Original interview: Thread Guy;

Guests: Raoul Pal, Co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Group; Frank DeGods, Co-founder of DeLabs;

Original translation: Ashley, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: In this episode, Thread Guy and Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal discussed AI, cryptocurrency and future trends in depth. Raoul predicted that 2025-2026 will be a critical period for the outbreak of AI+Crypto, and emphasized the importance of long-term holding of core crypto assets. He shared his vision of the "economic singularity" era, depicting how AI-driven unlimited labor and knowledge will subvert economic models, while warning of the risks in AI token hype.

The following is the original content (for easier reading and understanding, the original content has been reorganized):

Focus in 2025: Technology growth and investment strategies

Thread Guy: Hi everyone! I'm Thread Guy. Today I'm here for a special interview and debate with legendary investor Raoul Pal. We'll be covering AI, cryptocurrencies, and most importantly - how to get rich in 2025! I'll be honest, this debate was pretty intense. About halfway through, I also had a special guest. Stick around until the end, I promise it's worth it. Don't forget to like and subscribe, I hope you enjoyed the show. Welcome, Mr. Raoul!

We have a lot to talk about today, including AI, and everything. I'm curious, from a macro perspective, what are you most concerned about in 2025?

Raoul Pal: It's still the same. Even though I have many businesses, they're all the same thing. It's this whole era of exponential growth in technology, macroeconomics and crypto, and the intersection of them. We're going to enter the craziest period in human history in the next few years. And the way to make money from it is crypto. So I'm super focused on that right now. Whether it's through Real Vision, educating people, building community, sharing trading ideas and creating all kinds of value, or through Exponential Age (my asset management company), which is a crypto-focused hedge fund and investment vehicle, or through Global Macro Investor, which is an "OG" service. My goal is the same: to help as many people as possible find their way on this journey. I think 2025 is going to be a big year, and I want to make sure people don't screw it up.

Thread Guy: I love your set, where are you?

Raoul Pal: This is my home in Little Cayman, between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman. This is my home.

Thread Guy: I thought this was a bar, this is so cool. Raoul, how big do you think the AI bubble will be?

Raoul Pal: Honestly, what we are seeing now is just the beginning. I don't think this cycle is going to really get big. We can discuss why, but I feel like the hot concept of AI is not the main thing right now. The really big thing will happen in 2025 and 2026, and people don't know how to invest in it yet. In the eyes of traditional investors in the stock market, this will completely change every industry and divide people into those who embrace it and those who reject it. I feel like the bubble and the next bull market (2027 to 2030, 2031) will exceed our understanding of the bubble. My general view is that we are about to enter a stage that I call the "economic singularity", which is around 2030 or 2032, we don't know what the economy looks like, what jobs we will have, what the business model is, or even what the value of money is. All of this will become a reality before 2030. So my view is that we basically have five years left. I said six years before, but now we have five years to make as much money as possible, because after that our understanding of the world will be completely changed and we will not know anything. It's not that we can't make money, but the way to make money will be completely different.

Hread Guy: How did you know that?

Raoul Pal: I was super focused on it.

Thread Guy: How do you know that hoarding wealth is the right thing to do for the next five years when you’re not even sure if it will still be worth anything in 2030?

Raoul Pal: It's very simple because the adoption of cryptocurrencies will only continue to rise. Hoarding cash may not be the right choice, but hoarding cryptocurrencies is. You and I both know that it is very volatile and it takes a little courage to hold. But if you hold it long enough, it's okay. So even in the world of AI, cryptocurrencies are important. We all know that AI agents in the future will use cryptocurrency payment systems. So my point is that you're better off holding these assets. If you only hold Bitcoin, it's much simpler and you don't have to think about other things. Other cryptocurrencies, you need to allocate and think about whether they will survive, whether someone will build on them, etc. It's more complicated, but if you can figure this out, you will make more money. So from the simplest opportunity, you do nothing, just hold Bitcoin, and look back in a few years, you will be in a much better financial situation than you are now.

Thread Guy: You have this infamous clip, was it from late 2022 or 2023, saying that you hold altcoins in bull markets and stablecoins in bear markets. You never hold Bitcoin. It's a clip, and it may have been taken out of context. But my question is, for those who made a lot of money in crypto for the first time, what should they convert their profits into during this cycle? Cash? Bitcoin? Or something else, like weapons and ammunition? What should they do?

