Author: Route 2 FI, Substack

Compiled by: BitpushNews Yanan

The crypto market is going through a profound transformation, especially for newcomers who have only entered the space in the past 12 to 16 months.

What once seemed like a relatively simple way of trading—operating on a centralized exchange and being “halfway to success”—has become increasingly complex. The entire market landscape is more like a high-volatility gambling arena than a traditional financial trading market, placing unprecedented demands on traders’ agility and market awareness.

The "buy and hold" (HODL) strategy that has worked well in the past is now basically ineffective. Everyone's holding period has been greatly shortened, from a few months to just a few weeks or even a few days. (Remember the classic advice from those old players? Stick to "buy altcoins at a low price and hold them until the bull market peaks and sell them")

The main reason for this change is that new projects and new tokens have sprung up like mushrooms after a rain. They compete for market attention and capital flow, constantly challenge the status of old projects, make market competition more intense, and the market situation is therefore changing rapidly.

Even events that are traditionally seen as positive can trigger unexpected market reactions. For example, Trump’s high-profile launch of the Meme coin may bring a large number of new users and attention to the entire crypto space, but at the same time it may cause the prices of many altcoins to suffer heavy losses. Usually, the beneficiaries of these events are limited to Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL) and the Meme coin itself. Many crypto investors have deeply realized this by “paying tuition fees” - if they do not have a heavy position in BTC and SOL in their portfolio, they are likely to face the risk of a significant reduction in assets.

Similar market dynamics played out when Berachain was announced, which caused a shock to the Abstract ecosystem as market attention and funds quickly flowed to the former. In this highly volatile and uncertain environment, the safest strategy is to accept that this volatility will become the norm and realize that market volatility may further increase as new tokens, new public chains, and new projects continue to emerge.

Currently, many investors are re-adjusting their strategies, gradually increasing their holdings of BTC and stablecoins, while significantly reducing their long-held altcoin positions. The market's focus is shifting from the concept of "long-term investment" in altcoins to a "trading" strategy that focuses more on short-term opportunities.

One of the core goals of participants in the current cycle is to avoid being the last person to buy a failed project and watch its price go to zero. In the second half of the current market cycle, long-term investments in any currency other than Bitcoin (BTC) may not be able to achieve the desired risk-return. While altcoins may be close to the bottom, the possibility of all currencies, NFTs, and ecosystems collectively reaching new highs is becoming increasingly unlikely.

A large number of new coins are issued every day, which not only distracts the market's attention, but also makes funds more dispersed, making it difficult for old projects to rise again.

This round of crypto market cycle is particularly challenging, and market uncertainty is more obvious than ever. In the past, investors usually believed that popular altcoins would rebound sooner or later after a sharp drop, but now, this confidence is being shaken.

In the market cycles of 2017 and 2021, investors were generally willing to buy the altcoins they favored when the market fell, provided that the market capitalization of these projects was not too small (usually not less than $100 million). The consensus at the time was that the prices of these currencies would at least rebound within that cycle. Tokens that gain market recognition early on tend to maintain their advantages until the end of the cycle.

However, this cycle is different (yes, it is different). The market is awash with narratives and sub-narratives that compete for fleeting attention. Investors are now more cautious about “buying the dip” because the entire market narrative that a coin relies on could collapse at any time, rendering the investment worthless.

In the past, we were used to an overall market cycle, but now the market is cut into multiple independent "mini cycles", each experiencing its own rise and fall. Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) are still seen as relatively safe assets and may eventually maintain their status, but their returns are no longer so attractive for investors seeking exponential growth - after all, BTC has rebounded 6 times from the bottom, and SOL has risen 20 times. The key question at this time becomes: should you invest in crypto projects in the AI track? Although this track has received much attention recently, many tokens have fallen sharply from their historical highs, and there is no guarantee that they will return to their peak.

The fragmentation of the market makes it more difficult for investors to accurately capture and take advantage of emerging trends. The crypto market has always been a highly speculative field, although past market cycles have tried to give it legitimacy, such as emphasizing "peer-reviewed blockchain technology", "solid fundamentals" and "real-world applications". However, this round of cycles has basically abandoned these appearances and accepted a more "nihilistic" market logic-everything depends on whether it can attract and maintain market attention.

