Author: Huobi Growth Academy

summary

In the early hours of April 8, 2026, less than an hour and a half before Trump's "deadline," the US and Iran dramatically reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, putting a pause on the nearly forty-day conflict in the Middle East. Global financial markets reacted violently: WTI crude oil plummeted over 15% to $91 per barrel, erasing over 40% of its gains since the conflict began; Nasdaq futures surged 2.5%, instantly igniting market risk appetite; spot gold bucked the trend, soaring to $4,811 per ounce, a gain of over 3%; Bitcoin broke through $72,000, a 24-hour gain of over 5.5%, and Ethereum broke through $2,200, a gain of over 5.9%. This differentiated reaction across asset classes reveals a key trend: during geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin is transitioning from a "purely risky asset" to an asset class that "possesses both the attributes of a risky asset and digital gold." The ceasefire is merely a "breathing room," not permanent peace. Iran's ten-point plan directly targets US troop withdrawal, the lifting of sanctions, and even war reparations; the core contradictions between the two sides have not been resolved. For the crypto market, the short-term rebound in risk appetite, coupled with regulatory progress such as the Clarity Act, has created a rare window of opportunity for a rebound. However, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of negotiations two weeks from now, the ripple effect of falling oil prices on inflation expectations, and changes in the macro liquidity environment remain key variables hanging over the market.

I. Ceasefire Game: A Dramatic Turn Before the Deadline

In the early hours of April 8, 2026, global financial markets held their breath. With less than an hour and a half remaining until Trump's "deadline" for Iran—8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 7—a message from Trump's own social media ignited the markets: "I agree to a two-week suspension of bombing and attacks on Iran."

The ceasefire was reached after intensive diplomatic negotiations. The day before, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz called both Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, requesting a two-week extension of the "deadline" and asking Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks as a goodwill gesture. Trump's condition was that Iran would "fully, immediately, and safely" open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ceasefire. Iran accepted the ceasefire proposal but explicitly expressed "complete distrust" of the US. According to the agreement, the ceasefire officially took effect at 3:30 AM Iranian time on April 8 (8:00 AM Beijing time), and Israel also agreed to suspend its bombing operations during the negotiations. The ceasefire is for two weeks, and negotiations will begin on April 10 in Islamabad, Pakistan. It can be extended with the consent of both sides . Currently, the US military has suspended airstrikes within Iranian territory, and the Iranian armed forces have also suspended defensive operations . However, it is worth noting that the ceasefire is essentially a "two-way suspension," not a permanent peace agreement.

Iran simultaneously released a ten-point plan submitted to the United States through Pakistan, with core demands including: the withdrawal of US combat troops from all bases in the region, the lifting of all sanctions against Iran, acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment activities, payment of war reparations to Iran, and ultimately, ratification of all terms through a binding UN Security Council resolution. Iran stated that "Pakistan has informed Iran that the US accepts the above principles as the basis for negotiations," but the US has never responded directly. The significant gap between the two sides' core demands makes the outlook two weeks later highly uncertain. Negotiations are a continuation of the battle, not its end.

II. Market Overview: Extreme Differentiation Among Four Asset Classes

Following the announcement of the ceasefire, global asset classes exhibited an unusually sharp divergence, reflecting the complexity of the market's pricing logic for "peace expectations."

Crypto Market: Risk appetite rebounded across the board, with Bitcoin leading the gains. Bitcoin briefly broke through $72,000, reaching $72,760 at one point, a 24-hour increase of over 5%; Ethereum broke through $2,200, reaching $2,273 at one point, a 24-hour increase of over 7%; other major cryptocurrencies such as SOL also saw varying degrees of increase. In the past 24 hours, $595 million in positions were liquidated across the entire network, of which $429 million (72%) were short positions, primarily short positions, with $244 million of those liquidated being Bitcoin short positions. The core drivers of Bitcoin's strong rebound came from two aspects: first, the ceasefire news directly triggered a concentrated liquidation of previously accumulated short positions; second, the US-listed Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $471.3 million on Monday, continuing the inflow trend of last week, with institutional funds returning to provide fundamental support for the rebound.

Crude Oil: A Full Reversal of War Premiums. As the absolute epicenter of this conflict, the crude oil market experienced the most dramatic volatility. During the conflict, the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked pushed WTI crude oil prices from around $65 to nearly $118 per barrel, an increase of almost 70%. Upon the announcement of the ceasefire, WTI crude oil futures plummeted by over 15% in a single day, falling as low as $91.3 per barrel, a drop that widened to 19%. With approximately one-fifth of global crude oil supply relying on the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices face further downward pressure should the ceasefire agreement be maintained.