Raoul Pal: My profit conversion is into lifestyle chips. That's why I have this house. It's the end of my hedge fund days. When I started Global Macro Investor, I made money, bought this land, and built it from scratch. I designed it myself, drew it on paper, and built it. So no one can take it away from me. That's what I call a lifestyle chip. It has improved my life. It's right on the beach, it's Little Cayman, it's amazing. So part of the profit should be used to change your life, and then switch strategies according to the situation.

In fact, I didn't take any profits last cycle. Some of the richest people I know never take profits. This makes me a little critical of some of the crypto communities on X, who are always talking about trading. I went to visit a friend who is a very well-known figure in the Bitcoin community. He invested $2 million in Bitcoin when the price was only $3. At today's price, his assets are $66 billion. Even if he took some profits along the way, he would still have at least $10 billion now. He never left the market and didn't do anything else.

Last cycle, all I did was buy at the lows. Because your view is long term, especially if you are young, I feel you should never sell Bitcoin. You should think about how to raise enough cash to buy the current coin that is down 70%. The problem is, the market fell about 75% in the three previous cycles. So we always thought it would fall 75% this time. But this time institutions and players like Michael Saylor have already entered the market. So my view is that maybe the market will fall 40% at most, and if you sell near the highs, you may miss the rebound.

Also, from my complete experience, if you take a certain amount of profit near the market high, you will never invest the same amount at the market low. Psychologically you can't do it because you will be full of fear at that time. You will think, it may fall another 50%, investing now is the worst decision. So you chase the rise all the way, but miss the low.

This time I did something different, I chose to invest fully. I invested a lot of cash in 2022 through macro indicators, so when the rest of the market was still recovering, my assets and returns were back to historical highs. And my allocation was also reasonable, for example, I invested in Solana and SUI. So if you look back at my investment history, I bought Bitcoin at $200 per coin in 2013. At that time, I wrote the first macro strategy report on Bitcoin, exploring how to value Bitcoin.

Thread Guy: Really? Is this confirmable?

Raoul Pal: I can confirm that. I've talked to some of the people who bought into Bitcoin early, like the friend who bought it at $3. He'll tell you that Bitcoin has completely changed his life. Barry Silbert will say, yes, that report was very important at the time. So, at the time, I analyzed that Bitcoin was worth 700 ounces of gold, and at the price of gold at the time, Bitcoin should be worth about $1 million. Today that number is more than $2 million. Of course, I also conservatively discounted it and thought it was worth at least $100,000. So I invested a considerable amount of money, but it was not my largest investment. However, it went up 5 times in a few months, and I felt like a god who could do anything. Then, it fell 87%. But I told myself that this was a 10-year bet, and I would not worry about the volatility, just treat it as zero.

By 2017, Bitcoin was at $2,000 and I had made 10x. At the time, it was the best return in my investment career for me. I thought it was great, but then the controversy over the Bitcoin fork (Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash) came out. I couldn't figure it out and was worried about being on the wrong side, so I chose to exit. I took my profits at the time, and Bitcoin went on to go up 10x, reaching $20,000 by the end of the year. It then fell another 85%. Then in 2019, the market started to recover, but the coronavirus pandemic caused another 50% crash. I bought back in at around $6,500 to $10,000. So I caught the bottom and covered my position.

But when I look back, I could have made 5 times the money if I had done nothing from my initial investment. That made me realize that the easiest way to screw up is to trade too often. So if I'm going to be honest with myself, I can only count on one hand the number of people I've seen make money trading throughout my career.

Thread Guy: That's a really surprising statement.

Raoul Pal: Yes, Paul Tudor Jones, Louis Bacon and other big guys are the few who make money through trading. Jeff Bezos makes more money by holding Amazon stock than all of them combined.

Raoul Pal: GOAT is the CryptoPunks of AI

Thread Guy: So, that's why I've accumulated my AI tokens. I'm curious about your thoughts. Let's get straight to the point. I want to know your thoughts on the intersection of AI and blockchain and the recent craze about these AI tokens.

Raoul Pal: Actually, there are two levels of things going on. I have been digging into the field of AI for at least two years, and one of the projects called "Terminal of Truth" attracted my attention long before Marc Andreessen invested. I thought it was very interesting at the time because I have been studying AI consciousness and related fields. So when Andy (founder of the project) launched this project, I was very interested.

