Lesson 4: Comparative observation of the Chinese and American options markets - the crazy game from Tesla to Bitcoin

  • Market Size Comparison:

    • US options market averages 40M daily trades (like a 24/7 McDonald's), China's at 5M (new local burger joint), and Bitcoin options at 2M (convenience store).
    • Tesla options alone surpass all A-share options combined; Bitcoin options show 70%+ volatility vs. S&P 500's 15%.
  • Trading Rules:

    • Exercise Methods: US options are American-style (anytime exercise), A-shares are European-style (expiration-only), Bitcoin hybrids both.
    • Circuit Breakers: US halts stocks at 5% moves (5-min pause), A-shares trigger at 50% (3-min halt), Bitcoin has none but risks exchange outages.
    • Leverage: Tesla options offer 5-10x, Bitcoin up to 100x.
  • Player Structure:

    • US: 60% market makers, hedge funds hedging (e.g., Melvin Capital), retail "guerrilla" traders (WallStreetBets).
    • China: Dominated by securities firms, private funds arbitraging, retail betting on out-of-the-money options.
    • Bitcoin: Miners hedging, retail vs. quant funds, exchanges with conflicts (e.g., FTX crash).
  • Special Varieties:

    • US: Exotic options (weather, elections, box office).
    • China: Circuit breakers, position limits, strict investor thresholds.
    • Bitcoin: Perpetual options, DeFi/NFT options (hacker risks).
  • Arbitrage Strategies:

    • Volatility gaps (buy Bitcoin straddles at <60%, sell S&P 500 at VIX >30).
    • Time differences (hedge A50 futures via US options overnight).
    • Regulatory plays (short Bitcoin volatility during crackdowns, buy calls post-ETF approvals).
  • Next Lesson: Roles of options traders, with homework on Tesla/Deribit analysis and market comparisons.

Summary

1. Market size: giants vs. growth stocks

If the global options market is like a fast food restaurant:

  • The US market is a 24-hour McDonald's, with an average of 40 million options traded per day

  • The Chinese market is a newly opened local hamburger restaurant with an average daily transaction volume of 5 million

  • Bitcoin options are like a corner convenience store, open 24/7, with an average daily trading volume of 2 million contracts

Pivot Data:

  • Tesla stock options have a daily maximum transaction volume of over 2 million lots, which is more than all A-share stock options combined.

  • The implied volatility of Bitcoin options has remained at 70%+ all year round (S&P 500 options are only 15%), which can be called "roller coaster insurance"

2. Trading rules: Liberals vs. Conservatives

1. Exercise Method

  • US stock options: American style (exercise at any time), like taking food at a buffet restaurant at any time Example : Apple's stock price soared during the trading session, and those who held call options immediately exercised their options to cash out

  • A-share options: European style (exercise upon expiration), like a private meal with reservations Example : 50ETF options can only be exercised on the fourth Wednesday of each month

  • Bitcoin options: a hybrid (both American and European, with European being the main option)

2. Circuit breaker mechanism

  • US stocks: Individual stocks that rise or fall by more than 5% will be suspended for 5 minutes, like a yellow traffic light

  • A-shares: Options prices rise or fall by more than 50% and the circuit breaker lasts for 3 minutes, like a sudden power outage

  • Bitcoin: No circuit breakers, but exchanges may unplug the network (refer to exchange outage incidents)

3. Leverage

  • Tesla options: actual leverage is about 5-10 times (premium vs. underlying market value)

  • Bitcoin options: up to 100x (the death temptation of alt-exchanges)

3. Player structure: institutional Shura field vs retail amusement park

US Market:

  • Market makers account for 60% of trading volume, with 300 orders per second

  • Hedge funds use options to perform "precision surgery" (such as Melvin Capital using put options to hedge GME losses)

  • Retail investors form groups to fight guerrilla warfare (WallStreetBets uses call options to squeeze out shorts)

Chinese Market:

  • Securities firms dominate proprietary trading, like a chef in a state-owned enterprise canteen holding a spoon

  • Private equity funds play "T+0" high-frequency arbitrage

  • Retail investors love to buy out-of-the-money options (the lottery mentality of betting 10 yuan on a million)

Bitcoin Market:

  • Miners use options to hedge electricity risk

  • South Korean middle-aged women are fighting against Wall Street quantitative funds

  • The exchange is both the referee and the kicker (FTX crash incident)

4. Special varieties: creative thinking vs. stability

American exotic options:

  • Weather Options (betting on the amount of snow in Chicago)

  • Election options (betting on presidential candidates' odds of winning)

  • Movie box office options (Can Avatar 2 break $2 billion?)

Chinese characteristic design:

  • Circuit breaker mechanism (trading suspended if price rises or falls by more than 50%)

  • Position limit system (new accounts can only have a maximum of 100 positions)

  • Level 3 investor threshold (500,000 yuan in funds + simulated trading + exam)

Bitcoin Magic Reality:

  • Perpetual options (no need to expire, just pay funding fee)

  • DeFi options (automatically executed with smart contracts, but can be emptied by hackers)

  • NFT options (insurance for bored apes to prevent price crashes)

5. Practical skills: Cross-market arbitrage manual

Strategy 1: Volatility Gap Hunting

  • When Bitcoin volatility drops below 60%, buy a straddle

  • Sell wide straddles when S&P 500 volatility (VIX) exceeds 30

  • Principle : Volatility is like a spring. If you push it down, it will rebound. If you push it up too high, it will shrink.

Strategy 2: Time difference arbitrage

  • At 3 a.m. EST (after the A-share market closes), use U.S. stock options to hedge A50 futures risk

  • Before the quarterly Bitcoin delivery date, use options to hedge spot positions

  • Case : Hedging the risk of Chinese concept stocks through Tesla options during the 2024 Spring Festival A-share market closure

Strategy 3: Capturing regulatory dividends

  • When China strictly controls cryptocurrencies, shorting Bitcoin options volatility

  • When the US SEC approved the Bitcoin ETF, it bought deep out-of-the-money call options

  • Warning : Don’t follow Justin Sun’s high-profile actions during policy sensitive periods

6. Next Issue Preview

Tomorrow we will dissect the four basic roles of options traders.

After-school tasks:

  1. View Tesla option chain and compare premium differences at different strike prices

  2. Log in to Deribit and calculate the implied volatility of Bitcoin options with a strike price of $31,000

  3. Leave a message to share the biggest differences you have found in the Chinese and American options markets

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Author: 张无忌wepoets

This article represents the views of PANews columnist and does not represent PANews' position or legal liability.

The article and opinions do not constitute investment advice

Image source: 张无忌wepoets. Please contact the author for removal if there is infringement.

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