Today, we will analyze the system:
Why war could be a catalyst for Bitcoin's rise? When is the best time to buy the dip?
📍 Israel strikes Iran, and the world situation escalates comprehensively
The targets of the Israeli air strikes included:
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Command
Nuclear Scientists Residence
Uranium enrichment facility
This is not a "symbolic blow" but a proactive escalation.
Oil prices soared instantly and global financial markets fluctuated synchronously.
📍 The United States officially stated that it stands behind Israel
Trump said: The United States provides intelligence support and military assistance is on the way
Warning to Iran: "Sign the agreement as soon as possible, otherwise there will be devastating consequences"
The US' tough stance directly changes the global diplomatic landscape
📍 War = bad news? Why is this a misjudgment?
Many people think:
“War = risk aversion = rising US debt = falling BTC”
In fact:
The core reason for this wave of decline is not the war, but the fact that the US CPI data exceeded expectations and the market already had expectations for adjustments.
BTC high ~$110K → CPI released → started to fall back
Air strikes are just an accelerator, not the root cause
📍 Data analysis: The real situation behind this plunge
BTC fell to ~$102K in the short term, ETH ~ $3,500, SOL fell even more
More than $1.1 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, and $330 million was liquidated in just 15 minutes
But here comes the point:
📊 On-chain data shows:
✔ Big investors are not selling, but buying
✔ Exchange BTC reserves are decreasing, not increasing
✔ ETH pledge is stable, and the main SOL funds have not withdrawn
→ This is a “washout”, not a “crash”
📍 Macro logic: Why is war not necessarily bad for BTC?
1️⃣ War increases inflation expectations → Gold, BTC and other hard assets benefit
2️⃣ Rising oil prices → Inflationary pressure → Expectations of long-term depreciation of the US dollar increase
3️⃣ U.S. Treasury bond interest rates are rising in the short term, but the crypto market has already digested it in advance
4️⃣ ETFs continue to flow in, and institutions have not stopped
War brings short-term panic, but the long-term driver is the revaluation of global safe-haven assets.
📍 Next strategy: When should I buy?
My suggestion is to make rational arrangements in batches rather than blindly buying at the bottom.
1⃣ Short-term range: BTC $102K-$104K, ETH $3,400-$3,600
2⃣ DCA configuration plan:
30% entry at initial support
30% is reserved for extreme panic before covering the position
40% Enter the market after the trend clearly reverses
⚠️ Avoid chasing highs and selling lows, and avoid using high leverage.
📍 Why is the long-term trend still bullish?
ETF funds are still flowing in
Stablecoin supply continues to rise
Large institutional positions remain unchanged
On-chain activity has not declined significantly
War creates volatility, while fundamentals provide support.
✅ Summary: This is not a signal to escape, but the beginning of an opportunity
⚠️ Misconception: “War will crush the crypto market”
✅ Correct understanding: "War brings risk aversion, but BTC will benefit in the long run"
CPI is the fundamental cause, war is the accelerator
Big investors are buying, retail investors are selling, which side should you be on?
The market will fluctuate in the next few days. It is recommended to rationally deploy high-quality currencies in batches.
The mid- to long-term logic still holds true, and adjustments are opportunities
