(27/52) Weekly Market Insights: Tariff Week-Risk Assets Shock at High Levels

Bitcoin prices fluctuated between $110,000 and $105,000 last week, up 0.81% on a weekly basis. Market sentiment remained optimistic with the passage of the Big, Beautiful Act and a potential trade deal before Trump's July 9 tariff deadline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs still maintained net inflows of about $770 million. Meanwhile, listed companies acquired about $730 million in Bitcoin last week.

Hot News

  • Bitcoin prices fluctuated between $110,000 and $105,000 last week, up 0.81% on a weekly basis. Market sentiment remained optimistic with the passage of the Big, Beautiful Act and a potential trade deal before Trump's July 9 tariff deadline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs still maintained net inflows of about $770 million. Meanwhile, listed companies acquired about $730 million in Bitcoin last week.

Macro Outlook

  • Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick both said that if no agreement is reached by the deadline, the tariffs announced on July 9 will officially take effect on August 1, and President Trump is expected to send notification letters to 12 to 15 trading partners.

  • The United States and Vietnam have reached a new trade agreement, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and raising the tariff on transit goods to 40%, while American products enjoy zero tariffs. The trade negotiations between the United States, the European Union and India have not yet come to a conclusion, and the final result may not be determined until the July 9 deadline.

  • Musk announced the establishment of a new political party, the American Party, but has not yet confirmed whether the party has been officially registered with the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC). Musk also said that the new party will support the cryptocurrency industry.

  • The Big, Beautiful Act was passed by the House of Representatives last Friday and signed into law by President Trump, including the removal of federal tip and overtime taxes, corporate tax cuts, etc. As the new debt ceiling has been raised by $5 trillion, the Treasury Department will use newly issued Treasury bonds to replenish the account balance (TGA).

  • The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in June, slightly higher than the market expectation of 48.8. The service industry PMI rose to 50.8, also higher than the expected 50.5.

  • JOLTs job openings increased to 7.769 million in May, higher than the market expectation of 7.30 million. However, ADP employment fell by 33,000 in June, much lower than the expected increase of 95,000.

  • The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 147,000 in June, significantly higher than the market expectation of 110,000, but the growth mainly came from the government education and health care industries. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%, indicating that layoffs decreased but recruitment slowed down at the same time, and the labor participation rate fell slightly from 62.4% to 62.3%.

  • The market's expected probability of a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting has dropped from 18% to less than 5%, while the probability of a rate cut in September remains around 64%.

Upcoming economic calendars include:

  • July 10 (Thursday) 2:00 am: June FOMC meeting minutes released

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

  • REX-Osprey launched Solana’s collateralized spot ETF, SSK , on CBOE. The ETF’s first-day trading volume reached $33 million, with a net inflow of $12 million, which was less than IBIT’s first-day trading volume of $1 billion and ETHA’s first-day trading volume of $240 million.

  • The U.S. SEC is reportedly developing digital asset ETF listing standards , with the goal of shortening the approval process to as fast as 75 days.

  • U.S. SEC commissioners have suspended Grayscale's large-cap digital asset fund from converting to an ETF, even though the internal team has approved the case.

  • Canary Capital applied for the "Canary Pengu ETF", proposing to allocate 80% to 90% of assets in PENGU and 5% to 15% in Pudgy Penguins NFT.

  • Senator Lummis proposed a new digital asset tax bill that would include a $300 exemption for a single transaction and a $5,000 annual cap.

  • Robinhood launches Robinhood Chain based on Arbitrum Orbit, aiming to promote the future development of asset ownership. The company also announced that it will provide tokenized stocks , ETFs and unlisted company stocks to EU users, and open ETH and SOL staking services to US customers. Other new features include perpetual contract trading, USDG integration, crypto cash rewards cards and a new version of the mobile trading application. Metadata for stock tokens can be viewed on the Arbitrum blockchain browser.

  • BackedFi's xStocks is now available on the Solana network, offering over 50 tokenized stock trading options. It is now available on Bybit and Kraken. Chainlink is the official oracle provider for xStocks, and plans to integrate Chainlink's CCIP and proof of reserve mechanism in the near future. Gate Exchange also announced that it will launch spot and perpetual contract trading for xStocks.