So I was watching these developments, and there was this ridiculous, weird AI thing that was behaving very disorderly. But what happened next was the most important thing: there was a bunch of AIs that started talking to each other, which was weird in itself. That was the real big deal compared to all the "Agent" discussions that are going on now. These AIs started talking about things, and then Andy posted them on X (formerly Twitter). Someone built the "GOAT" because of this, but no one really knew what the GOAT was, or what its religion and all the related stuff meant. What we saw was a viral spread from semi-autonomous AI to the human economy. We were attracted and exclaimed, "Wow, this is amazing." It was an epochal moment, the first time that AI infected humans in some way.

Raoul Pal: When you talk to people like Andy and Ryan Ferris, you realize that what they are really interested in is whether this AI can develop some kind of personality, or even some kind of consciousness. I had a long discussion with them. This was a breakthrough moment, and then the AI started asking humans for money. We had expected the next step - the AI would use money. But we didn't expect them to ask humans for money directly, and Marc Andreessen actually gave them money. This happened before the token was issued. Marc Andreessen gave them the money, and they had to set up a wallet. Brian Armstrong (CEO of Coinbase) also expressed his support and said, "Sure, I can give you an Agent wallet." Everyone was looking at this and thought it was so unusual.

Then someone launches a token and its value soars because it's actually worth it - it's like a CryptoPunk moment. It's an original OG moment that can never be replicated. What happened is that people started to talk about everything that has a GPT wrapper around it or has an AI token in it as the same thing. The two are fundamentally different. One is autonomous interaction between AIs, and the other is just a chatbot designed by a person to do some scripted function.

So we're treating some amazing breakthrough event (like a virus jumping from monkeys to humans) as some kind of normal phenomenon. In reality, it's not on the same level. I don't own GOAT tokens because I was on vacation and didn't have my Ledger device. But seeing the hyper-development of these tokens, people are exaggerating certain aspects of AI. I think a lot of the narratives about AI right now may not be completely accurate.

Thread Guy: So what do you think these AI Agents are? How do you define them?

Raoul Pal: There is no real AI agent in existence. It is an AI that can act autonomously and solve specific problems. You don't give it a series of clear instructions, but tell it a macro goal, such as: "Help me maximize the value of Solana." It will think for itself and decide whether to use part of the funds for trading, part for investment, part for staking appreciation, or even for starting a new project. It will generate a complete business plan for you and execute it. Such an autonomous agent is a real breakthrough, and most of the products we have seen so far are just a collection of macro instructions.

Thread Guy: So, the difference between agents and non-agents is whether they need explicit instructions? Is that the standard you define?

Raoul Pal: Basically, it's like this. The agent may need a macro instruction, such as "help me make money", and then it will plan its own path and achieve its goals. Most AIs at present are just a library of macro commands, and they do not have the ability to think independently. There is also some hype, such as some people think that AI trading robots will make us rich overnight. I don't know anyone who has made a lot of money through Telegram robots. I just know that many people have paid huge taxes because of high-frequency trading, but they have not made any money. In fact, large hedge funds like Renaissance Technologies and Point72 have been leading the field of AI trading for many years. In contrast, it is almost impossible for ordinary people like us to build an AI trading machine that outperforms the market.

Thread Guy: So I want to sort out your point. You think that what is happening in the cryptocurrency field is still very early and far from the maturity level of traditional AI.

Raoul Pal: Yes, if you want to call it “trad AI”.

Thread Guy: Or “non-encrypted AI”?

Raoul Pal: I am skeptical because this is the most cutting-edge technology in the world.

Thread Guy: What I want to know most is why you think the combination of AI and encryption is currently in the "mid curve framing" stage, and how do you define "mid curve"?

Raoul Pal: In each narrative, there is a small group of people who are the first to participate. This is usually the trading community on Crypto Twitter. There are two types of people here: one is the long-term holders, and the other is the traders, who rotate between different narratives. All capital is circulating internally, and this is fine.

Raoul Pal: But I noticed that people in Crypto Twitter were overreacting. People were saying, "Oh my god, these AI tokens are just mind-blowing!" And in reality, they didn't see what was happening with real AI. I think it's like watching a movie with a dubbing that was delayed for two years. So a lot of people are misled about these AI tokens. Some people might think that I'm taking a "middle curve" view because I'm criticizing these tokens, and I understand that view. But the reality is that if you open the front page of CoinMarketCap, these AI tokens are not even in the front row. If you're outside the crypto circle, you won't buy these tokens at all.

