Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

Last Friday, Trump ordered strikes on Iranian military facilities on Kharg Island , which did not affect oil infrastructure, but warned that if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, he might strike its oil facilities. Kharg Island reportedly handles 90% of Iran's oil exports and is its economic lifeline. Analysts say that if the facilities are damaged, Iran's energy exports will be severely restricted, potentially leading to prolonged instability in the global oil market. Furthermore, Trump is attempting to garner support for a "Hormuz Coalition," warning that a lack of allies' support would jeopardize NATO's future.

It is worth noting that Bahrain Aluminium, the largest single aluminum smelter in the Middle East, announced over the weekend that it was forced to cut 19% of its capacity (about 2.2% of global supply) due to shipping disruptions, directly triggering a surge in LME aluminum prices to a new high since 2022; UBS warned that more smelters face the risk of closure and decisively raised its 2026 aluminum price forecast by 13% to $3,250.

Since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran two weeks ago, gold prices have fallen by about 6%, raising questions about its safe-haven status. A report released by JPMorgan Chase on March 13th pointed out that the initial sell-off was merely a recurrence of historical patterns and not a sign of the safe-haven function failing. In the short term, if the stock market deteriorates further or expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to weaken, gold may remain under pressure.

However, JPMorgan Chase predicts that if energy disruptions persist and exacerbate the risk of stagflation, the Federal Reserve will shift its policy towards easing, and gold prices will rise significantly, potentially reaching $6,300 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Impacted by soaring oil prices and geopolitical turmoil, Goldman Sachs observed that asset management firms net sold $36.2 billion in S&P 500 futures between March 3rd and 10th, marking the largest single-week sell-off in a decade, and ETF short exposure rose to a three-year high . Goldman Sachs warned that the market is at a tipping point: if the geopolitical situation does not improve within two weeks, the stock market may face a crash ; however, if the situation eases, the massive short positions could trigger a sharp short squeeze, driving the market higher.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has also improved, with a 10.37% return last week, its best performance since September 2025, and today it broke through the $74,000 resistance zone that had plagued it for two weeks. The market has seen its eighth consecutive daily gain, completely breaking free from its strong correlation with tech stocks. Although the price has returned above key levels such as the 50-day and 200-week moving averages, the bulls currently only hold a slight advantage.

Bearish view

Weak macroeconomic data and the lagged effects of geopolitical conflicts hang like a sword of Damocles. Technically, a bearish flag pattern and a liquidity gap suggest that the current rally is likely a bull trap.

Trader Killa: Sticking to his shorting plan, waiting to clear liquidity above $74,000 before entering the market, while also pointing out that the gap around $71,300 on the CME will inevitably be filled. BTC may be repeating the price pattern of 2022, with the possibility of a brief breakout above the range high, but it will eventually fall back below $60,000.
Analyst AlphaBTC predicts that prices will rise further to capture liquidity above, but as the real economic impact of the Middle East conflict becomes apparent in the second and third quarters, the market will face another round of sharp declines.
Cointelegraph analysis: A bearish flag pattern is forming on the daily chart. Once it breaks below the lower trendline, the measured decline could push the price back down to the $51,000 abyss.
Analyst Kyle Doops: Downside risks have not been eliminated. Every time the price breaks through $70,000, it is met with robust profit-taking. The macroeconomic background does not support a pure market rescue rebound.

bullish view

The geopolitical stress test has been successfully absorbed, and the frenzied buying by on-chain whales, coupled with the strong technical breakthrough, is poised to target even higher resistance levels.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe: Friday's pullback was purely due to weekend risk aversion, and the market will continue to fluctuate upwards, heading straight for the strong resistance zone of $75,000 to $80,000.
Santiment: Whales holding 10 to 10,000 BTC are accelerating their hoarding, controlling 68.17% of the total supply, which is a positive sign of a market bottoming out and reversal.
Trader CrypNuevo: The long lower shadow on the 4-hour chart is very attractive. If the price retraces to fill the area at the open on Monday, it will push the price up to $75,000.
Analyst Peak: The $60,000 support zone perfectly validates the macro bottoming process. Current price momentum is strong, and we are closely watching the key level of $80,600.
Plan B: Bitcoin is holding steady above $70,000, although the 200-week moving average is lurking below, but historical patterns may be broken in this cycle.
Trader CJ: I'm closely watching price action above $74,000. I expect the market to consolidate before reaching the resistance level and then surge to $79,000 to $80,000.

