Written by: Changan and Amelia, Biteye Content Team

Memes are receding, and prediction markets are taking over. This isn't speculation; it's a massive migration of capital underway.

When Polymarket obtained all licenses in the United States and received a $2 billion investment from its NYSE parent company, you should understand: the era of memes that speculated on cats and dogs is over, and the era of speculating on "truth" has officially begun.

This article will take you:

• Understanding why the market suddenly exploded;
• A roundup of promising hidden gems on the BNB blockchain;
• We'll teach you step-by-step how to plan ahead and reap early benefits.

Why has market prediction suddenly become so popular?

The moment when market sentiment truly shifts is often not a sharp drop, but rather a period of numbness.

You'll find that: the dog is still posting, but you're too lazy to even open it; the narrative is still going strong, but you only have one thought in your mind: it will all come down to nothing in the end anyway.

Meme didn't die suddenly.

It died from a structural contradiction: tokens are permanent, but attention is fleeting.

When Pump.fun lowered the barrier to entry for its token to near zero, the supply began to expand exponentially; however, retail investors' time, emotions, and funds remained linear. The result was only one: the hype grew shorter and the gradual decline longer.

Just then, a new, seemingly "less exciting" but even more brutal approach began to quietly devour the funds lost by Meme.

It's called: Prediction Market.

1.1 The more uncertain the world becomes, the more people need the truth.

In this era of information overload and fragmentation, the media can often only provide timely information, but cannot guarantee accuracy.

For example, someone used AI to forge a CZ autobiography, complete with a cover and outline, and uploaded it to Apple Books and other publishing platforms, even fooling the media. At the time, the book's meme was even valued at three million US dollars.

Under the Meme mechanism, speculators can get the news immediately by scanning the chain, but this often makes them easy targets for rumors. Because in the logic of "speed is everything", the cost of verifying the authenticity is too high. By the time you finish checking the information and verifying the authenticity, the price of the coin may have already gone to zero.

This is precisely the significance of the prediction market: it introduces the Skin in the Game mechanism, forcing participants to reveal their true expectations through real-money games.

Its logic is simple: talk is cheap, show me the money.

Prediction markets are the process of transforming "cognition" into "assets." In an initial state where Yes and No each account for 50%, participants vote with real money on information. The more buyers there are, the higher the price, and the price fluctuations quantify the true probability of an event occurring in real time.

1.2 From "Cryptocurrency Speculation" to "Event Speculation": Speculation Has Escalated

The fundamental reason for Meme's decline is that assets were issued too quickly, and attention fled even faster. When attention is diverted, what remains are the permanently existing tokens, and a gradual decline becomes the norm.

Prediction markets solve these problems:

• There is a clear settlement date: speculative funds are focused on the window of opportunity when the event occurs. Once the event ends, the funds are settled, and there are always winners. This solves the problem of the meme's slow and steady decline.
• Speculator-friendly: By clearly defining the outcome of a match, it ensures that there are always users who can obtain settlement benefits, thus improving the survival environment for speculators from the underlying mechanism.
• Funds are more concentrated: no longer troubled by endless distribution channels and identical coins, but can focus attention on a limited number of important events.

This is not just a change in gameplay, but an upgrade in the dimension of speculation. You don't need to compete on who runs the fastest, you only need to compete on who can see the most accurately.

1.3 Compliance Breakthrough, Institutional Entry

The market for predictions is booming not only because of its sound mechanism, but also because it has been recognized by regulators.

On September 3rd of this year, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan successfully ended a years-long tug-of-war with regulators. Polymarket broke Kalshi's long-standing monopoly in the compliant market, proving that prediction markets can break out of the "legal gray area" and transform into a transparent and compliant "information derivatives market."

A little over a month later, on October 7th, ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, injected $2 billion, officially bringing prediction markets into the view of Wall Street. This marked the formal entry of prediction markets as a new asset class into the core of global finance.

The breakthrough in compliance has completely eliminated legal concerns about institutional funding. Prediction markets are rapidly shedding their "niche crypto toy" label and evolving into a financial infrastructure on par with the S&P 500 and gold prices, quantifying global risk and public opinion trends.

As the chart shows, weekly trading volume in the prediction market has recently experienced an unprecedented exponential surge, peaking at over $4 billion.

