PANews reported on March 4 that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest blog post that although the US stock market index is still close to its historical high, Bitcoin has signaled an approaching liquidity crisis. Based on this, Hayes believes that the US stock market will experience a severe correction due to recession concerns. Hayes pointed out that if Bitcoin leads the trend when the market falls, it will play a similar role when it rises. Due to the huge leverage in the system, minor financial disturbances can quickly evolve into full-scale panic. If his prediction is accurate, the Federal Reserve will act soon. Bitcoin will bottom out first, and the fiat financial system dominated by the US stock market will then fall into trouble.

Hayes firmly believes that we are still in a bull market cycle, so the worst case scenario for Bitcoin is a fall back to the previous cycle's all-time high of $70,000. But he is not sure if it will fall to that level. A positive sign is the decline in the total account balance of the U.S. Treasury, which is equivalent to a liquidity injection. Based on his confidence in Trump's financial policies and his goals, Hayes increased his exposure when Bitcoin traded in the $80,000 to $90,000 range. If the current situation is just a "dead cat bounce", he expects Bitcoin to drop to a low of $80,000 again. If the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 index falls 20% to 30% from its all-time highs, and a large financial institution is on the verge of bankruptcy, global markets may fall synchronously, all risk assets will be frustrated together, and Bitcoin may fall below $80,000, or even $70,000.

Regardless of how the market fluctuates, Hayes said he will cautiously buy on dips, not use leverage, and wait for the final shock of the global (especially the US) fiat financial market, which will drive Bitcoin to $1 million or even higher. He concluded: "Stay focused and buy Bitcoin."