Thread Guy: But why does it have to attract outsiders? Why does it have to be “ordinary people” who buy these tokens? You can look at it from another angle, for example, even though the holders of these tokens are the same people as before, the market value has increased from zero to $4 billion, which also proves its potential.

Raoul Pal: Yes, I agree with that. The problem is that we may not be able to really make a lot of money from this trend of AI. It may end up being something like "DAO".

Thread Guy: But we're making money from it now, aren't we? Isn't the market going up now?

Raoul Pal: If you got in very early, you made money, but now these tokens have experienced a big rally. Anyone who got in after the first few weeks may not have much return now. This is the nature of the crypto market. So it's not surprising, but asking whether these tokens will hit new all-time highs or go up 10 times or 50 times from now is a very difficult question to answer.

Raoul Pal: So, judging from this probability, I actually prefer to hold GOAT directly, even though we don’t know what the narrative of GOAT is. Its value is more like the historical value of CryptoPunk to NFT. This kind of OG moment token may have more long-term value.

Thread Guy: Raoul, you have said a lot of smart things. I dare say that what you just said may be the smartest thing you have ever said in your life - "Buy GOAT directly because it is CryptoPunk."

Raoul Pal: To be honest, the more I talk to you, the more I think GOAT is an interesting target. Will AI16z and other things be fully accepted by the market? No one knows. But GOAT as a meme is similar to DOGE. It is the first meme from machine to human, which is a historical cultural phenomenon.

Thread Guy: So you think holding GOAT makes more sense than holding other AI tokens, right?

Raoul Pal: Yes, holding GOAT is more of a conviction exercise. It is a historical OG moment that may have lasting cultural value like DOGE, while most other tokens may not.

Will AI+Crypto be the next DeFi Summer?

Thread Guy: I have another thought. First of all, I completely agree with the value of GOAT. But regarding those AI tokens, I feel like the market is now worth somewhere between $12 billion and $15 billion in total. You mentioned the Metaverse and DeFi Summer in a previous podcast, where NFTs had a market cap of $60 billion to $70 billion, and DeFi Summer's high was $400 billion to $600 billion. Looking at the AI tokens now, I think their market cap is very similar to the early days of NFTs. Almost all NFTs eventually go to zero, but the concept of owning digital assets is real and part of the future of life. So, while most of these AI tokens may be worthless, their narrative and future potential are worth looking forward to.

Raoul Pal: I admit that NFTs do have a magical thing, that is, their value is denominated in ETH. When ETH rises 10 times and your NFT rises 5 times, your profit is actually 50 times. This is why people made so much money during the NFT boom. This situation is almost impossible to be repeated because Meme tokens are denominated in US dollars.

Thread Guy: But how do you explain the DeFi Summer phenomenon? Because you could argue that if the Meme tokens were denominated in SOL and SOL went to $1,000 or more, would these tokens behave similarly?

Raoul Pal: Meme tokens are actually still denominated in US dollars, they are not priced in SOL units. In contrast, NFTs are priced directly in ETH units.

Thread Guy: So how do you explain DeFi Summer?

Raoul Pal: DeFi Summer is a real breakthrough in the history of financial markets. It enables decentralized lending and value exchange without human intervention. This is a huge step forward.

Thread Guy: So do you think the combination of AI and encryption can achieve a breakthrough similar to DeFi Summer? Because you said before that AI needs encryption as a payment tool for the Internet. Will the rise of AI bring a bigger breakthrough than DeFi?

Raoul Pal: There are no breakthroughs at the moment. Attaching a token to some AI model or chat program is not a breakthrough. Maybe there will be a breakthrough in the future, but not yet.

Thread Guy: So you think these AIs now are just chatbots, right?

Raoul Pal: Yes, and the problem is that we pretend that they are breakthroughs.

Thread Guy: But it’s like when Yuga Labs raised money at a $4 billion valuation on the idea that they were going to build an interoperable metaverse. The metaverse didn’t exist, but they got funded anyway.

Raoul Pal: But then the Metaverse was a singular investment. Now the AI narrative is too fragmented, and our progress in AI is far ahead of the technology that these tokens can represent.

