PANews reported on November 20th that mainstream forecasting markets show a significant decrease in market expectations for a 25bps rate cut in December. Polymarket indicates a probability of approximately 29.0%, while Opinion indicates approximately 29.7%. Overall, most market participants expect interest rates to remain unchanged, with both Polymarket and Opinion showing a 69.0% probability of no change. CME FedWatch data shows a 66.3% probability of no change and a 33.7% probability of a 25bps rate cut.

The newly released minutes of the October meeting show that most officials prefer to maintain the current interest rate until the end of the year, mainly due to inflation remaining above the target and the delayed release of key labor market data caused by the government shutdown.