PANews reported on May 21 that, according to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin has recovered to its true market average of $78,300 but failed to hold above it. Historical cycles suggest that it needs to consolidate around this level for weeks to months before a credible bullish transition is confirmed. The current 30-day cost base of $78,200 has turned from support into resistance, while the cost base of the group accumulated from February to April at $71,400 is the most immediate support for the current pullback.

On the demand side, the 30-day moving average realized profit/loss ratio surged from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating that demand is insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking and needs to remain above 2 to signal a genuine recovery in buying. The internal structure of the spot market has weakened recently, with the cumulative spot trading volume difference remaining negative and Coinbase activity continuing to lag, indicating weak institutional participation in the spot market in the US, despite occasional offshore speculative demand. The recent slowdown in the accumulation of US spot ETFs suggests that futures activity is increasingly dominating positions.

In the options market, implied volatility has rebounded from its lows, mainly concentrated in the front end, while long-term expectations remain stable. Realized volatility has continued to decline, widening the volatility risk premium. Option skewness indicates a renewed demand for downside protection, and the negative gamma zone around $75,000 makes the spot market vulnerable to amplified hedging flows and more volatile price movements.