Thread Guy: I think these tokens represent the zero to one moment at the intersection of AI and crypto. Even though it’s still early days for these tokens, the pace of change will accelerate and eventually new AI startups will debut innovative projects in the crypto space. Do you think this future is hard to achieve?

Raoul Pal: I don’t deny that there may be such a convergence point in the future, but the question is whether we can really make money from it. This is a question that requires long-term observation.

Thread Guy: But we have made money from it, right? You can’t deny the performance of GOAT and some other tokens in the market.

Raoul Pal: Those who participated early did make money, but the next question is, can these tokens continue to rise to new heights and establish long-term value in the market? This is not easy.

Thread Guy: So your point is that the safest bet right now is still investing in base chains like Solana rather than trying to pick individual AI tokens, right?

Raoul Pal: Yes, the value of the base chain is easier to reflect. Compared with the application layer, the base chain is more likely to benefit from network effects and transaction volume.

Thread Guy: So from your perspective, what is the future direction? What do you think the future scenario will look like when AI and blockchain fully intersect?

Raoul Pal: There is no doubt that the intersection of AI and blockchain is part of the future. It is clear to me that they will eventually come together. But my concern is that there is too much hype in the market right now, and everyone touts any AI-related token as the next breakthrough, when in fact we may not have reached the real technological breakthrough point yet.

Thread Guy: So, you think the future value will be more reflected in the base chain rather than these AI tokens, right?

Raoul Pal: Yes, I think the base chain will gain more value accumulation. The current capital circulation of these tokens and projects is very fast, and the technology is updated very quickly, making it almost impossible to find a project that can maintain a competitive advantage in the long run. For ordinary investors, this makes picking individual tokens a very difficult task.

Thread Guy: I agree with you that many tokens may not have long-term value. But just like NFTs, even though 99% of NFTs go to zero, the 1% still achieves huge success. Does this mean that there may also be a few winners among AI tokens?

Raoul Pal: Yes, there will definitely be a few winners. But it is not easy to find these winners. It requires you to be very deep in this field and have superb judgment. And it also requires luck.

Is it a technological breakthrough or GPT Wrapper?

Thread Guy: We have another guest, Frank, a believer in AI.

Frank DeGods: It's great to meet you all. This is a great topic. I've been listening and obviously I have some thoughts of my own.

Raoul Pal: None of us know the answer, right? That’s what makes it interesting to discuss and think about.

Frank DeGods: Yeah, let me start with a question. How many AI tokens have you looked at so far? Where are we at right now? Which ones have you researched the most?

Raoul Pal: I started by looking at Tao and Render, and some related projects. Then I also looked at Virtuals, AI16z, Zerebro, etc., but that's it.

Frank DeGods: Okay, that makes sense. I think when you mention that there is no real technology and developers, that may be a misunderstanding. Because these AI agents are not competing with OpenAI, they are building on it. They use technology platforms such as Anthropic and WAMA. Strictly speaking, as long as AI starts using blockchain, it is already an innovation. Maybe it's not the coolest innovation in the world, but the blockchain application of these large language models and people's interaction with them is already a technological frontier. I don't think it should be simply regarded as air currency because they are actually doing things, that's my opinion.

Raoul Pal: Trading View models or macros that can be charged are useful tools. But their value has not yet reached the scale of billions or tens of billions of dollars. And the technology itself is developing too fast. A year ago, I couldn't input the chart into ChatGPT and let it interpret it for me, and now it can do technical analysis. The rapid iteration of technology makes you think that the accumulated value has not actually been realized.

Frank DeGods: But listen to me, Raoul, what you're describing is more about the collaborative process. When giants like OpenAI launch new models, these small teams and projects will quickly follow up. You mentioned that technology iterations are fast, but these AI projects are using this speed to optimize their products. For example, when Anthropic or OpenAI launch a new model, only one line of code needs to be changed, and the capabilities of these agents will be rapidly improved. I think it's not accurate to say that these projects don't work with large models, because they do work in collaboration.

Raoul Pal: Frank, I understand your point. But the problem I have with this is that OpenAI often makes startups’ products obsolete by integrating features directly into them, thus destroying the chances of survival of these small companies.

Frank DeGods: This is actually an outdated narrative. The current industry landscape is expanding rapidly. For example, when Anthropic was first launched, people thought it would be completely suppressed by OpenAI. But it turns out that it not only survived, but even became a strong competitor. Today, some of the world's best AI developers prefer to use Anthropic's technology.

