I believe that many people have been confused by the recent market decline, so that the once vigorous AI Agent new narrative has also been shrouded in a cloud. Thousands of words converge into one question: Is the AI Agent new narrative declared over? To be honest, I don’t know whether the currency price has bottomed out, but the evolution of the AI Agent narrative is still smooth. Next, let me talk about a few opinions:
1) I won’t say much to comfort you. Like everyone else, those who have high hopes and confidence in AI Agents are suffering as their position values continue to shrink.
The core reason is that although the primary market Build has a clear "value investment and research" direction of pursuing AI infra, framework standards, and applications, the secondary market is too MEME-like and the team is somewhat makeshift. The risks in the overall AI Agent market chaos are far greater than the opportunities.
Therefore, when the macro environment is uncertain and the direction of the market is unclear, the AI Agent track, as a new track on the chain, naturally becomes the first target for capital to be cleared out for risk aversion, which makes it even more difficult for the track with insufficient liquidity to resist large market fluctuations. Therefore, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that the market will be cut in half or almost zero. But don’t forget, perhaps because of this, once the market environment stabilizes and opportunities arise again, the AI Agent track is likely to take off first.
2) Various signs indicate that the potential of the new narrative of AI Agent has just emerged and it is impossible to die down. On the one hand, the AI entrepreneurial forces overflowing from web2 are increasingly aware of the potential opportunities in the web3 field, and more excellent teams and projects will flock to web3 to try new possibilities. On the other hand, most of the old narratives of web3 that are in trouble will firmly grasp the new narrative of AI Agent to try new breakthroughs. Many well-known VCs and web3 regular army teams are planning to breed new projects.
In short, AI Agent represents the hope of the whole village, and its potential has just begun to explode. It does not have the fundamentals to stop and end now. In particular, the collective entry of some VCs and mature project parties will reshuffle the current chaos caused by the team being too grass-roots, and further increase the technical threshold (standardization) and internal circulation of the industry. For retail investors, it means that the stability and maturity of the track will be improved;
3) After this wave of turmoil, the two major AI Agent camps #ai16z and #Virtual have exposed their own problems, including the confusion in resource integration of ai16z and the uncertainty of the development potential of Virtual's closed-source ecosystem. After this big fluctuation, it is a good thing to be able to withdraw from the Fomo state and calm down. If any one side is overly mythical, it will not be conducive to the subsequent outbreak of greater potential.
After all, as a large commercial IP, ai16z is a spiritual totem. Open source innovation and community vitality represent the real future of ai16z. No matter how good the market Fud @shawmakesmagic is, as long as the developer group behind it still revolves around the ElizaOS framework, the future of ai16z is immeasurable.
The disadvantage of Virtual's closed-source ecosystem lies in the positive/negative spiral characteristics of its Tokenomics, which is very prominent in both the rising and falling periods of the market. However, behind this is the manifestation that its hype attribute is greater than its application value. I am more concerned about how Virtual's closed-source model can create more single AI applications with a higher experience level such as @aixbt_agent.
4) In the past three months, AI Agent has hastily evolved from AI MEME, AI single application, AI framework and standards, AI chain engineering, AI metaverse, DeFai and other directions. This speed of evolution is actually very dangerous. Take the framework and standards as an example. No matter how much you talk about it, it can't change the suspicion of "drawing cakes". Now the track is still in the stage of using single AI to change the user's mindshare. Without the richness of the application market, it is just an involution framework and standards, which is meaningless.
The root cause lies in the confusion of the market's value assessment system for the new direction of AI Agent. Many people believe that the more illusory directions such as artificial framework standards and metaverse are, the higher they are valued. In fact, this is not the case.
The development foundation of the AI Agent track is "application first". Any concept and direction will be useless if it cannot be built on the basis of application. If after a round of hasty hype, it is found that it has become a mess, then there is no doubt that single AI application will be the focus of the next stage of competition. Multimodal interaction, AI metaverse, and DeFai can all be hyped, but please take Agent out for a walk first.
5) The overall trend of AI Agent "chaining" will still exist, but it is time to deliver phased projects. Currently, the ElizaOS framework only has some practical primary solutions in the areas of Memory and Character, and there are many difficulties to overcome in order to incorporate the decentralized idea of chaining.
For example, DA capability. Traditional layer2 has achieved limited DA expansion through off-chain zk Proof and on-chain distributed verification. However, how to ZK the dynamic prompt input and output of the LLMs large model and how to verify the data availability after a long period of time are both big projects. For example, Oracle capability seems to be simple to feed the AI Agent with on-chain + off-chain data, but how to balance real-time performance and computing overhead, the complexity of on-chain data and the credibility of off-chain data are all big challenges.
Therefore, I still firmly believe that "chaining" will be the main theme of the next evolution of AI Agent, but how to deliver some valuable, scalable and verifiable solutions is the key. Simply applying the narrative of the old chain to AI Agent is not impossible, but there are still many engineering implementation details that need to be refined.
above.
Although it is highly likely that the direction of AI Agent will continue to be dominated by "chaos", AI Agent is a new direction used to redeem the old narrative, which means that the market will be extremely picky and harsh in examining all its evolutionary trends.
Some people try to move high FDV of VC coins into the field of AI Agent, AICC is full of elite predatory people, and some people who are just using web3 as a financing channel with evil intentions. I would like to advise that AI Agent is ultimately the road to counterattack of grassroots power. The community is the success or failure of the community. Projects that cannot be tied to the interests of the community will not go far.