 Data source: Dune

II. Predicting the market leaders and rising stars

2.1 Kalshi: A lone warrior who confronts regulators head-on

Before discussing prediction markets, we must first pay tribute to Kalshi. If Polymarket gained its freedom through a shell company, then Kalshi broke through the regulatory hurdle by directly confronting the issue head-on.

Prior to 2024, the US prediction market largely operated in a gray area, with the biggest uncertainty stemming from regulatory attitudes. Kalshi obtained a Designated Contract Marketplace (DCM) license from the CFTC as early as 2020, becoming the first regulated platform focusing on event-driven contracts. Subsequently, it engaged in a protracted battle with the CFTC over the approval of political contracts—between 2023 and 2024, the CFTC temporarily banned related contracts, but Kalshi directly took legal action and won, ultimately forcing the CFTC to drop its appeal in 2025.

This victory is seen by many as a key turning point in predicting the legalization of the market: it is not gambling, but a protected market for financial derivatives.

While compliance may seem costly, it brings institutional trust and a regulatory moat. Kalshi is the earliest and most mature CFTC-regulated platform, enabling US institutions and retail investors to legally and directly trade event contracts in US dollars. Although competitors like Polymarket are gradually returning to the US market by the end of 2025, Kalshi's first-mover advantage and strict compliance model still make many people feel that this cost is worthwhile.

However, compliance comes at the cost of self-isolation. Strict KYC, limiting operations to US users, and confining them to a "local area network" within the US market weaken their connection to a much larger global user base.

2.2 Polymarket: The First King, But Not the End Game

If Kalshi won in court, then Polymarket undoubtedly won in the market; the capital market provided the answer with real money.

This year, its valuation has achieved a three-level leap, rapidly soaring from the $1 billion unicorn threshold at the beginning of the year to $8 billion (after receiving a $2 billion investment from ICE, the parent company of the NYSE), and there are even recent reports that it is seeking a new round of valuation of $15 billion.

During the US presidential election, it witnessed massive financial speculation. The total trading volume for the prediction pool alone, specifically for the "2024 US Presidential Election," exceeded $3.2 billion.

A closer look reveals that Polymarket's success stems from a double victory in both product development and compliance:

From a product perspective: it deliberately downplays its "gambling" attributes, emphasizing instead its informational attributes. During the election, even CNN and Bloomberg cited its odds. It successfully established a sense of authority, making users feel that betting wasn't gambling, but rather pricing information.

Moreover, compared to earlier prediction markets like Augur, Polymarket has streamlined the user experience to the extreme. There are no obscure on-chain interactions; settlement is directly done in the USDC stablecoin. This allows Web2 users to seamlessly enter the prediction market.

From a compliance perspective: Polymarket proactively reached a settlement with the regulatory agency (CFTC). This "fine" is actually a "ticket" to enter the mainstream world; it cleared compliance obstacles and paved the way for its upcoming entry into the US market.

However, this approach of compliance plus focusing on top players has its limits.

Polymarket's success is built on a highly controlled, operationally-intensive model. While this model is secure, it is extremely inefficient. It's like a meticulously crafted workshop, heavily reliant on the aesthetics of the official team and institutional funding to keep running. This makes it perfect for super-products like the US presidential election, but when faced with more fragmented, higher-frequency mass demands, this centralized framework proves too slow and cumbersome.

It successfully validated the prediction market from 0 to 1, but the core contradictions that prevented the industry from booming from 1 to 100 remain unresolved in its model.

2.3 Seven Unresolved Questions in Market Forecasting

If we strip away Polymarket's label as a market leader in prediction and take a closer look at the product, we'll find that Polymarket still has many fatal flaws.

1. Centralized Market Creation and Operation: Existing platforms like Polymarket face a natural "cognitive barrier" for users in non-English speaking regions due to geographical and cultural differences. Furthermore, market creation currently relies heavily on screening by official teams, leading to an extreme concentration of resources in highly commercialized sectors.

This centralized approach directly led to the neglect of niche markets, with many interesting needs in vertical sectors being overlooked due to a lack of operation. For example, Chinese-speaking users are unfamiliar with high-volatility sectors like politics and culture on Polymarket, and are unwilling to spend too much time on these sectors. Meanwhile, some niche sectors that Chinese-speaking users are familiar with and interested in lack liquidity.

