Hey, fellow cryptocurrency users, let's talk about something big today - the US reciprocal tariff policy has officially landed! This has been brewing since Trump took office. On the morning of April 3, the market went haywire, with Nasdaq futures crashing 5% and Bitcoin falling to $82,000. This is not a minor incident, it feels like an economic nuclear bomb has been dropped, affecting the global economy. Next, I will take you through how this wave of operations will affect the world economy and the cryptocurrency world.

1. Impact on the world economy: Is Trade War 2.0 coming?

Let's talk about the world economy first. To put it simply, this reciprocal tariff policy is "tit for tat". The United States will impose a 10% base tariff on all regions in the world from April 5, and will impose higher special tariffs on 60 specific regions from April 9. Does this sound familiar? Yes, it's the flavor of Trump's trade war, but this time it's more ruthless and more comprehensive. The goal is clear: reduce the trade deficit, bring manufacturing back to the United States, and save more money for the treasury.

But it's not that simple! The global supply chain is like a spider web. If you move one thing, the other thing will be in chaos. For example, China, Mexico, Canada and other major trading partners of the United States are probably having a headache. Once tariffs are added, export costs will rise, and American consumers will have to pay more for their purchases, and inflationary pressure will immediately rise. Not to mention that other countries may not be willing to be outdone. Canada has already threatened retaliatory tariffs, and the European Union is also sharpening its knives and preparing to fight back. If this turns into a full-scale trade war, global economic growth will suffer.

In the short term, the US economy may benefit a little bit. After all, tariffs can collect more money, estimated to increase by 400 billion, and the return of manufacturing is not a dream. But in the long term? Economists are all worried about "stagflation" - economic stagnation plus soaring inflation. Think about the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922. At that time, high tariffs directly dragged global trade into the quagmire and eventually triggered the Great Depression. Will history repeat itself this time? It's hard to say, but the market is already scared enough. The 5% dive in Nasdaq futures is no joke.

2. Bitcoin: Take a beating in the short term, but bullish in the long term?

Let's look at Bitcoin. This wave of tariffs has hit Bitcoin by surprise, with the price falling from around $100,000 to $82,000, a drop of more than 10%. Why? Because BTC is now closely linked to risky assets. When the market panics, everyone will sell risky assets first, and BTC will naturally not be able to escape. In addition, tariffs may push up inflation, and expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve are rising again. High interest rates are not good news for "zero-interest assets" such as BTC.

But don't worry, Bitcoin is very resilient. Although it may fall in the short term, I think there is still hope in the long run. Why do I say that? First of all, the inflation and economic uncertainty caused by tariffs may make more people use BTC as "digital gold" for risk aversion. In the past few years, every time there is a disturbance in the global economy, Bitcoin has always found an opportunity to rebound. For example, during the "mask" incident in 2020, BTC jumped from more than 10,000 US dollars to more than 60,000 US dollars in one breath. Now, the Trump administration is quite friendly to cryptocurrencies. He even mentioned the establishment of a "national Bitcoin reserve". Isn't this a boost to BTC?

Another thing to mention is that tariffs will increase the cost of mining. The main mining of BTC is in China and North America, and mining machines and chips are mostly imported. Once the tariff is added, the price of mining machines may increase by more than 20%, and the mining cost will jump by about 17%. Small miners have a hard time, and large miners may have to grit their teeth and bear it. But this may push up the price of BTC - the pressure on the supply side is greater, and the scarcity will be more obvious, right? Therefore, in the short term, BTC may still fluctuate for a while, but in the medium and long term, I am still optimistic. 100,000 US dollars may just be a starting point.

3. Altcoins: Are they destined to fall but not rise?

Let’s talk about altcoins. The relationship between these little brothers and the big brother BTC is really “falling together but rising differently”. When the tariffs are implemented and BTC falls, altcoins will fall. Why? Because altcoins are more “risky” than BTC and are highly speculative. When there is a slight disturbance in the market, funds will go here first.

But altcoins are not completely hopeless. The impact of tariffs on them is actually a bit similar to that of BTC, but also a bit different. For example, ETH is more correlated with Nasdaq than BTC. This time, when the US stock futures collapsed, ETH naturally could not escape. But ETH has its own fundamental support - DeFi, NFT, smart contracts and other ecosystems are still developing, and there is still potential in the long run. For example, altcoins that are linked to the real economy, such as VeChain (VET) related to the supply chain, may bring opportunities to them if the tariff war breaks out and global trade is disrupted.

However, altcoins have a big problem: poor liquidity and many retail investors. The market panic caused by this wave of tariffs is expected to cause many small currencies to "return to zero". Therefore, in the short term, altcoins are likely to "follow the decline but not the rise". After this cold winter, only the top few will survive. Friends who want to buy at the bottom should take it easy and don't dive into the pit.

4. What is the future? Look at these points

The impact of this wave of reciprocal tariffs has just begun. How it will develop in the future depends on several things:

1. The intensity of counterattacks from other countries : If Canada, the EU, and China all fight back and the trade war escalates, the global economy and crypto market will have to shake further.
2. The Fed’s reaction : If inflation really rises, will the Fed raise interest rates? How much? This is the key to affecting BTC and altcoins.
3. Trump's encryption policy : If he really promotes the "Made in America" encryption industry, such as supporting BTC mining and building national reserves, market confidence will be greatly improved.
4. Market sentiment : Don’t underestimate the power of retail investors. After this wave of panic is over, will everyone come back to buy BTC and altcoins?

5. Advice to Investors

Finally, let’s talk about something practical. What should ordinary investors do in the face of this wave of tariffs? I have a few suggestions:

• BTC : Don’t rush to buy the bottom in the short term. Wait until market sentiment stabilizes. If it can hold around $82,000, you can consider building positions in batches.
• Altcoins : Choose leading projects and avoid small currencies. ETH and BNB, which have strong ecosystems, are worth a look.
• Cash is king : With so much uncertainty, it’s better to keep some cash on hand so that you can act when the opportunity comes.

In general, the US reciprocal tariffs are a double-edged sword in the short term, and both the world economy and the crypto market will be hurt. But in the long run, BTC may take this opportunity to turn things around, and altcoins may also emerge as dark horses. We, the spectators, should keep an eye on the changes in the situation and find the right time to act! If you have any ideas, please leave a message to discuss!