1. BTC has completed its mission of leading the market, and the market structure is about to change
Bitcoin has risen steadily over the past 12 months and has successfully defended the $100K key support three times. It is currently in a typical "bump-and-run" technical pattern. Combined with:
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice;
Year-to-date net ETF inflows have exceeded $16 billion;
Blackstone ETFs manage over $75 billion;
It can be judged that the funding basis behind this round of Bitcoin's rise comes from structural inflows rather than retail bubbles. As the inflow of funds slows down, Bitcoin will lose its unilateral dominance, and market attention will begin to shift to other sectors.
2. ETH is on a strong trend, with clear signals of supply and demand imbalance
Ethereum is entering its main uptrend:
Up more than 81% since April;
ETF net inflows exceeded 61,000 ETH/week for 8 consecutive weeks;
The on-chain ETH holding balance has dropped to an 8-year low, with only 13.5% of the supply remaining on exchanges;
More importantly, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is building a reversal range. If it stabilizes at 0.027, it will trigger a structural market for ETH to attack $4K-$5K.
3. The rotation signal of altcoins has appeared, and Altseason may start
Altseason Index rebounded from a 4-year low of 12 to 27, marking the first shift in market structure. Several core indicators are releasing rotation signals:
Total market capitalization excluding BTC has increased 35% since April;
BTC market dominance reached 65%, a historical high;
If the dominance ratio falls back to 30–40% as in previous years, it will release a large amount of funds to flow into the altcoin sector;
At the same time, Solana, DeFi, and Memecoin (such as PEPE) are all accumulating funds in the early stages. The total locked value of DeFi has increased by 31% since April to US$117 billion.
4. Macroeconomic factors provide long-term support for the copycat market
The market is pricing in 2-3 rate cuts before 2025, and lower real yields mean that risky assets (especially small and medium-cap tokens) will become the new target of funds.
Looking back at history, every time the expectation of a rate cut becomes a reality, the increase in altcoins often far exceeds that of Bitcoin.
5. But beware: the structure of 2025 is not a copy of 2021
Despite the positive funding situation, the current market faces some new challenges:
The peak of project token unlocking is approaching;
The fragmented ecology of multiple chains exacerbates user diversion;
Investors are more concerned with fundamentals and token economics;
Therefore, the rise of altcoins will be more "selective" rather than "comprehensive", and the quality and structure of the projects will determine the room for growth.
in conclusion:
When BTC reaches a new high, ETH confirms the trend, altcoins are in a valuation trough, and macro expectations turn to easing - this is a rare structural buying opportunity. Although the market will not soar like in 2021, the rotation pattern of mature funds will not change.
Now is the time to:
Reduce over-allocation to BTC and increase attention to copycat projects with strong narratives and strong structures.
The next round of wealth transfer may happen quietly during this round of altcoin structure period.
