Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we review the market with data and seize opportunities through trends, covering macroeconomics, US equities, precious metals, crude oil, and crypto assets, providing insight into key changes in global markets. Produced by PANews.

Macro Market

After an 18-hour marathon negotiation in Switzerland, the US and Iran reached an agreement document. Qatar and Pakistan announced the establishment of a high-level supervisory committee and set a 60-day roadmap for a final agreement. The market quickly began to reprice geopolitical risks, with the short-term supply disruption risk in the Strait of Hormuz significantly decreasing. However, Trump once again warned Iran that if it condones Hezbollah attacks, military strikes will resume, keeping market sentiment cautious.

Brent crude oil rose more than 2% in early trading to $81.67, but as the negotiation results materialized, it subsequently turned down more than 1%, falling back to around $80; WTI crude oil also gave up its gains after rising to a high of $77.79. US Vice President Vance stated that both sides have made "significant progress," and Axios, citing US diplomats, reported that the US and Iran have achieved positive results on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanon ceasefire mechanism.

Spot gold rebounded to around $4,220, and silver broke through $67, as safe-haven funds did not completely exit. Morgan Stanley commodity strategist Amy Gower believes that what truly determines gold's direction is not war, but oil prices, the Fed's path, and ETF fund flows. If ETF funds cannot return, the $5,200 target will face challenges.

The US dollar continued to be the biggest winner. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh released a clear hawkish signal at his first interest rate meeting, deleting forward guidance and downplaying the role of the dot plot. The market began to bet on a 25BP rate hike before October. The two-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.22%, a one-year high. JPMorgan Asset Management CIO Bob Michele warned that reduced transparency will increase risk premiums, while Pimco economist Tiffany Wilding expects systemic increases in future bond market volatility.

The global foreign exchange market began a reshuffle. Last Friday, the US Dollar Index broke through the 101 level intraday, a new high since May 2025. Over the past month, the Norwegian Krone depreciated over 4%, and the Brazilian Real, Australian Dollar, and South Korean Won all fell more than 2% against the dollar. Pictet Asset Management co-head Shaniel Ramjee believes that US economic resilience and rising real yields continue to strengthen the dollar's appeal.

What to watch next:

June 25 US May PCE Price Index: Market expects core PCE to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year rate rising from 3.3% to 3.4%. If it exceeds expectations, it will further strengthen rate hike expectations.
June 25 US to release Q1 2026 GDP final estimate: Market expects the final estimate to maintain an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate of 1.6%, with the year-over-year rate rising to 3.4%. Analysts believe that thanks to continued investment in AI-related infrastructure, Q1 equipment spending is expected to see a significant jump, while consumer spending growth is expected to slow.

US Stock Market Dynamics

With only four trading days last week, the three major US stock indices continued to rise. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose about 1%, while the Nasdaq gained over 2%. The AI capital expenditure boom remains the core logic driving the market upward.

However, Wall Street funds have already started defensive positioning in advance. Goldman Sachs data shows that hedge funds turned from four consecutive weeks of net buying to net selling between June 12 and 18, with tech ETFs becoming the focus of short selling, and the short-to-long ratio for macro products reaching 3.8:1.

AI infrastructure expansion continues. Marvell Technology and Flex will officially join the S&P 500 on Monday, as the market continues to bet on the prosperity of the computing power industry chain.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin fell 3.7% last week, holding the 200-week moving average for another week and has now rebounded to around $64,000. Bitfinex believes that the current cycle's realized price support level for BTC is around $54,000 below, while a large number of short-term holder trapped positions are clustered near $68,000 above, still facing strong selling pressure.

Bulls believe that if BTC breaks through $66,000, it could quickly surge towards $73,000, $76,000, or even $79,000, and reclaiming $83,000 would declare the return of a bull market. Well-known analyst KillaXBT pointed out that historically, after every range breakdown, a retest of the 0.5 Fibonacci level occurs, with the corresponding area for this cycle at $70,000-$71,000, but the prerequisite is to firmly re-establish above $67,000.

On the other hand, multiple analysts believe that the liquidity in the $60,000-$62,000 range below is too large for market makers to ignore, and a retest of $60,000 may occur this week.

Today's Highlights:

Binance Alpha will list Arcium (ARX) on June 22
Starknet v0.14.3 plans to launch on mainnet on June 22, introducing a dynamic STRK gas fee mechanism
Zama, Morpho, and Steakhouse jointly launch a confidential DeFi yield vault on Ethereum, with deposits opening on June 23
MegaETH (MEGA) will unlock approximately 250 million tokens on June 23, worth about $15.77 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: RE, WLD, XRP, BTC, ID
Bitcoin Spot ETF: Net outflow of $227 million last week, marking 6 consecutive weeks of net outflows
Ethereum Spot ETF: Net outflow of $10.05 million last week, marking 6 consecutive weeks of net outflows
HYPE Spot ETF: Net inflow of $27.95 million last week

Today's top gainers among the top 100 by market cap: SKYAI up 10.7%, TRUMP up 6.2%, WLD up 5.8%, VVV up 5.4%, ENA up 4.3%.

Asia-Pacific Market Update

The Nikkei 225 Index broke through 72,800 points intraday, hitting another record high. AI infrastructure-related stocks continued to lead the gains, as the market temporarily ignored the Bank of Japan's rate hike to 1% and Middle East risks. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed support for the BOJ achieving its 2% inflation target, while Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warned that if policy tightening is delayed, inflation could spiral out of control.

The market expects the BOJ to raise rates again as early as September. Although May CPI was only 1.4%, rising energy prices could still push inflation higher again.

The South Korean market became one of the strongest performing regions in Asia. SK Hynix briefly surpassed Samsung Electronics intraday to become the largest company by market cap in South Korea, closing up 5.6%, with a total market cap of approximately $1.35 trillion. SK Hynix has cumulatively risen about 350% this year, far exceeding Samsung Electronics' 194% gain.

South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of June surged 60.4% year-over-year, with chip exports skyrocketing 188.4% and computer product exports soaring 293.3%. Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong warned that record bonuses at tech companies could fuel broad-based inflation, as May CPI has already risen to 3.1%, a two-year high.

LG Group concept stocks surged collectively, with LG Electronics rising as much as 12% intraday and LG CNS up 14%, as the market bets on their collaboration with Nvidia in robotics and physical AI.

The central bank kept the LPR unchanged for the 13th consecutive month, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year-plus LPR at 3.5%. Galaxy Securities believes the cycle of monetary tightening may be nearing its end, and there is still room for a downward adjustment in the five-year LPR in the second half of the year.

A-shares continued to surge in early trading, with the ChiNext Index briefly up over 2.4%. Semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and large financials were active, while robotics, innovative drugs, and commercial aerospace sectors saw adjustments.

The Hong Kong stock AI sector continued its frenzy. Zhipu rose as much as 29% intraday, with its stock price touching HK$2,980 and total market cap reaching HK$1.207 trillion; MINIMAX followed closely with a surge of over 20%, Smart-Core Holdings rose 12%, Innoscience rose 11%, SMIC rose 7%, and GigaDevice broke through HK$1,000.

What to watch next:

Week of June 22: The US SEC may approve SK Hynix's US listing plan as early as this week (expected to list as early as August), which could become an absolute catalyst for the revaluation of global chip assets in this cycle.
June 23 MSCI announces annual market classification review results: This will determine whether South Korea can enter the developed market watchlist.

A dormant address containing 400 BTC was activated after 12.5 years of dormancy

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