Author: BitpushNews
The market has been caught in a tug-of-war recently, with BTC bulls and bears repeatedly trading between $100,000 and $96,000. In the past week, there was a sharp pullback, falling below the support level of $91,000. From the volatility, it can be seen that investors' anxiety about short-term trends is heating up.
Long-term holders’ movements and market signals
On February 9, well-known analyst Maartunn shared a set of on-chain data: 14,000 bitcoins with a history of 7 to 10 years were moved on the chain.
This re-entry of long-dormant Bitcoin into circulation is often seen as an important signal, and these actions may indicate a variety of motivations - long-term holders may be preparing for a potential uptick, institutions may be rebalancing their positions, or market participants may be concerned about the continued selling pressure. Regardless, the reactivation of such a large number of old Bitcoins usually indicates that violent price fluctuations are imminent. Although such actions are not uncommon during market consolidation, they add more uncertainty to the current market sentiment.
In addition, analyst DOM discovered an unprecedented "Doji" pattern (Doji) on Bitcoin's daily chart. This pattern usually indicates market uncertainty, similar to the trend after the FTX crash in November 2022.
DOM said: "For the first time in Bitcoin's 15-year history, three consecutive 'extreme doji' candlesticks have appeared, with the real body of each candle accounting for less than 0.05% of the entire candle range. This is a sign of extreme indecision in the market and indicates that large fluctuations are coming."
It is worth noting that in November 2022, Bitcoin had two consecutive "extreme cross star" candlesticks, and then the price rebounded by 620%. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may be on the verge of another round of explosive price fluctuations.
Key Price Levels and Technical Analysis
According to TradingView data, the current price of Bitcoin is hovering around $97,600. Analyst Sebastian believes that to reignite the bullish momentum, Bitcoin first needs to stand firm at the key level of $98,000, which will lay the foundation for breaking through the psychological barrier of $100,000. Once Bitcoin successfully breaks through and stands firm at the $100,000 mark, it will confirm the strong return of bullish momentum and is expected to further explore a higher supply range, ushering in a new round of rising prices.
However, the current demand range of $96,000 to $97,000 must hold to provide support for a potential up move. If this range is lost, it could trigger more selling pressure. In this case, Bitcoin could fall below $95,000 and move down to the demand range around $90,000. Such a move would severely dampen market sentiment and further reinforce bearish expectations.
Bitcoin has also recently formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, a technical formation that often signals a major price breakout.
Market analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that the price of Bitcoin is expected to break through the upper trend line of the triangle and eventually reach the target of $116,000. According to the rules of technical analysis, the upward target is calculated by adding the maximum distance between the upper and lower trend lines of the triangle to the potential breakthrough point. This method provides a theoretical basis for Bitcoin's upward target.
Trend Outlook
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, predicts that Bitcoin could hit a record high in the first quarter of 2025, supported by Trump's favorable policies. Nevertheless, $80,000 remains a popular target for many analysts in the short term. Investment research firm Bravo Research noted that if prices fall back to this level, it will provide traders with an opportunity to "buy on dips."
In summary, Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical node, and the power comparison between long and short sides will determine the market trend in the short term. Investors need to pay close attention to the performance of the two key levels of $98,000 and $96,000. A breakthrough on either side may trigger drastic market fluctuations.