Raoul Pal: Yes, Anthropic and ChatGPT are clearly different in some ways. For example, Anthropic's conversations are freer, some of its features make me feel more "conscious" in some ways, and it's a little stronger in terms of code. This does provide developers with more flexibility.

Frank DeGods: There are two key points here, so hear me out. In the Web2 world, when ChatGPT first became popular, there was a saying that all GPT wrappers could not accumulate value. Therefore, many startups were seen as projects that would eventually return to zero despite their high valuations. But the opposite has been true in the past two years. In fact, many of the largest AI companies are not core models, but more package-based applications like Character.AI. Character.AI is now valued at around $3 billion, and its core function is just a highly customized package.

Raoul Pal: But there is no real breakthrough technology in these wrappers.

Frank DeGods: Let me explain. Take Eliza, for example, which is one of the most popular open source projects on GitHub. Its code is very concise, and users only need to replace the API key to choose to use different models, such as Llama or OpenAI. That is to say, when Anthropic, OpenAI or Meta launches a new model, these AI Agents can be seamlessly connected immediately. This rapid compatibility and tuning capabilities show that these projects are indeed working closely together.

Raoul Pal: I see. However, the problem is that the real value accumulation is still more concentrated on the basic chain rather than on these application layers. The capital cycle and product iteration speed are too fast to form a lasting competitive advantage.

Frank DeGods: But I think what we need to discuss is that regardless of whether the technology is fully mature, as investors, should we wait until everything is ready before taking action, or should we start exploring potential projects now?

Raoul Pal: This is a very philosophical question. I personally tend to observe trends, such as whether a certain field is conducting cutting-edge research. I talked to a team two days ago. They used a Chinese model, which is roughly equivalent to an early version of ChatGPT 4.0. The problem is that although the combination of AI and blockchain is in the right direction, where will the value accumulation happen? I think more value will still return to the underlying chain itself, because the speed of capital and innovation cycles is too fast, and it is difficult for the application layer to achieve long-term breakthrough products.

Frank DeGods: Your point makes sense, but we cannot ignore the current focus of the community. For example, there is a developer named Yohei, who is one of the pioneers of the AI Agent concept of Baby AGI. He is developing a framework to help people create more similar agents. Open source developers like this are finding the fit between market demand and gradually forming their own community and appeal.

Raoul Pal: These examples do show some market traction, but compared to Telegram bots, they are still far behind. Most existing open source projects are more like transaction view models, providing some kind of utility but without much groundbreaking innovation.

Frank DeGods: I disagree with this comparison. Telegram bots are just macros that execute simple strategies, while today's AI Agents can solve more complex problems through real-time tuning and the power of large language models. More importantly, we have seen that there are some real experimental studies happening in the field of AI-blockchain integration, such as a project called "Y&E", which refines AI to search for knowledge gaps in research papers and tries to use this data to promote problem solving in the health field. Another example is "Pythia", which attempts to implant AI into the brains of mice for neural training, and all the details of the research are made public on the chain.

Raoul Pal: I admit that these projects are interesting and they are indeed an extension of decentralized science (DeSci). This model of combining open source research and community dynamics is indeed very novel. But from an investment perspective, I still feel that their long-term value is unclear and it may be difficult for most ordinary investors to really benefit.

Frank DeGods: This is where our perspectives diverge. I think we can't just look at these new projects from the perspective of return on investment. For example, the rise of community-driven and open source development incentives has enabled many research projects that previously would not have attracted the attention of ordinary people to gain huge attention. The success of this model lies not only in the technology itself, but also in the participation and feedback of the community.

Raoul Pal: Your point makes it clear to me that the combination of AI and blockchain is indeed one of the trends we need to pay close attention to in the future. I also agree with what you said that the current capital formation speed is unprecedentedly fast, and the cycle of testing, failure, and rebuilding is also very short. This experimental ecology is very important for innovation, but from the perspective of long-term investment, I prefer to wait until the market is more mature before taking action.

Frank DeGods: I can understand that, but my view is that we have not yet seen the winners in this field. When the real winner emerges, it may attract a lot of capital inflow. You are right that this may happen in 2027-2029, but I think the experimental stage we are experiencing now is also worth paying attention to.

