Written by: Mach, Foresight News
Who would have thought that the competition between the two giants of online prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, has spread from purely online to offline?
At 12 p.m. on February 4, Kalshi distributed free groceries to residents at the West Side Market at 84 Third Avenue in New York City, with a maximum of $50 per person.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated, "We believe in free markets," and it's easy to see that this move promotes the concept of predictive markets to the public through tangible benefits.
The highlight of the event lies in its clever marketing strategy. First, it directly links to current economic hotspots—inflation and rising cost of living have become pain points for Americans. Through free groceries, Kalshi not only provides immediate value but also positions itself as an "event contract exchange," allowing users to trade on political, economic, and sporting events.
For example, users can predict grocery price fluctuations or economic indicator changes on the platform, thus transforming offline experiences into online participation. Secondly, the event's location in New York City, a high-density, high-consumption city, maximized exposure. Official videos showed the event opening like a "Christmas reenactment," with crowds pouring in.
This event has a low barrier to entry: no app download is required to participate; simply shop in-store and Kalshi will pay directly. This not only lowers the barrier to entry for users but also enhances the platform's approachable image.
Unlike Kalshi's short-term promotions, Polymarket's offline events are more long-term and ambitious.
On February 4th, Polymarket announced plans to open a "free grocery store" at 7 Madison Avenue in New York City, scheduled to open on February 12th. The store is sponsored by Food Bank for New York City, with construction expected to begin in late 2025 and a lease agreement already signed. Polymarket has also donated $1 million to address safety concerns.
Polymarket's announcement was released on the same day as Kalshi's event, and even their opening times overlapped, which was seen as a direct response.
The highlights of Polymarket's campaign lie in its innovation and commitment to social responsibility. First, this isn't a one-off promotion, but a permanent store where users can access groceries for free, addressing New York's food safety concerns. Second, this aligns perfectly with the platform's core philosophy of revealing the truth and allocating resources through market prediction.
Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan said the move is an expansion of the platform from online to offline, aimed at "making prediction markets accessible."
Polymarket incorporates its signature blue logo into its stores, with a simple yet stylish interior design. Compared to Kalshi's $50 cap, Polymarket's free model is more attractive and is expected to reach a wider range of low-income customers.
Competition between the two major platforms intensifies
Kalshi and Polymarket's offline events are a microcosm of the fierce competition in the forecasting market.
Kalshi leverages its US compliance as a competitive advantage to rapidly expand its reach. It has not only integrated with various Web3 wallets into Phantom, but also partnered with Coinbase to extend its operations to all 50 US states. Coinbase users can trade prediction market contracts with a minimum investment of just $1. In January of this year, Kalshi officially announced that its annualized trading volume had surpassed $100 billion.
Polymaeket not only strengthens its partnerships with native crypto players Jupiter and Phantom, but also expands its traffic channels by sponsoring events such as the Hollywood Golden Globe Awards.
However, the latest data shows that its market share is still being eroded by Kalshi.
To make matters worse, Polymarket faces troubling regulatory issues.
In January of this year, Ukraine banned Polymarket, as its current legal framework does not recognize prediction markets. Portuguese regulators have also ordered Polymarket to cease operations in the country.
In February, a Nevada court issued a temporary restraining order prohibiting Polymarket from providing event contract services to Nevada residents prior to the preliminary hearing on February 11.
Furthermore, many regions in the Asia-Pacific region consider Polymarket a gambling platform and block its platform IP address.
Another Binance-backed competitor is also eyeing the market. Opinion completed a funding round of tens of millions of dollars in December 2025. Incentivized by the anticipated airdrop, the platform's trading volume exceeded $5 billion in just one month, and its daily transaction fee revenue exceeded $100,000.
At the same time, various exchanges, DEXs, and traditional financial institutions are also setting up prediction markets.
Bloomberg reported that Crypto.com announced on Tuesday that it will launch its dedicated prediction market platform, OG, a few days before the Super Bowl. Co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek stated that its event contract business has grown 40-fold week-over-week over the past six months, making the launch of a standalone product necessary. Another crypto trading platform, Kraken, plans to launch its prediction market service in 2026, a plan revealed by its global head of consumer business, Mark Greenberg, on the Crypto World program.
Robinhood launched its prediction market even before Trump's election and plans to launch more new event contracts for prediction markets. In October 2025, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said in an interview with Bloomberg that its prediction market segment is one of the fastest growing segments and one of its nine business lines with annual revenue exceeding $100 million.
Hyperliquid, a leading derivatives DEX, is also testing native prediction markets on its testnet. Hyperliquid announced that HyperCore will support Outcome Trading (HIP-4). Outcome trading involves fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. This is a general-purpose basic trading component suitable for applications such as prediction markets and bounded options instruments.
It features non-linear, term-limited contracts, providing a form of derivatives trading that does not involve leverage or liquidation, and can be combined with portfolio margining and HyperEVM. Currently, this functionality is still under development and is only being tested on the testnet. Once the technology is fully developed, Hyperliquid will deploy it in a regulated market denominated in USDH.
The opening of Kalshi and Polymarket is not just a marketing campaign, but a battle to capture users' attention.
Wars, political events, elections, and sporting competitions are drawing global users online, with 24/7 uninterrupted global betting, rule disputes and controversies, wealth stories and insider trading unfolding simultaneously—only money and minds never sleep. Perhaps future hot events like the World Cup and the US presidential election will continue to drive the prediction market's trading volume and popularity to new heights.
Before the outcome was decided, none of the contestants dared to let their guard down.