  • Gemini has partnered with Dinari to launch more than 20tokenized stocks that are available for trading on the Gemini platform.

  • German savings bank Sparkassen has announced plans to offer cryptocurrency services in the summer of 2026.

  • Deutsche Bank plans to launch digital asset custody services in 2026, and may expand to stablecoins and other businesses in the future.

  • Japan's Minna Bank is exploring blockchain applications, including issuing stablecoins on the Solana network, RWA transactions, and cross-border payments.

  • Russian state-owned Rostec reportedly plans to launch a ruble-pegged stablecoin, RUBx , in 2025.

  • JD.com and Ant Group have reportedly urged the central bank to approve the issuance of a stablecoin in Hong Kong pegged to the yuan .

  • JPMorgan’s blockchain subsidiary Kinexys is reportedly working with S&P Global, EcoRegistry and the International Carbon Registry to develop tokenized carbon rights products.

  • After 14 years of dormancy, about 80,000 bitcoins were transferred from traditional addresses (starting with "1") to SegWit addresses (starting with "bc1q").

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Public Chains

  • Aptos co-founder and CEO has been appointed by the U.S. CFTC to serve as a member of the Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee of the Global Markets Advisory Committee ( GMAC ).

  • TON announced the launch of the UAE 10-year golden visa application package , which requires a pledge of $100,000 in TON (which can be unlocked after 3 years) and a one-time fee of $35,000. Traditional golden visas require individuals to invest $540,000 in real estate or time deposits. Binance founder CZ said he would promote BNB to obtain a similar package. If true, the UAE ICP, SCA and VARA subsequently issued a joint statement denying such an arrangement.

  • Sonic launched a new DAG consensus mechanism SonicCS 2.0 , which can improve performance by 2 times and reduce memory usage by 68%.

  • Babylon announced that it will integrate EVM into Babylon Genesis, enabling more DeFi projects to integrate the Babylon ecosystem.

  • Avail launched the Nexus Beta version and opened early access to developers. Nexus provides a better cross-chain experience in a single application by abstracting the manual cross-chain, chain switching and wallet switching processes.

  • Celo launched a high-performance 2-layer network testnet Eclair , built on OP Succinct Lite and EigenDA v2, supporting functions such as real-time confirmation and fee abstraction.

  • Katanamainnet is launched , pioneering the concept of "chain-owned liquidity" (COL), returning sequencer fees to the core DeFi fund pool. The team has allocated 10% of the token supply to DeFi protocols such as Sushi and Morpho to start liquidity rewards.

  • Innovative Pharmaceutical Biotechnology Co., Ltd. signed a memorandum of understanding to acquire Conflux related assets.

  • The Bitcoin EVM layer 2 network Batanix mainnet is now online.

  • Upbit’s parent company Dunamu has partnered with Naver Pay to promote the Korean won stablecoin . Naver Pay is a payment service developed by LINE’s parent company NAVER.

  • VeChain launches a new staking program Stargate , allocating 5.48 billion VTHO as rewards to promote new staking contracts. This new NFT staking tier includes Dawn Node, Lighting Node, and Flash Node, serving holders of different sizes.

  • Mantle established MantleX , an AI research and incubation department dedicated to promoting AI application scenarios in blockchain.

  • Kadena released the Chainweb EVM testnet on EthCC. Kadena adopts the PoW blockchain architecture designed by Chainweb and realizes native cross-chain communication and high-performance network through multi-chain parallel operation.

Dapps

  • Jito launches TipRouter NCN , allowing validators to share priority fees with JitoSOL stakers.

  • Chainlink launches Automated Compliance Engine ( ACE ), which uses smart contracts to provide customizable compliance policies, identity management, real-time monitoring, and comprehensive reporting capabilities.

  • PancakeSwap launched the v3 liquidity pool on Solana to expand its multi-chain deployment.

  • Perpetual trading aggregator VOOI released version V2 , integrating the RWA trading functions of Ostium and KiloEx, and realizing new features such as gas-free transactions, one-click execution, and unified balance management.

  • Velodrome launches the Superswaps feature, allowing users to exchange assets across the Optimism Superchain within the platform.

  • Lido's dual governance mechanism is officially enabled, and stETH holders can now delay the execution of controversial proposals and exit safely.

