Next week's macro outlook: The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are bleak this year, Trump's divine assistance may usher in a second boiling moment for gold

PANews reported on May 24 that Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and Trump's trillion-dollar "Beautiful Bill" have once again set off a wave of selling US dollar assets in the past week. On Friday, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the European Union and Apple triggered a "triple kill" of US stocks, bonds and currencies. The US dollar has fallen to a three-week low, and this week it has recorded its largest weekly drop since the announcement of the reciprocal tariff plan in early April. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 2:40 a.m. on Monday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a graduation speech at Princeton University's graduation ceremony.

At 16:00 on Tuesday, Kashkari, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Minneapolis Fed, participated in the policy panel discussion of the Japan Institute for Financial Research meeting and delivered a speech.

At 8:00 a.m. on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's Financial Research Institute meeting.

At 16:00 on Wednesday, Kashkari, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Minneapolis Fed, participated in a dialogue and Q&A event at Keio University.

At 2:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting.

At 20:30 on Thursday, Barkin, a 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President, will participate in a fireside chat.

At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 24 and the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States will be released.

At 22:40 on Thursday, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a question and answer session.

At 4:00 a.m. on Friday, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in an economic-related fireside chat at the Oakland Rotary Club.

At 8:25 a.m. on Friday, Logan, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Dallas Fed, delivered an opening speech for an event and participated in the dialogue.

At 20:30 on Friday, the U.S. core PCE price index annual and monthly rates for April and the U.S. personal spending monthly rate for April will be released.

Next Friday will see the first US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation and consumption data since Trump's "Liberation Day". Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, fell sharply in March, from 3.0% to 2.6% year-on-year. According to the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model, core PCE year-on-year growth is expected to remain unchanged in April, but overall PCE is expected to slow slightly to 2.2%.

With core inflation unchanged, it’s hard to see the Fed shifting to a more decisive course of action on rates. Realistically, it will take time for much of the inflationary pressure from tariffs to feed through to the data, so it may be months before we know what effect Trump’s tariffs have on price growth.

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Author: PA一线

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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