2. Liquidity Threshold Arising from the Order Book Model: Existing mainstream platforms adopt the order book model, which means that each new market needs a sufficient liquidity barrier. Otherwise, even small transactions will cause drastic price fluctuations, damage the user experience, and form a negative cycle of "insufficient liquidity → user churn → further shrinkage of liquidity".

This order book model results in a poor trading experience for long-tail, niche topics due to a lack of initial liquidity.

3. Discontinuous user experience: In addition to the lack of fluidity, another problem worth criticizing is the poor user experience.

In short-term predictions for highly volatile assets such as BTC/ETH, market probabilities fluctuate dramatically in real time along with candlestick prices. Due to the time lag between front-end display and on-chain transactions, a user placing a buy order ("Yes") when the probability is low may result in the probability jumping to high by the time the transaction is actually executed.

The probability of a transaction is not the same as the probability of clicking. This kind of bad first experience often leads to a very high user churn rate.

4. Low settlement efficiency: After a user finally wins a prize after going through great hardships, they find that the profit has not yet been credited to their account and they need to wait for market settlement.

The "outcome resolution" process in many markets is extremely slow. For example, Polymarket relies on the UMA oracle, and a disputed market may take days or even longer, requiring multiple rounds of voting before a final settlement, resulting in funds being tied up for extended periods. Due to the design of the UMA oracle (Optimistic Oracle), cheating to alter the final market outcome is a potential vulnerability.

5. Insufficient scalability of oracles: Currently, oracles heavily rely on decentralized adjudication mechanisms involving "human" factors (such as voters in UMA), which cannot efficiently handle the thousands of permissionless markets that may emerge in the future.

When the number of market participants explodes, this "arbitration system" will become overwhelmed.

6. Limited returns for LPs: Not only is the experience poor for retail investors, but LPs in the market are also not doing well.

Due to the nature of prediction markets, being a limited partner (LP) in a prediction market offers a limited revenue model and makes risk exposure difficult to manage, which restricts the willingness of professional market makers and DeFi funds to enter the market.

In addition, participants in the prediction market find it difficult to use their positions in other DeFi scenarios (such as staking), which limits the application scenarios.

7. Market manipulation: But the above are not the worst of all. The following problem is a direct challenge to the very foundation of the prediction market.

The original purpose of market prediction was to measure the authenticity of events, but when the profit motive is large enough, the participants' motivation will be transformed from "measuring events" to "driving events", allowing the market to endorse this created "fact".

If market outcomes are ultimately determined by media reports, then the optimal strategy is to bribe the media rather than research the events themselves. In this case, the market ceases to be a "truth-discovering machine" and becomes a financial instrument that provides legitimacy for manipulated facts.

The "Green Dildo" incident at a WNBA game in August this year is a typical example: In the Polymarket market regarding "whether there will be projectiles on the court", the mainstream position tends to be "no", resulting in extremely high odds for "yes".

Participants discovered that by spending just a few dozen dollars on tickets and props and taking a minimal risk of breaking the rules to enter the arena and throw, they could unlock predicted profits worth thousands of dollars.

2.4 Where are the next generation of prediction markets evolving to?

The problems Polymarket faced are precisely the best entry point for newcomers. For newcomers without historical baggage, there's no need to replicate a "cautious giant." The market's pain points have provided clear guidance: users are tired of censorship and are calling for freedom; capital is tired of inefficiency and craves leverage.

1. Moving towards a permissionless creation model: In response to the lack of niche markets caused by official screening, the next generation of prediction markets is committed to lowering the barrier to market creation.

Through algorithm-driven automated liquidity mechanisms, anyone can quickly create predictive events for specific cultural spheres (such as the Chinese niche market), niche technology topics, or vertical industry dynamics, achieving true "pricing of everything".

2. Introducing leverage to enhance capital efficiency and attractiveness: Addressing the long-standing pain points of "high capital occupancy and insufficient return elasticity" in the forecasting market, introducing leverage is a core variable for activating liquidity.

Traditional $0-1 forecast contracts are essentially full-value spot transactions. By introducing leverage, users can use minimal margin to potentially profit from major events (such as 10x leverage to predict Fed rate hikes). This not only attracts high-frequency speculators but also allows institutional investors to hedge macroeconomic risks at a lower cost.

