PANews reported on May 7th that, according to The Washington Post, four sources familiar with the matter stated that a classified CIA analysis this week concluded that Iran could sustain itself under a US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship. The analysis also suggests that despite weeks of intense US and Israeli bombing, Iran retains a considerable ballistic missile capability. One US official stated that Iran currently retains approximately 75% of its pre-war mobile launcher inventory and about 70% of its missile reserves. The official claimed there is evidence that the Iranian regime has been able to restore and reactivate almost all underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly completed at the outbreak of the war. Another US official stated that he believes Iran's ability to withstand prolonged economic hardship is even stronger than the CIA's assessment. "Iran's leadership has become more radical and determined, increasingly convinced that they can exhaust the political will of the United States while suppressing any resistance through domestic repression. It's not uncommon for similar regimes to survive for years under prolonged embargoes and purely air-based warfare," a source said. Iran is storing some of its oil on tankers that would otherwise be idle due to the blockade, while reducing oil field production to ensure wells remain operational. U.S. officials say the CIA may have underestimated Iran's economic resilience if it can smuggle oil overland.
US intelligence suggests that Iran could withstand a blockade by Trump for at least three to four months.
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Author: PA一线
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