

To sum up in one sentence:

“Macro uncertainty ➔ Crypto waiting ➔ Every rally will be quickly reversed.”

3️⃣ SEC’s actions: an unnoticed “institutional turning point”

While everyone was watching the Federal Reserve, the SEC quietly did something:

Launch a new round of review of some stablecoin projects and crypto exchanges.

Although it did not shock the market on the surface, it was a sign that regulators are quietly advancing the strategic layout of "compliance + centralization".

This is good for mainstream assets such as Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF, but it is a potential negative for many altcoins and DeFi ecosystems.

➔ "The strong become stronger, and the weak find it harder to turn over."

4️⃣ Historical Lessons: Patience is the Most Important Trading Strategy

History will not simply repeat itself, but the patterns are always similar.

📌 March 2022: Fed remains on hold ➔ Bitcoin falls 30%

📌 December 2024: Rate cut hinted ➔ Bitcoin rises 40%

📌 June 2025: Neutral ➔ Market remains volatile

Many retail investors are eager to enter the market to buy at the bottom, or chase highs in small rebounds.

Ultimately, it will become the "cost" of capital flow.

Especially in the altcoin market, it is difficult to develop an independent trend simply relying on "hype sentiment" in the current environment.

Real rise requires coordination with the trend of "macro fund rotation".

Conclusion: The real market will come in the next 3 months

At present, the Federal Reserve has not given a clear signal of interest rate cuts, the SEC is also tightening supervision, and the crypto market is still in a "patience period."

But the next three months are crucial:

• If inflation data declines and the job market weakens, Q3 is expected to usher in a real "capital boom".

• At that time, mainstream currencies (BTC/ETH) will be launched first, and altcoins may follow suit.

Now is the time to lay out the logic and polish the position structure, not the time for FOMO.

Remember one sentence:

“The market is not short of opportunities, but it lacks the patience to wait for them.”