PANews reported on April 5 that Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended for the following reasons:
There is a concept in on-chain data called realized market cap. It works like this: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it is considered a "buy", and when it leaves, it is considered a "sell". Using this idea, we can estimate the average cost basis of each wallet, multiply it by the number of BTC held, and we can get the total realized market cap, which is generally regarded as the total capital that has entered the Bitcoin market through actual on-chain activity, while the market cap is based on the latest trading price on the exchange.
When selling pressure is low, even small purchases can push up prices and, therefore, market capitalization. Strategy took advantage of this by issuing convertible bonds and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, growing the paper value of their Bitcoin holdings far more than the actual capital invested. But when selling pressure is high, even large purchases can’t move prices, such as when Bitcoin was trading near $100,000, with huge market volume but little price movement.
Realized market capitalization shows how much real money is entering the market, while market capitalization reflects how prices react. If realized market capitalization is growing, but market capitalization is stagnant or falling, it means that capital is flowing in, but prices are not rising - a classic bearish sign. On the other hand, if realized market capitalization is flat and market capitalization is surging, it shows that even small amounts of new capital are pushing prices up - a bullish sign. What we are seeing now is the former, where capital is entering the market but prices are not reacting, which is a classic feature of a bear market.
In short: when small capital drives prices up, it's a bull market. When big capital also fails to drive prices up, it's a bear market. Current data clearly points to the latter. Selling pressure could ease at any time, but historically, a true reversal takes at least six months - so a short-term rebound seems unlikely.