For markets with a 90% win rate but extremely low odds, ordinary users often lack interest in participating. Leverage can amplify the volatility gains in low-odds markets, allowing markets that were originally "highly certain but unprofitable" to regain liquidity.

While leverage is key to improving capital efficiency, its implementation in prediction markets is still in the exploratory stage. The simple "position collateral to obtain assets" model has inherent flaws in prediction markets. Due to the generally poor liquidity of prediction markets and their binary settlement mechanism (where prices can fluctuate wildly from 0 to 1 at the moment of settlement), the system struggles to smoothly clear transactions during periods of volatility.

3. Focus on vertical markets: Instead of pursuing a "large and comprehensive" approach, companies are shifting towards in-depth pricing within specific vertical markets. Examples include Football Fun, which specializes in the sports sector, and Limitless, which focuses on cryptocurrency price prediction.

Vertical platforms, by focusing on specific sectors (such as sports, crypto asset volatility, or macroeconomic data), can attract traders with a high degree of professional consensus. This precise participant profiling prevents funds from being scattered across inefficient markets, instead creating extremely high order book depth in core areas and significantly reducing slippage costs for large transactions.

4. Enhancing User Experience: From "Standalone Applications" to "Traffic Aggregators" While giants (such as Coinbase and Jupiter) possess significant traffic, building their own prediction markets is extremely costly (involving compliance, oracles, odds calculation, etc.). Therefore, the industry is evolving towards an "aggregator model":

Unlike Meme Coin, prediction markets do not have a unified CA. Giants leverage their traffic advantage as a front end, integrating underlying liquidity such as Kalshi to solve the pain point of users "not being able to find order books," which will greatly improve market discovery and trading experience.

III. Overview of Prediction Market Projects within the BNB Chain Ecosystem

Looking at several major public chains: Solana is seeking to transform into ICM due to the decline of Meme; Base is focusing its development on the creator economy; and after the unveiling of Yzi Labs S2, the heavy support of the BNB ecosystem for prediction markets is a clear betting signal.

Furthermore, BNB Chain's prediction markets have taken a completely different development path from other ecosystems: Most recent prediction markets that have launched tokens have opted for ICOs, with Football Fun choosing to ICO on Legion and airdropping tokens to only 1,000 users; Space opted for an ICO with no airdrop. In contrast, BNB Chain's prediction markets have all chosen to give back to the community through airdrops.

Therefore, we need to take a separate look at the prediction market projects within the BNB ecosystem.

3.1 BNB Chain Prediction Market Racecourse

@opinionlabsxyz

Led by Yzi Labs, the company has completed a $5 million seed funding round, with participants including Echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold Trading, and Amber Group.

The platform is experiencing rapid growth and has entered the top three in the prediction market, transforming from a niche tool into a macro financial infrastructure. Users interested in macro trading, DeFi, and event prediction should definitely explore it further.

Recently, Dune released an 88-page industry report, recognizing Opinion as a "leading example in the macro forecasting market." Its cumulative notional trading volume exceeds $8.2 billion (from $180 million on launch day to the present), with multiple single-day volumes exceeding $200 million.

@predictdotfun

Predict.fun is a native DeFi prediction market on the BNB Chain, founded by @dingaling, former Head of Research at Binance and founder of PancakeSwap. He graduated from Easy S2.

Unlike other prediction market projects, Predict.fun allows prediction positions to be used as DeFi funds, supporting yield, lending, and leverage through on-chain protocols, improving capital efficiency and permissionless liquidity.

Predict Fun has currently snapshotted addresses with historically active trading records on platforms such as BNB Chain meme traders, Aster DEX, Polymarket, Limitless, Myriad, and Opinion. Users can check their eligibility and unlock points to receive airdrops through tasks (depositing, inviting tweets, completing specified trading volumes).

It achieved a transaction volume of over $10 million on its first day of launch.

@0xProbable

A native on-chain prediction protocol co-incubated by PancakeSwap and Yzi Labs. It offers zero-fee predictions, supports deposits in any token (automatically converted to USDT), and allows anyone to launch a new market.

Secured by UMA's Oracle, focusing on unique events such as sports and cryptocurrency price movements, users can earn points through the program.

On the 18th of this month, the official announcement was made that LIVE would be available, supporting free predictions. Currently, several real-time event markets are open, such as NBA games (e.g., Grizzlies vs Timberwolves, Bulls vs Cavaliers, etc.).

