PANews reported on February 3rd that, according to Cointelegraph, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly rose above 50 in January, the first time since mid-2022. This data has sparked differing opinions among analysts regarding the "reflation" trade and its impact on Bitcoin prices. Andre Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, believes the PMI rebound is a result of significant increases in gold and silver prices, signifying the formation of a "reflation" environment, which historically has often been accompanied by Bitcoin bull markets. Trader Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that while the PMI broke 50 for the first time in three years, this is not necessarily positive for the business cycle or Bitcoin; previous Bitcoin gains were mainly attributed to liquidity from ETFs, and the market is only now beginning to truly react.

However, trader Titan of Crypto holds a different view. He compared PMI data with Bitcoin price movements, pointing out that when the PMI rose above 50 in 2013, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin exhibited a hidden bullish divergence, subsequently initiating a bull market; while this current PMI rebound is accompanied by a typical bearish divergence. He believes that the same indicator with different structures can lead to different results. The current data paints an unclear picture of the US inflation path, and the market is concerned that inflation may rebound in 2026.