Trading time: Bitcoin supply gap appears in the 70,000-80,000 range, and FOMC interest rate decision becomes the market focus

1. Market observation

Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC

Yesterday, YZi Labs announced its investment in Plume Network, driving a rebound in the RWA sector. QCP Capital's latest analysis shows that despite the constant market noise, Bitcoin remains stable above $80,000, showing strong resilience. Standard Chartered Bank even said that if Trump's "crypto reserve" plan is successfully implemented in 2025, combined with the effect of halving the supply of Bitcoin, it may drive the price of Bitcoin to soar to $500,000.

Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, believes that the Bitcoin bull cycle has ended and expects prices to show a bearish or sideways trend for 6-12 months, pointing out that every on-chain indicator indicates the arrival of a bear market. Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, is cautious about the market outlook, warning that global trade tensions and concerns about the slowdown in the US economy may lead to continued adjustments in US stocks, which in turn drags Bitcoin back to the $73,000-74,000 range. In contrast, David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, is relatively optimistic, believing that the current market sell-off is mainly affected by macro factors and liquidity, and the situation is expected to improve in the next quarter. He specifically pointed out that as bank reserve levels are close to the 10-11% range of GDP, the Federal Reserve may adjust the quantitative tightening (QT) program to maintain financial stability, which will provide support for asset prices.

From a technical perspective, Glassnode data shows that there is an obvious supply gap in the $70,000 to $80,000 range for Bitcoin, where trading hours are short, holdings are small, and support is weak. Currently, about 20% of Bitcoin supply is in a loss-making state, and the cost of holding is higher than the current price of $83,000. If it falls below the $80,000 support level, $73,000 will become a key support level.

In the Ethereum market, Standard Chartered Bank recently significantly lowered its ETH price forecast for the end of 2025 from $10,000 to $4,000. This adjustment is mainly due to factors such as the Layer 2 expansion plan weakening the ETH market value and the possible continued decline in the ETH/BTC ratio. It is worth noting that the Ethereum Foundation is actively listening to community feedback and exploring operational changes to adapt to market changes.

In terms of regulation and policy, QCP Capital said that although the lower-than-expected CPI data in the United States last week provided a temporary respite, the possibility of the Fed turning dovish remains limited amid ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, but market volatility is likely to remain at a high level amid policy uncertainty.

Macquarie Bank's latest report warns the overall market, pointing out that Trump's economic policies may trigger a sharp adjustment in the stock market. Unless trade policy turns moderate and spending is cut, real consumer spending in the United States may slow significantly. The S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 8% from its high last month, and the Nasdaq index has fallen nearly 12% from its peak in December last year. Against this background, the market is closely watching the results of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting this week, especially the potential adjustments to the quantitative tightening plan, which may have an important impact on the trend of the cryptocurrency market.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 18)

Bitcoin: $82,671.90 (-11.31% year-to-date), daily spot volume $24.471 billion
Ethereum: $1,894.96 (-42.82% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $11.089 billion
Fear and corruption index: 34 (fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.4 Gwei
Market share: BTC 60.7%, ETH 8.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, UXLINK, AUCTION, BTC, CARV
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9681
Sector ups and downs: RWA sector rose 9%, BSC ecosystem rose 2.68%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 101,237 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$182 million, including BTC liquidation of US$44.73 million and ETH liquidation of US$29.98 million