Author: Ishika Kumari , AMB Crypto

Compiled by: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: Amidst heightened macroeconomic uncertainty and persistently low sentiment in the crypto market, an intriguing divergence is emerging: investor sentiment remains in the "extreme fear" range, yet some asset prices are beginning to rise slowly.

Recently, the decentralized derivatives trading platform Hyperliquid (HYPE) has become a focal point of community discussion. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes publicly gave a target price of $150 (approximately 5 times the current price), attracting market attention. As of March 12, 2026, HYPE's price was around $36, with a 24-hour increase of about 5% and a cumulative increase of over 11% in the past 7 days.

Regarding the logic behind its price increase, the community has offered several explanations: for example, the platform uses approximately 97% of its revenue to buy back and burn tokens, forming a value capture mechanism directly linked to trading activity; the HIP-3 mechanism allows users to create more types of perpetual markets on-chain, expanding potential trading demand; at the same time, the lower ADV/OI ratio is also seen by some market participants as a signal that trading volume is more "real".

This article synthesizes the views of Arthur Hayes and many other community participants, attempting to understand the structural reasons behind HYPE's recent strength in a market environment where sentiment remains cautious.

The following is the original text:

The crypto market is currently in a rather delicate state: prices are slowly rising, but investor sentiment remains extremely low.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the "extreme fear" range. However, for seasoned market participants like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, this divergence between price and sentiment sends a different signal.

Arthur Hayes: HYPE target price $150

Hayes believes that instead of focusing solely on short-term price fluctuations or rashly shorting the market, it is better to turn attention to decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

He reviewed past market cycles, noting that during the sideways market of 2023, despite the overall struggles of traders, trading platforms like GMX still achieved sustained growth through transaction fees.

In his view, as more and more transactions move to the blockchain, Hyperliquid (HYPE) may also follow a similar development path.

In contrast, institutions like Tether or Circle typically retain profits within the company; Hyperliquid employs a different mechanism—approximately 97% of its revenue is used to buy back and burn HYPE tokens, thereby reducing market circulation and providing price support in the long term.

Based on this business model, Arthur Hayes believes that HYPE's price has the potential to rise to $150.

"My target price for HYPE in August 2026 is $150. At the time I wrote this, it was around $30, which means about 5x upside potential."

What conditions are needed for Hyperliquid to unleash its full potential?

However, for this target price to be truly realistic, Hyperliquid still needs to achieve stronger growth. Currently, the platform's annualized revenue is approximately $843 million, but to support such a valuation, revenue would need to increase to approximately $1.4 billion.

One of the key growth drivers may come from HIP-3 .

HIP-3 allows users to create permissionless perpetual contract markets on-chain and directly peg the underlying assets to traditional assets, such as the Nasdaq 100 index or precious metals. To launch such a market, users need to stake 500,000 HYPE tokens.

Although this mechanism is relatively new, HIP-3 has already contributed approximately 10% of Hyperliquid's revenue. This business segment could see significant expansion if more traders begin hedging traditional asset risks on-chain in the future.

The community is generally bullish on HYPE.

Echoing Hayes's view, one X user also stated, "Even if the world is at war, holding HYPE might be the best decision."

Tweet content: Why holding HYPE might be the best decision even if the world is at war. Despite the current barrage of bad news surrounding the entire crypto space, HYPE remains one of the best assets.
The Hyperliquid team timed its launch of the HIP-3 marketplace perfectly. At this stage, the crypto community as a whole has largely lost interest, with panic levels at record highs, even lower than during the FTX crash. On Hyperliquid, if sorted by daily trading volume, only 10 of the top 30 trading pairs are crypto-related, the rest being equity market assets.
HIP-3 was a stunning breakthrough and will remain important for years to come; so will Hyperliquid—it offers the highest liquidity, no KYC required, and 24/7 trading.
Jeff was the first to establish a business model where the token itself has real meaning within the system. While 99% of projects disappear after launch, HYPE continues to thrive.

In addition, another user stated, "Whenever a global supply shortage causes a surge in the price of a commodity, Hyperliquid captures the speculative demand for currency. Transaction fees and clearing profits flow to HYPE, causing it to outperform the market. We saw this in gold a few weeks ago, and now we're seeing the same thing in CL (crude oil)."

Another important indicator supporting the bullish view is the ADV/OI ratio (Average Daily Volume / Open Interest, which is the ratio of average daily trading volume to open interest).

Arthur Hayes cited this metric, stating, "Among the top five perpetual contract DEXs, Hyperliquid has the most genuine trading volume because it has the lowest ADV/OI ratio."

However, Hayes also believes that Hyperliquid's visible share of total average daily trading volume (ADV) will continue to increase over time and as market conditions change.

&HYPE: Price and On-Chain Metrics

Meanwhile, at the time of writing, HYPE is trading at approximately $34.98, up 13.37% in the past 24 hours. However, despite the strong price performance, on-chain data indicates that market sentiment remains relatively cautious.

Data from Santiment shows a clear divergence between developer progress and market sentiment between mid-January and mid-February: project development continued, but market sentiment for the project did not improve accordingly.

 Source: Santiment

However, investor sentiment remains negative, primarily due to traders' focus on short-term price fluctuations. Only recently has market sentiment begun to improve, suggesting the market may finally be recognizing the platform's increasing usability and revenue model.

It's worth noting that this isn't the first time Hayes has expressed strong confidence in HYPE. Back on February 21st, the BitMEX co-founder stated on X that he was continuously increasing his holdings of HYPE and had set a target price of $150.

In his previous assessment, this target price was likely to be achieved in July 2026; however, in his latest forecast, the timeframe has been pushed back to around August 2026. This is contingent on the agreement generating approximately $1.4 billion in annualized revenue.

Final Summary

Metrics like Hyperliquid's low ADV/OI ratio suggest that its trading activity comes more from real users than from artificially generated fake trading volume.

At the same time, market sentiment remains cautious, indicating that investors are still waiting for clearer signals to confirm that the platform can achieve sustained growth.

Arthur Hayes bought 26,000 HYPE tokens three hours ago, worth $1.1 million.

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