The direct consequence of this trend is that the market's attention span is becoming shorter and shorter. In the past, the bull market cycle could last for a year or even longer, but now the market's frenzy may only last for a few months, weeks, or even a few days.

Currently, the market seems to be in a "meme super cycle" (or is it over?). However, even the most popular meme coins have fallen sharply from their peak, making the rationale of investing in them questionable.

The risk of being a “buyer” is higher than ever. In past market cycles, similar price plunges were often seen as bargain hunting opportunities because the market generally believed that the prices of these tokens would eventually rebound. But now the question is: Can these currencies regain the attention they once had?

The current market is more inclined to "leaders" rather than "laggards". Projects that bet on undervalued tracks or focus on fundamentals but lack market enthusiasm tend to be marginalized.

Although Meme Coin and AI are the current winners in the market, investors remain cautious about these trends - the market's focus shifts too quickly and is difficult to predict. The core reason for this general uncertainty is that there are too many options in the market. Thousands of tokens and projects are vying for investors' attention, making it increasingly difficult to discern which projects have real potential and which are just flash in the pan.

When attention spans are both fragmented and short, it’s harder for markets to form lasting uptrends. So is this the new normal for crypto markets, or just a blip caused by the current market environment? This remains an open question.

Every market cycle typically goes through a period of confusion and fragmentation before clear winners emerge. However, it is also possible that the market has fundamentally changed: investors’ attention spans have been permanently shortened, and no single narrative can dominate the market for long.

Macroeconomic factors are also shaping the current market landscape. Past loose monetary policies made investing relatively simple, and ample liquidity fueled the formation of speculative bubbles. However, in an environment of high interest rates and tight liquidity, the market has become more difficult to navigate.

Investors’ declining confidence in “buying the dip” may reflect broader economic realities. Investors have become more conservative amid heightened economic uncertainty. There has also been increasing talk of a four-year cycle, with some predicting it will be extended. However, despite some changes in the market, the four-year cycle is still in play, just in a different pattern than before. Compared to past bull runs, this cycle appears more subdued—Bitcoin (BTC) is only about 1.5 times higher than its previous high, and Ethereum (ETH) has not even broken through its previous high.

This round of market rise is mainly driven by the launch of Bitcoin ETF and institutional investors such as MicroStrategy. These factors have attracted new institutional funds into the Bitcoin market, but outside of BTC, the inflow of funds is obviously insufficient. In addition to Bitcoin, speculative funds mainly flow to Meme coins, and the life cycle of these tokens is shorter than before, and the market rhythm has become extremely fast.

The broader speculative funds still seem to have not returned to the market, and the market lacks the momentum to push the overall new high. Funds are more flowing within the crypto market, rather than a steady influx of new capital. Due to the lack of strong liquidity providers, the current market hotspots cannot form a large enough funding effect, nor can they attract a large number of new investors to enter the market.

The characteristics of this cycle are significantly different from those of past bull markets. This raises a fundamental question: Has the cyclical pattern of the crypto market changed? The key factors that drove the bull market in the past - loose monetary policy and enthusiastic retail investors - seem to be less powerful in the current environment. The market's expected "alt season", a stage in which all altcoins generally usher in exponential growth, has not yet really arrived.

The gap between BTC and TOTAL2 (the difference between Bitcoin's market value and the total market value of all other crypto assets) has continued to widen since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF. In the past, the "alt season" was often a period of "brainless rise", and all tokens would rise due to the influx of speculative funds. However, today's Bitcoin market has become an independent ecosystem, and its price movements are more driven by ETFs, micro-strategies, macroeconomic factors and political factors, rather than traditional crypto market cycles.

In contrast, the altcoin market is more like a high-risk casino, and it is only worth participating if "net capital inflow is high" and "the right table is chosen".

Where there are winners, there are losers. The crypto casino of 2025 is more difficult to navigate than ever before. There are too many "tables" (i.e. different altcoin tracks) in the market at the same time, and a large number of new tokens are born every day, competing for market attention and capital flow. Too many investment options make it more difficult to identify real opportunities, and also increase the risk of investors betting on the wrong track and becoming "taker". To survive in this complex and rapidly changing market, you need extremely high market acumen, execution and adaptability, which not everyone has.

Despite this, some people still hold out hope for a “copycat season.” I hope they are right.