@42

Graduated from EASY S2, it transforms real-world event outcomes into liquid, tradable token assets by introducing Bonding Curve. This design continuously generates high volatility, high liquidity, and ultimately, fair and transparent settlement. It transcends the scope of prediction markets, resembling more of an "event asset issuance platform."

Founder @Leozayaat repeatedly emphasizes that 42 is not a traditional prediction market variant, but a completely new asset class. Its core mechanism is different from any prediction market or launchpad, and users can buy and sell freely at any time without worrying about liquidity.

It created an event asset issuance platform based on real events, and theoretically, it will never "harvest" investors. This is a very elegant mechanism innovation, and it also has the potential to further drive the upgrading of the entire ecosystem.

The mainnet mechanism has been tested and is now mature. A brand new and more attractive UI is planned for release at the end of January. Currently, the Beta phase is actively promoting events and betting opportunities.

@Bentodotfun

Graduated from EASY S2 and received Base (Batches 001 - Second Prize) support.

Prediction markets are engines of truth, but they face challenges such as difficulty in discovery, lack of personalization, isolation, and limited profit potential.

Bento allows users to recombine global prediction markets with user-generated markets, creating market designs such as challenges and tournaments, thereby providing better discovery mechanisms for markets and traders.

Just as Roblox set an example for the gaming industry—building personalized games like Lego, inviting friends, and establishing microeconomy—Bento is doing the same thing for prediction markets.

They believe that trading and speculation are new types of games, but they also need socially native, user-generated models to achieve rapid growth.

The core team includes co-founders @abhitejxyz and @PratyakshInani. They were previously co-founders of Filament and have been building the platform together for five years.

It is currently in the Early Access testing phase (trading has not yet officially started on the mainnet).

3.2 The infrastructure for prediction markets also needs to be developed.

As mentioned earlier, the prediction market issue is not just about platform mechanisms; there are still areas in the infrastructure that need improvement. The BNB Chain ecosystem clearly recognizes this: platform improvements alone are insufficient; infrastructure innovation is also required. Therefore, it has incorporated prediction market infrastructure into its ecosystem.

@APRO_Oracle: An AI-enhanced decentralized oracle platform focused on providing high-fidelity, reliable off-chain data for cutting-edge ecosystems. It vertically serves high-growth sectors such as RWA, AI agents, prediction markets, and DeFi.

Graduated from EASY S1, with other institutional backers including Polychain Capital, Franklin Templeton (FTDA_US), ABCDE, etc., and has completed multiple rounds of financing.

The platform has completed over 77,000 data verifications and over 78,000 AI Oracle calls, continuously providing data support for top-tier RWA, AI, and prediction market projects.

The token $AT has been listed on Binance Spot, currently boasting a market capitalization of $28 million and an FDV of $122 million. It's considered one of the leading projects in S1.

@soraoracle: An autonomous proxy decentralized oracle built on the BNB Chain, focused on providing an autonomous truth layer of real-world events for the prediction market.

The platform is currently in its early stages, and developers can deploy production-grade prediction markets with a single click using its TypeScript SDK + CLI.

IV. Summary of KOL Viewpoints

@Dune (on-chain data platform): Prediction markets are not gambling, but are becoming the most accurate information network in the world. More accurate than opinion polls and expert surveys, faster than econometric models, clearer hedging mechanisms than traditional derivatives, and more transparent signals than media reports.

Matt Huang (Founder of Paradigm) @matthuang: Prediction markets are civilization-scale truth-telling machines, but they are also a way to find interesting and useful financial exposures that society demands in a breadth-first manner.

Ella (Head of Yzi Labs) @ellazhang516: Prediction is an innate human trait, practiced from hunting to AI. Prediction markets built upon this trait have enormous potential. The real opportunity lies not in replicating Polymarket, but in addressing its pain points—embedding predictive behavior into everyday scenarios like TikTok using faster oracles, a seamless user experience, and aggregated liquidity, thus evolving it from a trading product into a social-level infrastructure for truth and consensus.

Winry (KOL) @vonzz6: Experiences and personal views on the three major prediction market projects on the BNB Chain. From a product perspective, she points out that the prediction market on the BNB Chain has entered a high-frequency game stage, which marks the transition of the prediction market from "single platform dominance" to a mature stage of "multi-dimensional product competition".

