Analysis: Institutions are somewhat overly optimistic about the crypto market; historical data suggests the bottom has not yet been reached.

PANews reported on February 10th that Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, stated on the X platform that while the crypto market has stabilized somewhat, with a significant decrease in implied volatility (IV) across major timeframes, the actual volatility (RV) remains high over the past week, resulting in a record average decrease of 45% in weekly VRP. Specifically, the drop from +20% last week to -25% currently is quite rare. This indicates that the market is rapidly lowering its volatility expectations, perhaps too quickly, given the highly concentrated nature of Bitcoin's volatility. Institutions are overly optimistic about the market, and this lack of caution could leave them vulnerable to a second round of declines. The irrationality in the options market has clearly increased, and institutions are also bewildered by recent market movements. Historically, such occurrences often indicate that the bottom has not yet been reached.

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Author: PA一线

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