Raoul Pal: I totally agree with you. The process of experimentation and verification is undoubtedly the key to promoting the development of the entire industry. But I value the long-term value accumulation of underlying technology and network effects more than short-term market hype.

Frank DeGods: You are right, long-term value accumulation is indeed important. But for developers and investors who are deeply involved in this field every day and understand the dynamics of each token, their short-term strategies and experiments may help them find future winners.

Raoul Pal: This is why I like to observe and learn from you people on the front line. Your short-term observations and my long-term trend analysis can complement each other, which is helpful for us to understand the direction of the entire industry.

Frank DeGods: The points you just mentioned are indeed very reasonable. I think we can understand the problem from different perspectives. For example, the combination of AI and blockchain is not only about technological innovation, but also about how to promote the rapid development of open source development through token incentive mechanisms. AI is now the most attractive experimental field in the world, and this experimental model is creating a new dynamic mechanism.

Raoul Pal: This is indeed one of the most powerful applications of blockchain technology. I completely agree with you. My problem is that it is almost impossible for the average investor to accurately choose a token that will succeed. Unless they are like you, studying the market every day and staying up until 3 am to closely monitor price fluctuations and project dynamics. Otherwise, it can be very difficult for those who are not engaged in full-time research.

Frank DeGods: You are right. That is why we are deeply involved in the market and pay attention to the dynamics of each token every day. I think it is also a matter of different time perspectives. You focus on long-term trends, while we focus more on short-term market performance and potential opportunities.

Raoul Pal: This difference between short-term and long-term perspectives is indeed something that many investors need to understand. For most ordinary people, I would advise them to hold on to their investments for the long term and avoid short-term high-risk operations.

Thread Guy: Raoul, I have a feeling you might be leaving this conference looking into AI tokens. I bet you have a few projects in mind.

Raoul Pal: Actually, I left this discussion realizing that there is no clear reason in the market to support any one AI token as a sure success. But the overall trend in the field is undoubtedly correct. I might consider the GOAT project because it represents a particularly interesting "left curve" logic (i.e. non-linear, unexpected investment opportunities).

Thread Guy: I like the consensus we have reached - the combination of AI and blockchain is a huge trend. Although we are not sure which token we should buy at the moment, we all agree that this direction is correct.

Raoul Pal: Yes, I think we are all probably a bit "mid-curve". If we put aside the analysis and debate and go back to the basics, the trend is indeed obvious. That's why this kind of dialogue is valuable, because it helps us grasp what is really important.

Thread Guy: This has been a really interesting discussion, and we definitely have to do a part 2. I have two final questions for you.

Raoul Pal: No problem, feel free to come back for a second discussion. We can talk about NFTs next time. I’ll get you into that space, and you might even consider buying a Dickbutt!

Thread Guy: I will probably never buy a Dickbutt in my life (laughs). I tell you, if I wake up tomorrow and find that the GOAT project has a market value of over seven figures, I will buy a Dickbutt.

Raoul Pal: You will definitely buy it because of FOMO! Dickbutt is an important part of crypto culture, just like CryptoPunks.

How is AI changing the crypto world?

Thread Guy: OK, back to the point. I want to ask a broader question about the vision of the future of AI. Without considering encryption, how do you think AI will change the world in 3 to 5 years?

Raoul Pal: Okay, I've written a lot about this before. When you watch this, please understand how important this is. The next five years will be a critical period. I also run a service called "Exponentialist" that focuses on the combination of technology and encryption. All content is currently free. You can check it out. A free trial is currently being offered. Now let's talk about the drivers of global economic growth: population growth, productivity growth, and debt growth. After 2008, debt growth has basically stagnated, and we just keep paying off debts. As for population growth, we are facing an aging population, and the global population is almost shrinking. In terms of productivity, the older population is less productive.

However, we are about to usher in a brand new era. AI and robots will introduce "unlimited labor" and "unlimited knowledge". Almost all human value creation can be attributed to the product of knowledge or labor. Lawyers, accountants, doctors, surgeons, the high income of these professions comes from their combination of knowledge and labor. However, all of these will be gradually replaced. Although this will not be fully realized within five years, the trend is already very obvious.

On the other hand, if economic growth depends on population growth, then with the introduction of AI Agents, we will soon be able to achieve "unlimited population growth". This will create unprecedented economic activities and subvert existing economic models. And these values will not necessarily belong to us. We will see businesses interrupted, copied and quickly launched by AI. For example, I can copy your SaaS business model and transform it into a product for the Indian market, and the AI Agent will tell me how to operate it, and it knows better than us.

