In the next 3-5 years, there is an opportunity to transform "decentralization" from a narrative into a verifiable, quantifiable breakthrough that can directly translate into economic security and resilience. This will most likely focus on the following areas with the highest leverage (ranked from highest to lowest potential):
1. A fully decentralized sorter based on ZK
Most high-performance L1 blockchains trade performance for centralized orderers. A chain that truly transforms the ZK proof network into one where "anyone running a Raspberry Pi can participate in block production and proof" would directly boost the Nakamoto Coefficient to thousands or even tens of thousands. Currently, no chain (including Ethereum) can simultaneously achieve a fully decentralized orderer, 100% ZK verification, and finality in less than one second at the mainnet level, although Ethereum is working towards this goal.
2. Historically based client diversity + economically provable long-term node decentralization
Currently, when people talk about decentralization, they're mostly looking at the number of validator nodes. However, what truly determines whether an ordinary user can run a full node at home is the synchronization cost and the cost of historical data. If an L1 layer could make "running a full node only requires a few hundred GB or even less, and the synchronization time is less than 1 hour," and if this can be solved (for example, by truly implementing a combination of Verkle Tree + ZK proof-of-history + Portal network), then there's a chance to make hundreds of thousands or even millions of independent nodes worldwide a reality. This would significantly reduce the proportion of Ethereum nodes running on AWS, and substantially increase their absolute number. This represents true decentralized geographical distribution and censorship resistance.
3. Dual Quorum / Cosmos-style pluggable security (shared security, but truly verifiable cross-chain finality)
There are already many application chains, and everyone is leveraging Ethereum's security. If a native L1 blockchain emerges in the future, allowing hundreds of heterogeneous chains to simultaneously share its validator set, while mathematically proving that "as long as 2/3 of the L1 chain doesn't act maliciously, no chain will be rolled back or audited," this could amplify the security budget of the L1 chain by 10 to 100 times. If "verifiable shared security" works, it will directly end the impossible triangle problem of "sacrificing performance for security, and sacrificing decentralization for performance."
Currently, there is no evidence that 100% mathematically provable shared security can be achieved while maintaining high performance in heterogeneous execution environments (different VMs + different DA layers).
4. Genuine economic incentives for decentralization (rather than the rich getting richer).
Designing economic models that allow smaller nodes to genuinely profit, rather than concentrating validator power in the hands of a few (such as DHT routing proofs, storage proofs, light client rewards, and even bandwidth proofs), would transform decentralization from a mere "metric" into genuine community participation. Currently, this is extremely difficult to implement in practice; even Bitcoin and Ethereum haven't solved this problem yet.
5. In summary, the most likely breakthrough in decentralization is to bring ZK/STARK proof capabilities down to a level truly accessible to individuals, and to address the issues of decentralized synchronization sorters and verifiability of historical data. Whoever first successfully implements the idea of "contributing blocks and proofs to a chain with 10,000+ TPS and fees <0.001 USD using a Raspberry Pi at home" will gain the deepest competitive advantage in the next round of L1 blockchain development.
Other approaches (such as better BFT algorithms and faster finality) are valuable, but they are no longer orders of magnitude different. The real 10x to 100x difference can only appear in the dimension of "decentralized verifiability".
