PANews reported on August 5th that Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, noted that the July FOMC meeting, which maintained interest rates at 5.25%–5.50% and provided no guidance on future rate cuts, sparked market concerns about a prolonged period of high interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury yield subsequently rose to 4.24%, the US dollar index returned above 100, gold fell below $3,270, and Bitcoin experienced a short-term correction to the $116,000 range, with on-chain activity also declining.

However, the July non-farm payroll report, released three days later, unexpectedly plummeted: only 73,000 new jobs were added, falling short of the expected 180,000, and the cumulative downward revisions to the May-June employment figures were approximately 90%. The reality of a "systematically overvalued" labor market prompted a rapid reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path. The CME FedWatch probability of a rate cut surged from 38% to 82%, with bets on two rate cuts this year rising to 64%. The 10-year yield subsequently fell below 4.10%, causing gold to rebound $40 intraday. Bitcoin, after a brief rebound, dipped again to around $112,000.

While the sudden drop in short-term employment data has triggered significant market volatility, structural data such as household debt, credit card default rates, and commercial lending suggest that the US is currently experiencing a period of slowing growth rather than a systemic recession. This combination of declining employment and easing inflation may signal an impending shift from tightening monetary policy to easing, placing risky assets in a period of high volatility and liquidity struggles.