2026 TradFi x Crypto Outlook: 8 Macro Forces and 7 Investment Trends Driving 2026

CoinFoundry's annual report predicts 2026 will be a period of accelerated development for "programmable finance," driven by the deep integration of traditional finance (TradFi) and crypto. The report outlines eight major macroeconomic forces and seven key investment trends for 2026.

Key Macro Forces Impacting TradFi x Crypto in 2026:

Fiat Trust Crisis & Hard Assets: Global debt risks are pushing institutions toward "hard assets" like gold and Bitcoin.
Geopolitical Clearing Systems: Blockchain is emerging as an alternative to SWIFT for cross-border settlements.
AI Monetization & Machine Payments: AI agents create demand for compliant stablecoins and on-chain automated settlements.
Energy as Core Asset: Mining firms are transforming into infrastructure-focused "hybrid computing centers."
RWA Shift to Utility: Tokenized real-world assets (RWA) are becoming programmable collateral to boost capital efficiency.
Private Lending Transparency: Maturing debt may force a shift to on-chain, transparent auditing using zero-knowledge proofs.
Infrastructure Consolidation: Giants are consolidating the market through acquisitions of stablecoin middleware and custodians.
Emerging Market Dependence: Crypto is becoming a fundamental tool for payments and remittances in emerging economies.

2026 Trend Outlook:

The RWA market will boom structurally, with stablecoins bottoming at a ~$320B market cap.
Stablecoins 2.0 will evolve from crypto payments to competing for global payment infrastructure.
Stock tokenization liquidity will grow rapidly, with DeFi integration being key.
Private lending RWA will shift to an "asset-driven" model under default risk pressures.
Gold and commodities RWA will usher in a new "full asset collateralization" era.
RWA liquidity will concentrate, with three asset types gaining favor on exchanges.
Crypto concept stocks and DAT (Digital Assets & Technologies) will see differentiation and concentration.

Summary: The report views 2025 as a year of "demystification and integration," while 2026 will be marked by a "secondary market boom and credit expansion." It forecasts a liquidity explosion in RWA trading, a shift toward riskier asset classes for higher yields, and warns of systemic risks from off-chain defaults triggering on-chain liquidations. Ultimately, both TradFi and Crypto are converging under "On-chain Finance."

Author: CoinFound, TradFi × Crypto Data Technology Company

On January 21st, CoinFound officially released its "CoinFound Annual Report: TradeFi x Crypto 2026 Outlook," which focuses on the deep integration trend between TradeFi and Crypto. The following is a summary of the report:

2025 is the "convergence tipping point", and 2026 will enter the acceleration period of "programmable finance".

The report identifies 8 Mega Forces and 7 key trends: from stablecoin 2.0 competing for global payment infrastructure, to RWA shifting from "issuance" to "utility," and key variables such as stock tokenization, DAT differentiation and concentration.

Timeline of Key Events in Traditional Finance x Crypto in 2025

In 2026, the following macroeconomic trends will impact the TradeFi x Crypto space:

Trust crisis in the fiat currency system and the return of hard assets: Faced with the global debt spiral and the risk of "fiscal dominance", institutions are accelerating the allocation of "hard assets" such as gold, Bitcoin and commodities to hedge against the erosion of fiat currency credit.
Geopolitical factors drive the implementation of parallel clearing systems: The need to "deweaponize" financial infrastructure is pushing blockchain to become an alternative settlement solution independent of SWIFT, and atomic settlement mechanisms effectively reduce trust and counterparty risks in cross-border transactions.
AI productivity monetization and the rise of machine payments: The focus of AI investment has shifted from computing hardware to the generation of economic productivity, giving rise to a rigid demand for compliant stablecoins and on-chain automatic settlement by AI agents in order to realize the value confirmation between machines.
Energy becomes a core asset and mining companies become infrastructure-oriented: Power shortages have prompted mining companies to transform into "hybrid computing centers," and their scarce power access (time-to-power) has triggered mergers and acquisitions by tech giants, driving the valuation of mining companies to be restructured towards data center infrastructure.
On-chain assets (RWA) are moving from issuance to utility: asset tokenization is entering the "programmable finance" stage. RWA is no longer just a digital certificate, but a core collateral that can significantly improve the capital efficiency of the repurchase market and global liquidity as 24/7.
Private lending faces stress tests and a transformation toward transparency: A wave of debt maturing in 2026 may trigger default risks, forcing the industry to shift from a "black box" approach to real-time on-chain transparent auditing based on zero-knowledge proofs (ZK) in order to avoid a chain of liquidation crises in DeFi.
Infrastructure is shifting from fragmented competition to consolidation by giants: The market is entering a consolidation phase similar to the telecommunications industry, with payment and financial giants securing their positions in the market through mergers and acquisitions of stablecoin middleware and custodians, eliminating redundancy and building compliance moats. Emerging markets are shifting from speculation to structural dependence: Crypto assets have become a fundamental tool for payments and remittances in emerging markets, and their vast real-world user base makes them a core hub connecting traditional financial assets with global retail liquidity.

The trend outlook for 2026 is as follows:

1. The RWA market is experiencing a structural boom, stablecoins are bottoming out at a market size of 320 billion, and equities and commodities will become new growth drivers.

2. Stablecoins enter the 2.0 era, from crypto payments to competing for global payment infrastructure.

3. Stock tokenization liquidity may grow rapidly, and DeFi integration will be key.

4. Private lending RWA is shifting towards an "asset-driven" model, and may accelerate its differentiation under the pressure of "default" risk.

5. Gold and Commodities: RWA Ushers in a New Era of "Full Asset Collateralization"

6. RWA liquidity will become more concentrated, and three types of RWA assets are gaining favor with exchanges.

7. The Rise of Crypto Concept Stocks and the Differentiation and Concentration of DAT (Digital Assets and Technologies)

Summarize

2025 Summary: 2025 was a year of "demystification and integration" for TradeFi and Crypto. Blockchain technology is moving away from its "revolutionary" aura and returning to being a highly efficient accounting and settlement technology. The success of RWA (Retail Asset Management) bonds proved the feasibility of putting traditional assets on-chain, while the full-scale entry of giants like BlackRock provided irreversible credit endorsement for the industry.

2026 Forecast: 2026 will be a year of "secondary market boom and credit expansion." We predict:

Liquidity explosion: With the improvement of infrastructure, RWA will shift from "holding for interest" to "high-frequency trading".
Credit downsizing: Asset classes will shift from high-credit government bonds to corporate bonds, stocks, and emerging market credit, with risk premiums becoming a new source of returns.
Risk warning: As RWA grows in scale, the complexity of off-chain defaults escalating to on-chain liquidation will be the biggest systemic risk.

In 2026, both TradeFi and Crypto will be unified under the banner of "On-chain Finance".

The full report, "CoinFound Annual Report: TradeFi x Crypto 2026 Outlook," can be found here: https://app.coinfound.org/zh/research/4