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Macro perspective
It is expected that Warsh will not, and is unlikely to, immediately implement his policy proposals of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction after taking office. Tight interbank liquidity limits the scope for balance sheet reduction, and the interest rate path is constrained by employment and inflation data. His policy framework may lack flexibility, requiring a balance between the FOMC's stance and his relationship with Trump.
With precious metals crashing and the dollar strengthening, is Warsh a friend or foe?
Markets fluctuated wildly due to the possibility of Kevin Warsh taking the helm of the Federal Reserve. His contradictory stance of supporting interest rate cuts but insisting on quantitative tightening triggered a plunge in gold and silver prices and a strengthening dollar. Investors are worried about tightening liquidity, and Wall Street is clearly divided on his independence and policy impact.
Behind the passage of the Clarity Act by the US Senate Agriculture Committee lies a bleak future.
Due to the collective opposition of Democratic senators, the committee vote barely passed amidst strong partisan divisions. If partisan conflict persists, its prospects are likely to become increasingly bleak as the election approaches.
The real culprit behind the crypto crash: the Walsh effect
Trump's nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a cryptocurrency market crash. Bitcoin fell to $78,214, while Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies dropped by more than 18%, as markets worried about monetary tightening leading to liquidity shortages and ETF outflows.
The White House convened a key dialogue with representatives from the crypto industry and banking sector to address the controversy surrounding stablecoin yields in the Clarity Act, aiming to advance legislation and balance innovation with financial stability.
Market fluctuations
No Black Swan Events, Four Unconventional Guesses About the Culprit Behind Bitcoin Overselling
Almost without warning, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted, entering its third-largest oversold zone in history, causing both long positions to collapse and psychological defenses to crumble. What baffled the market was the lack of a clear trigger for this spiraling decline. Several atypical speculations attempted to explain the strangeness of this market movement.
On February 6th, Bitcoin's drop below $65,000 triggered global panic, and MicroStrategy was once again embroiled in rumors of a "liquidation spiral." This article dissects its capital structure and debt characteristics to reveal the underlying logic behind Michael Saylor's stance of "not liquidating even if it falls to $1."
The hottest trades on Wall Street have all receded.
Wall Street's hottest trades have shifted to risk aversion, with tech stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all plummeting as markets worry about excessive AI spending and overvalued assets, prompting investors to adopt defensive strategies.
Why are gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all falling?
The global asset market experienced a collective plunge, fueled by concerns about an AI bubble and fiscal sustainability, triggering a liquidity crisis. Cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, were hit hardest, with investors panicking and selling off their holdings for US dollars.
The narrative of "old money entering the market" has become ineffective. In the absence of new buying, institutional holdings trapped at high levels may turn into continuous selling pressure.
CICC: When Gold and US Treasuries Rise Together
To end the gold price trend, the US needs to pay a heavy price to rebuild trust in US debt and resolve the dilemma of choosing between low inflation, low interest rates, and dollar hegemony.
The Story of Epstein
Genius or devil? The life of Epstein, so unbelievable even if made into a movie.
From mathematical genius to financial tycoon, Epstein manipulated global elites through power-for-sex deals, involving sex scandals, financial fraud, and political conspiracies. His mysterious death and the collapse of the cryptocurrency market have sparked conspiracy theories.
The U.S. Department of Justice released Epstein documents, revealing his early connections to cryptocurrencies: investing in Bitcoin, participating in Blockstream funding, funding Bitcoin Core development, inviting Saylor to parties, and possibly even contacting Satoshi Nakamoto's team, sparking industry speculation.
Saylor, the "zombie" kicked out of Epstein's dinner party, became Bitcoin's biggest winner.
In 2010, Peggy Siegal, Epstein's publicist, complained in an email that Saylor spent $25,000 to attend a dinner party, but left halfway through because he was boring and difficult to communicate with, like a "drug-addicted zombie."
AI was used to dissect 260,000 Epstein files, uncovering this "crypto-connection list."
Epstein was not an investor in the crypto industry. Putting together multiple clues, he seemed more like an information broker.
About Vibe Coding and Proxy
Crayfish-themed social networking: a man-made "botnet" wasting computing power.
Moltbook's content has been criticized for being highly homogenized and lacking the diversity and depth of a true human social network. Professor Hu Yong of Peking University and others argue that this purely AI-driven social experiment is a "waste of computing power" and could exacerbate the proliferation of internet spam.