Gold: An Unexpected Resurgence of Safe-Haven Properties. Gold's performance is the most noteworthy signal in this event. According to the traditional pattern of "buying the rumor, selling the news," a de-escalation of geopolitical conflict should weaken the safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a price decline. However, spot gold bucked the trend after the ceasefire announcement, surging to $4811/ounce, a gain of over 3%, with the New York gold futures main contract returning above $4840. This unusual phenomenon of "safe-haven assets surging after geopolitical easing" reveals a deeper logic: long-term funds are not betting on a short-term ceasefire, but rather on a long-term distrust of the dollar's credibility and US global leadership. The rise in gold is essentially a deep skepticism about the credibility of fiat currency and long-term geopolitical stability. During the US-Iran conflict, the dollar index appreciated by more than 2%; after the ceasefire announcement, the dollar index fell by nearly 0.7% intraday, retreating to 98.9, further reinforcing this judgment.

US stocks rebounded, but underlying concerns persisted. Nasdaq futures extended gains to 2.5%, S&P 500 futures rose over 2%, and Dow futures climbed 1.8%. Asian markets followed suit, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 4.7% and the MSCI Asia Pacific index gaining 2.1%. However, the three major US stock indices actually performed modestly during Tuesday's regular trading session: the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, the Nasdaq rose 0.1%, and the Dow fell 0.18%, reflecting investors' cautious attitude towards economic fundamentals.

The differentiated pricing of major asset classes indicates that the logic triggered by ceasefire news varies across different asset classes: crude oil directly retraces the war premium, US stocks restore risk appetite, gold is a pre-pricing of long-term uncertainty, while the crypto market simultaneously absorbs the sentiment restoration of risk assets and the safe-haven narrative of digital assets.

III. The New Geopolitical Logic of Crypto Assets: A Dual Role of Risk and Safe Haven

In this round of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin's performance pattern provides an important analytical framework: it is no longer simply equated with "risk assets" or "safe-haven assets," but rather exhibits a unique "dual attribute."

During the escalation phase of the conflict (late February to early April), Bitcoin's performance clearly diverged from traditional risk assets. While geopolitical tensions led to soaring oil prices, rising inflation expectations, and a setback in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, putting significant pressure on traditional tech stocks, Bitcoin did not experience a simultaneous sharp decline. This was because Bitcoin had already undergone a substantial correction in the early stages of the conflict, limiting potential passive selling pressure in the market. Simultaneously, continuous net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs provided liquidity support to the market.

During the rebound following the ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin's performance reflected two key factors: firstly, its synchronized rebound with US and Asia-Pacific stock markets demonstrated its risk-sensitive nature as a globally liquid asset; secondly, the magnitude and duration of its rebound surpassed that of traditional risk assets, reflecting the market's pricing in its "digital gold" narrative. Market analysts have pointed out that Bitcoin often outperforms traditional safe-haven assets after major global crises. Mercado Bitcoin research shows that in the 60-day market performance following events including the early stages of the pandemic and the escalation of US trade tariffs, Bitcoin's returns significantly outperformed gold and the S&P 500 index in most of these periods.

Bitcoin's "dual nature" is its core characteristic that distinguishes it from other assets. It is a risk asset, highly sensitive to global liquidity and macroeconomic policies; it is also a scarce asset, commanding a safe-haven premium when sovereign credit is questioned. These two attributes are not mutually exclusive, but rather alternately dominate under different macroeconomic conditions. During periods of escalating geopolitical conflict, its safe-haven narrative prevails; during periods of liquidity contraction, its risk attributes become more prominent.

However, the establishment of this framework depends on one prerequisite: the continued increase in institutional participation. On April 7th, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $471.3 million, indicating that institutional funds are strategically positioning themselves during market volatility. Institutional funds have significantly increased their pricing power over Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin's reaction to geopolitical events to shift from "retail-driven sentiment" to "institution-driven macro-pricing." This shift means that the correlation between Bitcoin and macroeconomic variables (interest rates, the US dollar index, global liquidity) may further strengthen in the future, while the impact of purely geopolitical news on prices may gradually weaken.

