The meme continues, but the market's enthusiasm seems to have run out of steam.

Although memes are launched every day, compared with last year, how long has it been since you saw a new phenomenal golden dog?

Meme can't do that, but this doesn't seem to affect the progress of the Meme launch platform.

On June 4, Blockworks reported that Pump.fun plans to issue tokens to raise $1 billion at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion and sell approximately 25% of tokens.

This coin issuance is aimed at the public and private investors. It is rumored that it may be accompanied by an airdrop, and the token may be named "$PUMP", but the specific details have not yet surfaced.

Although Pump.fun has not officially responded to confirm the authenticity of this coin issuance plan, by comparison, Circle, the issuer behind the stablecoin USDC, is seeking an IPO on the U.S. stock market, and its public valuation is only US$7.2 billion.

At present, the market's reaction to this news has begun to diverge.

As soon as the news came out, the ALON (the same name as Pump founder @a1lon_9) token on Pump.fun once rose by 102%, and the logic of pure gambling continues.

Some people are optimistic about Pump.fun's ability to attract money and expect the tokens to bring dividends or governance dividends; others scoff at it, believing that the $4 billion valuation is outrageous and cannot hide the intention of "scamming people".

Enthusiasm and fatigue coexist, opportunities and risks are intertwined.

If this meme launcher that is closest to transactions, gambling, and volatility really issues coins, will it be the savior of the exhausted market, or the last cut without looking back?

The answer may lie in its valuation logic and market pulse.

Attack on Pump.fun, is it worth 4 billion?

If PUMP really follows the coin issuance plan disclosed by Blockworks, its FDV will be around 4 billion US dollars. Is it worth the price?

Perhaps we can use some data to explore the valuation logic.

Public data shows that as of May this year, Pump.fun's annual revenue totaled 296 million. If estimated under the same conditions, the annualized revenue is about 710 million (296.1 million ÷ 5 × 12).

According to this revenue situation, from the perspective of traditional valuation methods, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S, valuation of 4 billion divided by annual revenue) is 5.63, which means that the market pays $5.63 for every dollar of revenue. Traditional markets often use this to measure growth, and the values of DeFi projects such as Uniswap are also similar.

If the PUMP token has the right to share in the revenue, assuming that the token can take away half of the revenue (350 million), the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E, valuation divided by profit) is about 11.4, which is lower than the average level of US technology stocks.

But the problem is that meme-related businesses are not very susceptible to traditional valuation. The valuation of a meme launcher is certainly related to revenue, but FOMO and changes in market sentiment are the main factors.

Circle has a stable and compliant USDC business, with an IPO valuation of US$7.2 billion; but Pump.fun's valuation of US$4 billion corresponds to the first meme launcher in the circle, and its valuation exceeds half of Cicle. This is indeed a bit unreasonable.

Moreover, the income of Pump.fun was not very stable. At its worst, the daily income was only about 110,000 US dollars.

From monthly revenue exceeding 100 million on November 11, 2024, to the highlight of daily revenue of 14 million on January 2, 2025, to the daily revenue as low as 110,700 on March 9 this year...the revenue of this platform has fluctuated nearly 100 times, highlighting the cyclical nature of the Meme market.

The revenue low point in March 2025 is actually a microcosm of the evaporation of the Meme market's market value and the decline of enthusiasm. For an emotion-driven business, revenue is fragile.

However, even so, the platform never lacks supply. Pump.fun has an average of 30,000 new tokens gushing out every day, and its trading volume accounts for half of Solana DEX.

The continuous issuance of this token contrasts sharply with the ups and downs of market sentiment, and it is difficult to find a stable anchor for its valuation.

An exhausted market, the final cut?

Pump.fun is still on the move. Whether it is the rumored coin issuance, or previous attempts to create its own AMM and innovate live broadcast functions, it can be seen that the platform itself has not stagnated.

But the entire market, especially the Meme market, seems to be a bit overwhelmed.

The market is already drying up. In December 2024, the overall market value of Meme fell from 137 billion to 96 billion, with 40 billion evaporated.

In 2025, Solana DEX transaction volume will shrink by 20% compared to last year, most new tokens will quickly return to zero, their life cycle will be further shortened, and PVP will become extremely difficult.

Occasionally there are golden dogs to support the event, but it is difficult to reproduce the grand occasion of the past.

Retail investors have turned from enthusiastically chasing the rise to waiting and watching, and community discussions are full of fatigue. The market is eager for new narratives - the next wave of AI, stablecoins, and the encrypted asset reserves of listed companies... rather than the high-valuation gambles of old platforms.

At the same time, Pump.fun's past is also frowned upon. In 2024, the platform repeatedly sold earned SOL for USDC; and data from January also showed that Pump.fun has sold about $182 million of SOL tokens since January this year.

Earning SOL absorbs liquidity; selling SOL will affect prices and confidence to some extent.

The community is currently generally skeptical about Pump’s coin issuance. For example, researcher Haotian believes: “It is hard to imagine that a MEME launch platform has a valuation that exceeds most DeFi blue-chip protocols. This may be a sign of the maturity of the MEME economy, or it may be a signal of the collapse of industry values.”

After issuing tokens for financing, what will Pump.fun do after getting the money? Can it bring about essential upgrades in the gameplay of the Meme market?

Judging from the current information, the answer seems to be no; not to mention that a variety of launch pads have emerged in the past month, all of which are challenging the status of this former number one launch pad in their own way.

The last brother, or the last cut?

Until the answer is revealed, it's always better to be cautious.