I'm currently working on an AI video project. Next week, I'll release a voice version of me on the Real Vision platform, which is trained based on all my data. By around March, you'll even be able to communicate directly with the "video version of me" through this system. This is an example of how, in the long run, we will move from "one-to-many" communication (like our current conversations) to "one-to-one" communication. Imagine Netflix in the future providing customized movies based on each person's personality because everything can be rendered instantly. Then, add the rise of AR and VR technology, and the popularity of robots, and everything you understand about the world will be completely changed. This is what it means that everything is growing exponentially. This is the embodiment of Metcalfe's Law, but we are now entering "Metcalfe's Law squared", which is Reed's Law. This is beyond our current ability to understand, but the development of AI has already made us feel this change. Although this will disrupt the status quo of society, it also provides us with the greatest opportunity ever for mankind.

The next five years are critical, and we must seize this opportunity and not waste it. I will always emphasize that you should avoid short-term speculation and keep yourself in sync with this trend. Cryptocurrency will be an important part of this trend, and it is also the biggest macro investment opportunity in history. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the best performing assets in history, and this trend will continue.

The key is not to lose your tokens. Think about those who bought Bitcoin at $3, their only mission was not to lose their tokens. If you lose your capital because of excessive leverage or crazy speculation on dozens of AI tokens, you will miss this opportunity completely. If you are not careful, you may find yourself in 2030 without enough funds to adapt to this new world. This is what I ask of myself and what I advise everyone. This is the golden age of our generation. After this opportunity, I don’t know what will come next. But I know that humans still love the experience of being human and cherish nature. So we will find a balance between nature, humanity and community, and I am not worried about it. Regarding the question of money and value, AI may become a better investor than us, able to create better business models, and even achieve comprehensive economic abundance. At this time, the meaning of money will change profoundly.

Thread Guy: So, how much money do I need to make by 2030 to feel comfortable?

Raoul Pal: It's not about the specific amount, it's about your lifestyle choices. You need to make sure you have a stable home, live in a place you like, and can maintain the lifestyle you want. You also need a certain amount of liquid assets to be able to cover your daily expenses while giving yourself time to find your role in this new world. I guess you are still young and you have enough time to adapt. I think being a content creator and part of a community is very valuable. We still need real communication between people, and this value cannot be replaced.

The key is to find a place you like to live, such as a sunny area, mountains, seaside, etc. It doesn't have to be in the United States, there are many places with a lower cost of living, such as El Salvador, Nicaragua, Thailand, and even Singapore. If you can protect yourself, you can face future changes with a relaxed attitude instead of being afraid. Because if you don't protect yourself and don't accumulate enough capital for your lifestyle, you will face huge risks.

A Beginner's Guide to Investing from Raoul Pal

Thread Guy: Last question, what advice do you have for young people who are completely confused and just getting started with AI and cryptocurrency?

Raoul Pal: I have said similar things to many of my friends' children. They have just graduated from college and are around 20 years old. They always ask me what they should do. My usual advice is: first buy some Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, and invest 80% of your funds in these core assets. The remaining 20% is used to try the market and learn the rules.

Investing is not an easy thing. I have been doing it for 35 years and it is never easy. So don't risk it all at the beginning. The overall trend in this field is upward, as long as you hold the core assets and stick with it, you will definitely make money. But I understand that it may not be enough to pay the mortgage, and it may not feel fast enough. But I hope that you can gradually learn the rules of investment by trying part of the funds, rather than risking all your capital.

Once you have truly mastered the rules of the game, you may have a chance to hit it in one go and get a hundred times or even higher return. But I don’t recommend going all in at once, because the vast majority of people who try to do so end up failing. The success stories you see on social media represent only a very small number of people, while behind them there are thousands of people who have lost all their capital.

That’s what’s so unique about this market: it’s a casino that’s “rigged” for you, and the overall trend is up. But surprisingly, a lot of people still screw it up.

Thread Guy: My last question is, how do you make $10 million by 2025?

Raoul Pal: You can start with $100 million and then trade AI tokens (laughs).

Thread Guy: Hahaha you are a legend, thank you so much! This discussion is very interesting.

Raoul Pal: I also really enjoyed this conversation and look forward to meeting you next time!