IV. Future Outlook: A Two-Week Window and Three Major Macroeconomic Variables

The ceasefire agreement is only for two weeks, meaning current market pricing is based on an extremely fragile premise—that the Islamabad negotiations on April 10th will make progress and that the ceasefire will be extended two weeks later. If the negotiations stall, the geopolitical risk premium will quickly return to the market. The following are three key variables that need to be closely monitored going forward:

Variable 1: The trajectory of the Islamabad negotiations (key timeframe: April 10-April 24). The Iranian negotiating team is expected to insist on the core demands of the ten-point plan, including US troop withdrawal and the lifting of sanctions, while the Trump administration's bottom line is "Iran's complete denuclearization and dismantling of nuclear facilities." The gap between the two sides' core demands is significant, and whether a substantial agreement can be reached within two weeks remains highly uncertain. Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, maintained its 2026 Brent crude oil average price forecast of $85, far exceeding the initial forecast of $61, reflecting that the market's pricing of long-term geopolitical risks remains high. Many analysts point out that the two-week window is insufficient to reach a structural agreement resolving deep-seated Middle East conflicts; the sharp drop in oil and other energy assets is more a result of profit-taking and technical selling than a complete elimination of fundamental supply risks.

Variable Two: Inflation Expectations and the Fed's Policy Path. Over the past month, the US-Iran conflict caused oil prices to surge by more than 40%, significantly raising global inflation expectations. The market initially priced in a pause in Fed rate cuts or even a rate hike. With the subsequent drop in oil prices, inflationary pressures have eased, and market expectations for the Fed's rate-cutting path have been recalibrated. If oil prices remain below $100 during the ceasefire, it will provide the Fed with greater policy flexibility, providing a macroeconomic boost to global risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, if negotiations break down in two weeks and oil prices surge again, inflation expectations will quickly return to normal, at which point the Fed's rate-cutting path will once again face uncertainty.

Variable Three: The legislative progress of the Clarity Act. BTC Markets analyst Rachel Lucas points out: "The bullish scenario depends on two catalysts: first, a confirmed and sustained US-Iran ceasefire, causing oil prices to fall below $100; second, the US Clarity Act, expected to pass in late April. Institutional market participants are closely watching this bill, viewing it as a regulatory 'unblocking'." If the Clarity Act passes in late April, it will provide clearer legal guidance for the regulatory framework of stablecoins and digital assets, further lowering the entry barrier for institutions and becoming an important medium-term catalyst for the crypto market.

Furthermore, it's crucial to monitor the on-chain derivatives market. In the US-Iran ceasefire prediction market, the probability of the April 15th contract jumped from 67% to 90% within minutes of the announcement, subsequently reaching 99.6% "YES," demonstrating extremely high market confidence in a short-term ceasefire. However, research from institutions like Chainalysis indicates that when prediction market probabilities are overly concentrated on a single outcome, it often signifies insufficient pricing of tail risks—the moment when everyone believes the ceasefire will continue is precisely when expectation reversals are most likely to occur.

V. Risk Warnings and Strategy Recommendations

The current market rebound is built on an extremely fragile premise—a two-week ceasefire. Once this foundation is shaken, all currently priced assets will face a drastic revaluation.

The most immediate risk is the return of geopolitical risks. If the Islamabad negotiations on April 10 fail to make substantial progress, or if the ceasefire agreement fails to be extended two weeks later, the market will quickly repric the geopolitical risk premium. At that time, oil prices may surge again, global inflation expectations may rise, the Fed's interest rate cut path will face uncertainty again, and risk assets (including Bitcoin) will face a new round of pressure.

Regulatory uncertainty also warrants attention. If the CLARITY bill passes smoothly in late April, it will be a medium-term positive for the crypto market; however, if it encounters obstacles during the review process, the market may re-price regulatory risks.

The third variable is the risk of tightening macro liquidity. If oil prices continue to fall due to the ceasefire, inflationary pressures will ease, giving the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates, which will benefit risk assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, if oil prices surge again due to the collapse of the ceasefire, expectations for Fed rate cuts will be suppressed, creating a macroeconomic headwind for Bitcoin.

From a strategic perspective, the current rebound in the crypto market offers a rare window for reducing or adjusting positions. Key data releases on April 14-15 (such as US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data) and the commencement of negotiations on April 10 will provide further macroeconomic information. Investors are advised to maintain flexible positions, closely monitor the progress of the Islamabad negotiations, oil price fluctuations, and statements from Federal Reserve officials, remaining rational when the market over-prices "peace" and sober when there is excessive panic about "war." In the dual game of macroeconomics and geopolitics, maintaining strategic flexibility and sensitivity to key variables is more important than betting on a single direction.