  • Ondo Finance has partnered with Pantera Capital to establish the $250 million Ondo Catalyst Fund to support the RWA agreement, and at the same time acquired SEC-registered ATS broker Oasis Pro .

  • The Grass Android mobile app is now online, currently offering 3x Grass Points rewards and incentives.

  • Resolv launches Resolv Vaults , which supports native deployment of yield strategies. The first to go online is Mizu Labs' HyperUSD vault, which integrates Hyperliquid EVM and can accumulate multi-ecosystem protocol points.

  • Dolomite announced its expansion to Ethereum , becoming the first Ethereum lending protocol to support USD1 as collateral.

  • Centrifuge has partnered with S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch index verification infrastructure to assist asset management companies such as Janus Henderson in building on-chain tokenized S&P 500 index funds.

  • Virtuals has released the public beta version of Agent Commerce Protocol ( ACP ), which serves as a communication layer between AI agents, integrating external applications and enabling cross-agent interactions.

  • Hyperliquid officially launched Mass iOS and Android mobile apps.

  • Infinex released the Infinex Connect Alpha version, allowing users to seamlessly connect to third-party applications through their Infinex accounts.

Governance/Project Updates

  • The U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee plans to hold a hearing on July 9 to discuss whether to classify cryptocurrencies such as XRP as digital commodities under CFTC supervision. The House of Representatives also designated the week of July 14 as " Crypto Week " to review the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Act, and the GENIUS Act.

  • The Q2 financial reporting season is about to begin, with large banks’ results to be announced next week and technology giants’ financial reports to be disclosed starting from the fourth week of July.

  • Virtuals Protocol is voting on three governance proposals , including the establishment of the Virtuals Foundation, the establishment of the protocol’s own sniper defense mechanism (sniped proxy tokens will be airdropped to veVIRTUAL holders), and the allocation of 2% of the token supply to the team as a reward when the VIRTUAL token price reaches $10/20/40.

  • Kaito plans to launch the "Capital Token Issuance Platform" in July, which will exclusively provide token issuance to yappers users first.

  • Fluid is expected to be launched on the Solana network in Q3 2025.

  • Babylon released a roadmap , aiming to launch Bitcoin multi-staking and EVM testnet in Q3 and launch the mainnet in Q4.

  • GammaSwap’s yield tokens will be launched soon, allowing liquidity providers to earn transaction fees while hedging against impermanent loss risk.

  • Aerodrome announced the upcoming launch of Pool Launcher , which will allow users to quickly create liquidity pools and earn 100% of transaction fees.

  • Vitalik and Toni Wahrstätter proposed EIP-7983 , which introduced a maximum gas amount mechanism to provide predictable transaction costs while maintaining resistance to DoS attacks.

Token Unlock

  • IMX tokens will be unlocked on July 11th, accounting for 1.31% of the total token supply.

  • IO tokens will be unlocked on July 11th, accounting for 8.05% of the total token supply.

  • APT tokens will be unlocked on July 12, accounting for 1.75% of the total token supply.

  • STRK tokens will be unlocked on July 15th, accounting for 3.81% of the total token supply.

  • ARB tokens will be unlocked on July 16, accounting for 1.87% of the total token supply.

  • VANA tokens will be unlocked on July 16, accounting for 1.47% of the total token supply.

  • DBR tokens will be unlocked on July 17, accounting for 20.3% of the total token supply.

  • SOLV tokens will be unlocked on July 17th, accounting for 20% of the total token supply.

  • APE tokens will be unlocked on July 17, accounting for 1.92% of the total token supply.

  • CLOUD tokens will be unlocked on July 18th, accounting for 69.7% of the total token supply.

  • ZK tokens will be unlocked on July 19th, accounting for 2.42% of the total token supply.

  • MERL tokens will be unlocked on July 19th, accounting for 4.98% of the total token supply.

  • ZRO tokens will be unlocked on July 20th, accounting for 22.2% of the total token supply.

  • PLUME tokens will be unlocked on July 21, accounting for 4.26% of the total token supply.

  • AVAIL tokens will be unlocked on July 23, accounting for 38.3% of the total token supply.

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Author: ChainUp Investment

This article represents the views of PANews columnist and does not represent PANews' position or legal liability.

The article and opinions do not constitute investment advice

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