On July 14, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the 120,000 USD mark, setting a new record high. In this round of rise, active funds on the market and incremental funds off the market formed a double resonance, the "Trump bottom" range was broken, and the market bullish sentiment significantly heated up.
Bitcoin breaks through the key range, and the resonance of funds and policies drives the market to continue to rise
This week, Bitcoin has risen by 9.08%, not only setting a new record high, breaking through the $120,000 mark, but also breaking through the "Trump bottom" formed since November last year - the oscillation consolidation range of $90,000 to $110,000. On-chain data shows that more than 30% of Bitcoin has been transferred within this range, which has long been regarded as a pricing anchor for institutional position building and policy expectations.
This breakthrough is not only a technical breakthrough, but also establishes the market consensus that Bitcoin is gradually becoming a strategic asset of the United States at the macro level. Especially in the context of former President Trump's repeated public statements in support of Bitcoin and his advocacy of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, this price range has evolved into a symbol of policy signals. Once this area is effectively crossed, it means that the market structure has entered a new upward stage.
Institutional allocation continues to strengthen, and ETFs evolve in resonance with mainstream assets
The core driving force of this round of market comes from the deep changes in the capital structure. On the market, the frequency of block transactions on the main exchanges has increased significantly, the proportion of HODLers has continued to rise, the chip lock-up effect has increased, and the market selling pressure has significantly decreased. At the same time, ETF funds continue to flow in, providing a solid off-market support for the market. According to public data, as of now, the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin-related ETFs has reached US$1.44 billion this month, and the overall management scale has exceeded US$51 billion, becoming an important driving force for the stable price increase.
The maturity of ETF channels has also led to the entry of traditional institutional funds. Long-term funds such as pension funds and mutual funds are allocating Bitcoin through compliant channels, further improving the structural stability of the market, reducing volatility, and broadening the mainstream acceptance of assets.
The technical structure is stable, the trend continuity is strong, and the short-term fluctuations are controllable
Since breaking through the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin has maintained a strong overall trend. After the $110,000 mark was broken through with large volume, the $120,000 mark was also conquered due to the continued increase in trading volume, showing the persistence of the bullish dominance. At present, although the relative strength index (RSI) is at a relatively high level, there is no obvious overbought signal. At the same time, the moving average system is clearly arranged, and the overall technical structure still supports the upward trend.
In the short term, the market may still experience a correction, and we need to pay special attention to the profit-taking of some funds, as well as the uncertainties brought about by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve policy expectations and the US election. In this context, investors are advised to keep their positions flexible, reasonably control risks, and continue to pay attention to the medium-term trend, and continue or adjust the rhythm.
Future Outlook: Supervision is accelerating, and the market continues to have a more solid foundation
Looking ahead, as the pace of policy advancement accelerates, the foundation for the market to continue to be strong is becoming more solid. The ongoing "US Cryptocurrency Week" has become an important window for policy implementation. Three key bills, including stablecoin regulation, division of regulatory functions, and restrictions on central bank digital currencies (CBDC), have entered the House of Representatives review stage and are expected to be voted on this week. Previously, the "GENIUS Act" has been passed by the Senate with a high vote, clarifying the 1:1 reserve and federal audit requirements for stablecoins, providing important support for institutional capital inflows and payment scenario expansion.
The substantial progress in policy promotion has provided clear institutional support for Bitcoin to break through $120,000, and has further boosted the market's confidence in the path of compliance and mainstreaming. The current market is not only a technological breakthrough, but also a concentrated reflection of the global capital's repricing of the long-term value of crypto assets.
In the short term, we need to pay attention to the pace of policy implementation and market adjustments and fluctuations, but in the medium and long term, the mainstreaming of crypto assets has entered the realization stage from trend judgment, and the next round of market breakthrough may come earlier and faster than market expectations.
