Q3 is usually a crypto winter, but this year, it may be different?

Historically, Q3 has been harsh for crypto markets, but this year may differ due to five key factors driving optimism:

  • MicroStrategy's potential S&P 500 inclusion: Expected to trigger $25-30B in passive fund inflows, with potential $1B+ Bitcoin purchases, boosting BTC prices.
  • Crypto ETF approvals: Solana's collateralized ETF and Grayscale's fund conversions (covering BTC, ETH, SOL, etc.) signal institutional adoption, with altcoin ETF approval odds at 95% by 2025.
  • Fed liquidity release: A surge in overnight repo facilities ($11B) eases short-term rates, indirectly fueling risk appetite.
  • Anticipated Fed rate cuts: A pause in hikes since 2023 and political pressure on Powell (from Trump and others) may accelerate dovish policies, historically benefiting crypto and stocks.
  • $100B stock market inflow: Volatility control funds adding positions in July could lift crypto prices due to their correlation with Nasdaq.

Additional catalysts include the GENIUS Act (on-chain data compliance) and Ethereum staking ETF developments. Q3 presents a rare alignment of macro, funding, and narrative tailwinds for risky assets.

Summary

Q3 is usually a crypto winter, but this year, it may be different?

📈 Once selected, it will attract about $25-30 billion in passive funds to flow into its stocks

MicroStrategy has historically bought BTC by issuing additional shares or bonds, so this could mean:

The scale of its BTC purchases in Q3 may reach US$1 billion or more, driving Bitcoin to strengthen

✅ Reason 2: Crypto ETFs are approved one after another, and traditional finance fully embraces altcoins

  • SEC has officially approved Solana’s collateralized ETF, which will start trading today

  • At the same time, it approved the conversion of Grayscale's large digital asset funds into ETFs, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA

📊 According to Bloomberg analysts, the probability of approval of multiple altcoin ETFs has increased to 95% by 2025

This means:

The altcoin market is welcoming a new round of ETF-driven institutional incremental funds

✅ Reason three: The Federal Reserve starts releasing liquidity, and "invisible QE" happens quietly

  • On July 1, overnight repo facilities surged 11,000% to $11 billion

  • This means that short-term liquidity is being released forcefully, which helps to lower short-term interest rates and ease tensions in the financial system.

Although this type of operation is not equivalent to QE, it is essentially a partial release of liquidity, which has begun to drive up market risk appetite.

Q3 is usually a crypto winter, but this year, it may be different?

✅ Reason 4: The Federal Reserve may officially start the interest rate cut cycle in Q3

  • The Federal Reserve has suspended interest rate hikes for 9 consecutive months, and Q3 has become a window for starting interest rate cuts

  • After the last rate cut (September 2023), both the US stock market and the crypto market have seen a strong rebound

Q3 is usually a crypto winter, but this year, it may be different?

🗣 Trump continues to publicly pressure Powell and hints at replacing the chairman

💬 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also revealed that he is looking for a new Federal Reserve Chairman

This means one of two things:

  1. Powell complies with rate cut

  2. Replaced, the market welcomes a new round of dovish cycle

Either way, it's good for the market.

✅ Reason 5: The stock market will see an inflow of $100 billion, and the crypto market will benefit simultaneously

  • Volatility Control Funds to start adding U.S. stocks in July

  • As realized volatility continues to decline, such funds tend to build large positions at this stage

Estimates show that about $100 billion will flow into the U.S. stock market in July

Since cryptocurrencies are highly correlated with U.S. stocks (especially the Nasdaq), this will also drive the prices of Bitcoin and altcoins higher simultaneously.

🧾 Conclusion: My final thoughts

If you are still hesitating whether Q3 is suitable for entering the market, you may miss the most important market turning point this year.

In addition to the five reasons mentioned in this article, there are more mid- to long-term benefits in the works:

  • The GENIUS Act brings new opportunities for on-chain data and identity compliance

  • Ethereum staking ETF is also being promoted in full swing

📌 Summary: Q3 is a window period of resonance between funds, policies, and narratives. Whether it is the stock market or the crypto market, risky assets are very likely to usher in a round of strong rebound

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Author: BTC_Chopsticks

This article represents the views of PANews columnist and does not represent PANews' position or legal liability.

The article and opinions do not constitute investment advice

Image source: BTC_Chopsticks. Please contact the author for removal if there is infringement.

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