Ethereum price quotes

Ethereum naturally followed Bitcoin's rise, achieving its strongest weekly performance in months. On-chain data shows that whales are accelerating their accumulation, with ShapeShift founder Erik Voorhees buying over 29,000 ETH (worth approximately $61.65 million) in the past week. Furthermore, there is a huge concentration of over 3 million ETH around $2,800, while historical supply between $2,200 and $2,800 is extremely limited, making the price highly susceptible to upward "magnetic attraction." Wintermute founder Evgeny Gaevoy also expressed his faith in Ethereum, stating that the Ethereum Foundation is the only team with the resources to realize the cypherpunk dream. He emphasized that achieving grand goals is more important than short-term price movements and will continue to hold for the long term. Trader Ash Crypto believes that if ETH can successfully stabilize above $2,400, the price will soon surge to $2,800.

However, it is worth noting that after the price tested the upper limit of the $2,200 range, many traders chose to close their positions rather than increase their risk exposure, which hindered the upward momentum and made it difficult to form a sustained breakthrough in the short term.

Market Dynamics

The Fear & Greed Index has risen, shifting from "Extreme Fear" to "Fear," and the market is seeing a small-scale surge in altcoin prices. AI-related tokens remain a hot topic, with Bittensor (TAO) attracting attention due to its decentralized computing power narrative, surging over 55% last week. In addition, some older meme coins have also begun to rise strongly, with Pepe, Bome, Cheems, Bonk, and Wif all increasing by over 10%.

Meanwhile, Andrei Grachev, a partner at DWF Labs , stated that as ETFs absorb market liquidity, institutional funds are rapidly concentrating on the BTC, ETH, and RWA sectors, while smaller altcoins lacking narrative support may gradually become marginalized, turning into high-risk speculative assets. Trader Eugene also expressed a bullish outlook, noting that several altcoins are exhibiting natural rounded bottom patterns , suggesting a higher probability of short-term upward movement in the crypto market. He believes that once the $74,000 level is effectively broken, the crypto market will see a comprehensive rise, with major coins like ETH and SOL expected to recover their previous ranges, returning to the $2,400 and $100 levels respectively.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 16)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: Net inflows of $767 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: Net inflows of $161 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows.
XRP ETF: Net outflow of $28.07 million last week
SOL ETF: Net inflow of $10.7001 million last week
Fear of Greed Index: 23 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, Trump, DKA
Sector Performance: The crypto sector continued its upward trend, with the Layer 1 sector rising 2.59% in the last 24 hours and the AI sector rising 2.47%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 69,545 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $255 million, including $93.76 million in BTC liquidations, $80.85 million in ETH liquidations, and $15.56 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

POAP: Starting March 16th, the platform will enter maintenance mode and will no longer be actively developed.
Coinbase will suspend trading of 25 perpetual contracts on March 16.
Binance will launch EWYUSDT (iShares MSCI Korea ETF) index perpetual contracts on March 16.
Upbit will discontinue Flow and Loopring on March 16.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 93 million tokens, worth about $9.4 million, on March 16.
Doodles will launch the Doodles AI beta version on March 17th.
MetaDAO will launch the RNGR clearing portal on March 17th.
Ministry of Commerce: China-US trade consultations will be held from March 14 to 17.
Nvidia's GTC conference will be held (March 16-19).
Jensen Huang delivers a keynote speech at the GTC conference (March 17, 2:00 PM).
The Optical Communications Conference (OFC) will be held from March 15th to 19th.
Japan announced that it will begin releasing some of its oil reserves on March 16.
A US judge has ordered Maduro to appear in court again on March 17.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Pepe up 18.2%, Bonk up 12.1%, Polkadot up 12%, ASI Alliance up 11.3%, and Cardano up 9.8%.

Analyst: ETH has regained the key support level of $1574

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