HashKey Trading Time: Powell's "dove" voice resonates with the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the concentration of Bitcoin chips increases, and $107,000 becomes the pressure point

1. Market observation

Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC

The macro environment has taken a positive turn. The news that Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement significantly eased geopolitical tensions, pushing market risk appetite back up, crude oil prices fell back to pre-conflict levels, and gold once fell below the $3,300 mark. Against this backdrop, Fed Chairman Powell released key signals at a congressional hearing: Although he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized that more data was needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that it was more likely to wait for the September meeting before deciding on a policy shift. He admitted that if inflationary pressures were under control, he would "cut rates sooner rather than later," but the current strong economy did not require hasty action, and pointed out that tariff uncertainty was the main reason for the postponement of rate cuts. This statement was interpreted by the market as a dovish tendency, coupled with the fading of geopolitical risks, which pushed U.S. stocks up across the board - the Nasdaq 100 hit a record high, the Dow Jones soared 500 points in a single day, and U.S. bond yields fell in tandem with the U.S. dollar. It is worth noting that in response to Trump's pressure to cut interest rates, Powell reiterated the independence of monetary policy and stressed that decisions are based only on economic data. Observations of the energy industry by industry giants show that US shale oil companies have shifted from "increasing production to buffer oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may weaken the traditional energy price fluctuation regulation mechanism.

In terms of regulation, Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey, said that Coinbase is seeking approval from the US SEC to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, low threshold, lower cost and all-weather trading. If the plan is approved, Coinbase will use blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blur the boundaries between traditional brokerages and crypto platforms, and challenge the status of traditional Internet brokerages such as Robinhood. In addition, the new management of the SEC has changed its regulatory attitude towards the crypto industry after taking office. It not only withdrew lawsuits against many crypto companies, but also established a crypto working group to formulate digital asset regulations. Jeffrey Ding believes that the United States may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading, while providing investors with more diverse and flexible trading options.

Bitcoin broke through $106,000 under macro-favorable conditions, but its performance was relatively restrained. The founder of 10x Research said that Bitcoin's 13% increase from the beginning of the year to date contrasted with the inflow of more than $63 billion, reflecting the market's caution about structural changes. According to analyst Murphy's observation, the concentration of chips within 5% of the spot price of Bitcoin has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that once the concentration exceeds 15%, the market may experience large fluctuations. In terms of technical analysis, many technical analysts have given similar predictions on the short-term trend of Bitcoin. Among them, EliZ pointed out that the price may consolidate at the current level. If it breaks through $107,000, it is expected to rise to $110,000, otherwise it may fall back to below $102,000; AlphaBTC and Open4profit both believe that Bitcoin may fall back quickly after a short-term rise to $107,000 to test the liquidity in the $104,000 to $105,000 range.

Regarding Ethereum, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said that Binance platform saw a large-scale withdrawal of funds on June 23, with more than 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform, indicating that trader sentiment may shift from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Swissblock's analysis further pointed out that as the fund rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may usher in a significant rise, and its profit supply ratio is much lower than Bitcoin, showing the potential for catch-up. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly also said that ETH is rapidly approaching $2,500, buying interest has increased significantly, and the reversal signal of the dragonfly cross has appeared. However, Marcel Pechman put forward an opposing view. He believes that the price of ETH has failed to break through $3,000 for more than 20 consecutive weeks, and market confidence has been damaged. In addition, it faces fierce competition from public chains such as Solana, and it is difficult to return to the level above $3,000 in the short term. Finally, analyst Man of Bitcoin gave specific Fibonacci target levels, believing that ETH's rising targets are $2,475 and $2,565, while support levels are around $2,331 and $2,155.

In the market, Solana officials interacted with KOL Ansem and left a message "solami" to introduce the meme coin $solami, which quickly passed 12 million US dollars and then fell back to 5.3 million; $ACID was developed by a team under the Alchemist AI Foundation. With the concept of "cross-Web2 and Web3 intelligent agent", it quickly passed 18 million US dollars in market value. It claimed that former members of OpenAI participated in the development, and the mechanism of 20% token distribution to holders attracted follow-up funds. The market value of $TECH reached as high as 3.4 million US dollars, and the current market value is 1.45 million US dollars. It is reported that the "Technologia" stems from a video in October 2024, in which two Arab men excitedly shouted "Technologia" because the back seat of the car rose.

In addition, traditional finance is accelerating its deployment in the crypto field. Nano Labs, a US stock company, announced that it would acquire BNB as a strategic reserve through a $500 million convertible bond, aiming to hold 5%-10% of BNB's circulation, pushing its stock price up 150% in a single day. The breakthrough in the Hong Kong market was that Guotai Junan International obtained a comprehensive license for virtual assets, becoming the first Chinese brokerage firm to provide mainstream currency trading services. The news stimulated its Hong Kong stock price to rise by more than 100% during the intraday session. It also led to a surge of more than 8% in the affiliated company Huamao Shares.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 25)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

Bitcoin: $106,202 (+13.61% YTD), daily spot volume $27.86 billion
Ethereum: $2,429.84 (-27.09% YTD), with daily spot volume of $15.253 billion
Fear of corruption index: 48 (neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei
Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, SEI, NEWT, BTC, ETH
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0751
Sector ups and downs: AI fell 3.45%; NFT sector fell 2.83%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$187 million, including BTC liquidation of US$34.3663 million, ETH liquidation of US$68.176 million, and SEI liquidation of US$6.9476 million
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($105,782.52), lower channel line ($103,687.82)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($2485.15), lower line ($2435.94)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 24)

Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (11 consecutive days of net inflows)
Ethereum ETF: +$71,237,900

4. Today’s Outlook

Binance: H contract and Alpha trading are scheduled to open at 17:30 and 17:00 on June 25 respectively
Kroma L2 network will be shut down on June 26, $KRO needs to be migrated to Ethereum
Binance to List Sahara AI (SAHARA) on June 26
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on the semi-annual monetary policy report. (June 25, 22:00)
Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4 p.m. on June 25, accounting for 2.84% of the current circulation and worth approximately $10 million.
AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6 pm on June 25, accounting for 6.83% of the current circulation, worth approximately $6.7 million;
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock about 15.16 million tokens at 8 am on June 25, accounting for 0.39% of the current circulation and worth about $2.3 million;
Velo (VELO) will unlock approximately 182 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 26, accounting for 2.47% of the current circulation and worth approximately $2.1 million.
Blast (BLAST) will unlock approximately 10.5 billion tokens at 10 pm on June 26, accounting for 34.98% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$22.5 million;
Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock approximately 2.15 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 26, accounting for 2.13% of the current circulation and worth approximately $2.3 million.

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market capitalization today: NEM (XEM) up 59.74%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 42.31%, Pundi AI (PUNDIAI) up 21.51%, Maple Finance (SYRUP) up 18.45%, and Apu Apustaja (APU) up 15.91%.

5. Hot News

This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.