PANews reported on November 16 that Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley shared his observations on the four-year cycle phenomenon on Twitter. The general consensus is that people believe in the four-year cycle and think that the price of Bitcoin will fall in 2026.

First-order effect: People will sell in 2025 to avoid a year of market decline.

Second-order effect: The sell-off in 2025 made 2025 a year of decline, thus breaking the four-year cycle.

Third-order effect: 2026 is still undefined, and the four-year cycle has been broken.

Hunter Horsley previously stated that the four-year cycle model is based on the old era of cryptocurrencies. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF and the appointment of new management, a completely new market structure has emerged: new participants, new dynamics, and new reasons for people to buy and sell. It is highly likely that we have already experienced a bear market of nearly six months, and that this bear market is nearing its end.