BaseChain OpenClaw Ecosystem Core Project Overview
The core comprises six projects: Clanker liquidity infrastructure, Bankr Twitter-based DeFi platform, Moltbook proxy social platform, 4claw.org anonymous discussion board, clawd.atg.eth application deployment proxy, and CLAWNCH asset issuance platform.
The golden age of Vibe Coding: Open source is quietly dying.
While Vibe Coding improves programming efficiency, the mediating role of AI is severing feedback and revenue for open-source maintainers, potentially weakening the software ecosystem in the long run. The paper calls for a restructuring of the distribution of benefits, viewing open source as an infrastructure that requires investment.
Moltbook's AI social experiment has become a hit, with over a million agents joining and becoming active. However, it has also exposed security vulnerabilities and fake account issues, while simultaneously driving a surge in encrypted memes and sparking deep debate about the autonomy of AI.
The AI assistant ClawdBot (now OpenClaw) has become a sensation, capable of controlling computer applications through a messaging platform, and even fixing code and managing smart homes. Founder Peter Steinberger believes that AI will replace 80% of mobile apps, but emphasizes that human taste and judgment are indispensable; otherwise, the output will be nothing but garbage.
The AI platform Rentahuman.ai allows AI to hire humans to complete real-world tasks. Nearly 110,000 people have registered and are paying with cryptocurrency, exploring new models of human-machine collaboration. Encryption technology has become a key infrastructure.
Seize the opportunity
PANews' analysis team conducted a three-day data review of the Bitcoin 15-minute price movement prediction market, covering 1.05 million transactions. For ordinary participants, the key is either to become a top-tier sniper with a high-win-rate strategy or to maintain extremely low frequency and restraint; otherwise, frequent trading may only contribute to the ecosystem's profits.
Five key indicators to analyze Bitcoin's bottom; is it time to buy?
After the market turned bearish, where exactly is the bottom range for BTC? Multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching or already in a bottoming area, but the specific bottom still needs further confirmation based on factors such as market trading volume.
Hyperliquid enters the prediction race; what are the selling points of the HIP-4 protocol?
Hyperliquid launched its prediction market feature, Outcomes, which sent its token HYPE surging over 10%. The feature, which uses full collateral, non-linear settlement, and shares margin with existing trading products, aims to redefine the rules of prediction markets.
Web3 Matters
Multicoin's partner has left, but I don't want to leave the table yet.
Kyle Samani, a partner at crypto VC Multicoin, announced his departure from the crypto industry to pursue opportunities in fields such as AI. His departure has sparked reflection within the industry: the crypto sector is shifting from grand narratives to practical realities; while financial applications remain, confidence is being shaken by AI, though some remain committed to exploring its potential.
Circle: Why do 95% of stablecoins eventually go to zero?
Issuing stablecoins is not a technical issue, but a strategic choice concerning trust and compliance. Most projects fail due to a lack of operational capabilities; businesses should prioritize using established stablecoins rather than creating redundant ones.
Recharge your faith: Ten coins can make you a marquis.
Bitcoin's 2024 halving will make it scarcer than gold, and ETF expectations are driving up its price. Bitcoin is the only long-term value asset; beware of altcoin traps. It is recommended to accumulate Bitcoin during bear markets as an inflation hedge. For ordinary investors, understanding and holding Bitcoin firmly is key to participating in this crypto game and potentially winning.
The biggest airdrop for crypto enthusiasts was from Yuanbao.
The cryptocurrency market crash has left investors with heavy losses, prompting them to seek solace in "earning cash rewards." Compared to the high risk and low return of Web3 airdrops, Web2 cash rewards are considered more reliable.
Key Information
The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": Prepare to buy during the gold, silver, and Bitcoin market crash.
Anthropic plans to allow employees to sell shares at a valuation of $350 billion.
Ark Invest increased its holdings in companies such as Bitmine, Coinbase, and Circle.
Trump signs funding bill, ending partial government shutdown.
Trend Research deposited 20,000 ETH into Binance, and then allegedly sold 47,000 ETH within 6 hours.
Santiment: Whale holdings of BTC hit a 9-month low, while retail holdings rose to a 20-month high.
The cryptocurrency market lost $1 trillion in 22 days, averaging $45 billion in losses per day.
Bitcoin plunged 15.48% in a single day, marking its biggest single-day drop since the FTX crash.
