Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher
Every round of bull and bear markets always brings in a group of curious new faces. In their eyes, Ethereum is often an important threshold to enter the crypto world - with advanced technology, mature ecology and solid industry position.
But is reality really so beautiful?
On one hand, there is the trust of newcomers in Ethereum, and on the other hand, there is the ruthlessness of the market. After communicating with several university students majoring in blockchain, we found that there may be a certain gap between their expectations and the current situation of ETH.
Are these hopeful newcomers the builders of the future, or will they be passers-by who will eventually be ruthlessly eliminated by the market?
Ethereum from a Newbie’s Perspective: Trust, Technology, and Understanding
Rabbit
I am a freshman majoring in blockchain. I am a complete novice and have never traded cryptocurrency or contracts.
Mr. Tusi has not entered the market yet because he believes that he does not have enough knowledge and dares not invest rashly. However, when talking about Ethereum, he said that he has a natural trust in Ethereum and believes that it is a leading project and is more authoritative.
When asked whether he would buy ETH in the future, he said he would consider it because he thought ETH looked less risky than other currencies.
Lucien
A senior student majoring in blockchain engineering, he mainly focuses on smart contract development and technical aspects, and has little knowledge of the market. ETH accounts for 20% of his cryptocurrency spot investment. Overall, he is optimistic about Ethereum.
Lucien said that from his perspective, Ethereum technology is developing, and the development of Ethereum is driving the development of the industry. For example, the upgrade of Ethereum some time ago reduced the gas fee on the chain a lot, reducing the interaction cost of users. And the improvement plan of the Cancun upgrade is also more friendly to developers. For example, the new opcode in EIP1153 has become an important part of Uniswap V4.
However, he also pointed out that Ethereum's framework is relatively mature and the current improvements are mainly optimization, so the growth rate is relatively limited.
Vernon
I have graduated from blockchain engineering for nearly a year, focusing on meme coins and contract trading, preferring short-term operations.
Among all crypto assets, ETH is the only large-cap currency that Vernon has invested in, mainly for financial management and risk diversification. When asked about the reason for choosing ETH, he said that when he bought it, the price of ETH had fallen sharply, and it had not broken through its historical high in this cycle, so he believed that there was still room for growth.
He expressed his understanding of ETH's sluggish performance in this cycle, and shared a similar view with Lucien - the challenge of Ethereum is that innovation is limited. Today, it is difficult for Ethereum to carry out large-scale reforms, and the pace of innovation has become cautious and fragmented.
Although the three newcomers in this exchange have different perspectives, they all have a good impression of Ethereum and recognize its value. In other words, Ethereum's "passerby popularity" in the newbie circle is still strong, like a "people-friendly big brother" in the crypto world. However, ideals are full, but reality may not be as they wish. The current situation of Ethereum may not be as optimistic as the newcomers see it.
Ethereum in Reality: How Long Can the Faith Last?
New demand for ETH is gradually weakening
Crypto KOL Murphy published an article revealing the current situation of investors from the current status of ETH data: high-level investors are increasing their positions, but new demand for ETH is weakening. After ETH fell below $2,000, there was almost no new purchasing power.
ETH’s recent cost basis distribution (CBD) shows two main groups of holders:
- The group that increased their positions at high levels ($3,200-$3,500): These investors did not sell when ETH fell to $1,900, but continued to increase their positions, showing strong belief and willingness to hold.
- Median position reduction group ($2,600-$2,800): This group of holders gradually reduced their positions after ETH fell below $2,300, and only a small number of chips are still held.
ETH CBD data in the past 3 months
ETH "Deflation Failure" Controversy
Peking University Ph.D. Hu Yilin wrote that ETH's so-called "deflation" is essentially a failed design. Under the PoS mechanism, even if the total amount of ETH is decreasing, it does not mean fair or healthy development.
He pointed out that there is structural inequality in Ethereum's economic model - stakers are always the "expansion" party, while frequent traders bear the cost of "deflation". The rich, vested interests, and old money always sit firmly in the profit zone. The more active the network transactions, the more gas fees are burned, the more ETH deflation, and they are still the beneficiaries. For newcomers, retail investors, and low-level traders, the more frequent the transactions, the heavier the gas fee burden, and they are further squeezed by the deflation mechanism.
Hu Yilin summarized sharply: Under the ETH system, old money can not only outperform inflation with zero risk, but also enjoy interest; even under the deflation mechanism, the "faucet" on old money is not only not closed, but opened even more vigorously.
Whales frequently leave the market
According to data shared by on-chain analyst Ali, whale addresses sold nearly 130,000 ETH in the past week.
- On March 13, the giant whale..eCa41 liquidated the 6,401 ETH purchased in December 2023, with a loss of 1.974 million US dollars.
- On March 14, after holding the ETH for 25 years, the ETH whale recharged 16,467 ETH to HTX, or made a profit of 13.1 million US dollars.
- On March 17, the wallet that had been dormant for three years sold all 67 ETH (worth $1.92 million) and earned only $126,000.
- ......
Don't let faith become a fight to the death
The world is bustling with people, all seeking profit.
The brand, technology, and ecosystem that Ethereum has accumulated over the years have shaped its trust in the eyes of newcomers, making them willing to take root, learn, try, and explore here.
But the market is ruthless...
Ethereum, don’t let them end up learning only one thing: “run fast.”