Sean Ziqi (KOL) @Seanzhao1105: An analysis of the horse racing mechanism in Binance's prediction market. He cites Taleb's theory, pointing out that the fierce horse racing within BNB Chain is essentially "the evolution of the system through the sacrifice of individuals." Although this competition may erode the data of early-mover projects (such as Opinion), for the entire Binance ecosystem, this brutal selection mechanism builds an extremely robust and self-iterable prediction market system.

EWL (KOL) @jeg6322: In a comparative analysis of emerging prediction markets, he pointed out that differentiation is the core competitiveness. After reviewing five new projects, he noted that Solana's @factmach is the most innovative product in its focus on the interplay of "subjective opinions," while BNB Chain's @predictdotfun relies more on CZ's social endorsement.

TIGER (KOL) @tiger_web3: BNB Chain prediction market competition, commenting on three prediction market projects. He believes that the current prediction market track is showing a trend of "L2ization", that is, the competition among projects is becoming more and more purely about background, reputation and ecosystem resources, while the requirements for pure technological innovation are decreasing.

Jiayi (XDO founder) @mscryptojiayi: She points out that the new generation of prediction markets is exhibiting a combination of UGC and Bonding Curve characteristics. Unlike Pump.fun, which maps sentiment, the new paradigm transforms the "PVP zero-sum game" into a deterministic game where "event outcomes are settleable".

BITWU (KOL/4XLabs) @Bitwux: He pointed out that prediction markets have shown a clear explosive trend this year, with an extremely clear long-term logic: when information is priced, probability becomes an asset. Furthermore, prediction markets are unaffected by bull or bear markets; gamblers will always exist—that's the appeal of its narrative.

V. Step-by-step guide: How can retail investors participate?

BNB Chain's prediction markets are all in their early stages, and we can accumulate potential rewards (usually in the form of points, which may be converted into token airdrops in the future) by using the platform. Specific strategies fall into two categories:

1) For example, for projects that have already launched products such as Opinion and Predict Fun, the transaction volume is the future airdrop, and trading is mining.

2) For projects like Bento and 42 that haven't been publicly tested yet, register on the waitlist in advance.

Let's take a closer look at how to participate in these projects:

1. Stable Choice: Opinion Labs

Opinion is currently a better option: After connecting your wallet by visiting app.opinion.trade, you can accumulate points through market orders, limit orders, providing liquidity, or holding positions (distributed weekly based on activity). Points will be related to future tokens.

2. Zero-fee trial: Probable

Probable is an earlier-stage platform: users can access probable.markets for zero-fee prediction trading (with automatic conversion of any token to USDT). Although there is no official points system yet, the official website has a points page, and many users choose to participate in small amounts and are active on Discord, hoping for the points system to be launched or for retroactive rewards to be introduced later.

3. "Wool Party" (a term referring to those who exploit promotional offers): Predict fun

Predict Fun is currently in the airdrop phase, based on your trading snapshots on platforms such as Polymarket, Opinion Labs, Aster, Limitless, and Myriad, but a certain trading volume is required to unlock the airdrop.

4. New gameplay: 42

Currently in whitelist beta testing, featuring a novel mechanism (Bonding Curve issuing event assets). You are welcome to use the Biteye invitation code BITEYE25 to participate in early beta testing.

5. Mystery Gift Pack: Bento

Bento is currently on the Alpha Testnet and is expected to launch on the mainnet in early January. Register now at waitlist.bento.fun to join the waitlist and get early access for a chance to win a Bento Mystery Box.

VI. Conclusion

From Pump.fun to HyperLiquid, the crypto industry has shifted from "fat protocols" that are built in bulk to "fat applications".

In the past, we were fascinated by high-performance public chains and complex L2 architectures, but this is merely an overabundance of infrastructure. The real value lies in who can handle genuine transaction demands.

Prediction markets are the ultimate form of this "fat application"—they don't produce information, but they provide the most accurate pricing venue for fragmented cognition globally.

Polymarkets are just the beginning of this transformation. In the future, prediction markets will become the unchanging infrastructure of the quantitative world. Will you choose to continue gambling on chance, or will you price the future with your understanding in a market based on truth?

The answer lies in the moment you place your bet.