Today's top news highlights:
Grayscale: Bitcoin may hit a new high in 2026; the four-year cycle theory is questionable.
Kalshi blockchained thousands of prediction markets onto Solana
Macro
According to the Financial Times, several Chinese banks have successively stopped selling long-term, large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs). An investigation by reporters revealed that six major state-owned banks—Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), Bank of China (BOC), China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of Communications (BOCOM), and Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC)—have completely stopped selling 5-year CDs. Some joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have also begun to scale back their long-term deposit business. A search of the official apps of these six major banks revealed that the terms of large-denomination CDs have become significantly shorter, with the longest term being only 3 years, and interest rates have decreased compared to last year. For example, ICBC's 3-year product has an interest rate of 1.55%, while the 1-year and 2-year products both have an interest rate of 1.20%. Furthermore, Bank of China and CCB have also removed 5-year products, with only a small number of CDs available in their transfer lists. It is understood that the withdrawal of long-term, large-denomination CDs is not sudden. In May of this year, Bank of China announced that 5-year large-denomination CDs would only be sold to specific customers, but this has now been completely discontinued. At the same time, 3-year large-denomination CDs are also experiencing a shortage, with some banks reducing their longest selling term to 2 years. Liu Yinping, an analyst at Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute, explained that this change is related to the current downward trend in interest rates, with banks tending to reduce the supply of long-term deposit products in a low-interest-rate environment. On the other hand, in the past two years, residents have shown strong enthusiasm for saving, leading to rapid growth in bank deposits, while credit demand has been weak, resulting in banks' low incentive to absorb long-term deposits.
A research report released by the Swedish central bank (Riksbank) points out that despite differences in regulatory frameworks, the US and Europe are gradually showing substantial convergence in their stablecoin policies. The report focuses on analyzing three key dimensions of central bank policy: whether stablecoin issuers are allowed access to settlement systems, whether central bank reserves can be used as collateral, and whether liquidity support can be obtained. While the US and Europe legally allow the use of central bank reserves, practical restrictions remain. The European Central Bank has allowed some non-bank payment institutions to hold central bank account balances for transaction flows, but has not liberalized the use of stablecoins as backing.
Anthropic simulation test reveals $4.6 million smart contract vulnerability
According to the cutting-edge red team test results released by Anthropic, the AI agent identified multiple smart contract vulnerabilities in a simulated blockchain environment, with a potential exploit value of $4.6 million. The test covered the entire process, including contract analysis, command-line tool configuration, network reconstruction, exploit generation and verification, and introduced a new benchmark for smart contract security assessment. This research was jointly conducted by Anthropic, the MATS project, and the Fellows program.
According to Decrypt, several Coinbase shareholders have filed a lawsuit in Delaware against company executives and director Marc Andreessen, accusing him of concealing KYC, anti-money laundering loopholes, and data breach risks, and of cashing out $4.2 billion in stock before the information was made public. The plaintiffs are seeking substantial damages and board seats. Coinbase had previously announced its relocation to Texas, citing the "unpredictability" of Delaware court precedents as one reason.
Vanguard has launched cryptocurrency ETF trading, supporting major assets such as BTC and ETH.
According to Bloomberg, Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager, announced it will allow trading on its platform of ETFs and mutual funds that primarily hold crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, breaking its long-standing stance of rejecting crypto assets. This move will give its more than 50 million brokerage account users access to compliant crypto fund products, but funds related to memes are still excluded, and there are currently no plans to launch its own crypto products.
According to CoinDesk, Acting Chairman Travis Hill of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will state at a congressional hearing that the FDIC will release its first draft implementation of the GENIUS Act this month, outlining the federal regulatory application process for stablecoin issuance, and plans to introduce subsequent regulatory provisions, including capital and liquidity requirements, early next year. Hill also stated that the FDIC is developing regulatory guidelines for tokenized deposits.
DeepSeek releases version 3.2, enhancing its inference and tool-calling capabilities.
According to DeepSeek's official WeChat account, V3.2 and V3.2-Speciale models have been officially released. V3.2 achieves GPT-5 level performance on inference benchmarks, supports tool calls in thinking mode, and significantly improves agent generalization ability. V3.2-Speciale focuses more on mathematics and programming scenarios, achieving top-ten human performance in competitions such as IMO and IOI. The web, app, and API have been upgraded, with the Speciale model API temporarily open until December 15th.
According to the SEC website and Atkins' personal X account, at 10:15 PM Beijing time on December 2nd (9:15 AM Eastern Time), SEC Chairman Paul Atkins rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange and delivered a keynote speech entitled "Revitalizing America's Markets at 250" at 11:00 AM Beijing time, outlining future reforms to strengthen the U.S. capital markets. He will also be interviewed by CNBC's "Squawk Box" at 8:30 PM Beijing time.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.9%, the S&P 500 down 0.53%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.36%. Blockchain-related stocks all saw significant declines, with CRCL (Circle) down about 5%, MSTR (Strategy) down about 3.25%, and COIN (Coinbase) down about 4.76%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 87.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 12.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative total of 25 basis points by January next year is 69.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 9.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 21.3%.
Opinion
Grayscale: Bitcoin may hit a new high in 2026; the four-year cycle theory is questionable.
According to a recent report by Grayscale, Bitcoin's 32% pullback since early October is in line with historical averages, marking the ninth significant correction in the current bull market. Grayscale believes Bitcoin may not be entering a deep cyclical downturn, predicting its price could reach new highs next year, and questions the applicability of the four-year cycle theory. The report points out that this bull market has not seen the parabolic rise of past cycles, and the market structure has changed, with funds primarily flowing into exchange-traded products (ETPs) and digital asset vaults (DATs) rather than retail trading. Furthermore, privacy-oriented crypto assets have performed exceptionally well, with Zcash up 8%, Monero up 30%, and Decred up a remarkable 40%. Meanwhile, the first ETPs for XRP and Dogecoin have begun trading. Grayscale also mentions that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates again at its December 10th meeting, and the progress made by both parties in US bipartisan crypto legislation could provide further positive factors for the market. Despite continued market volatility in the short term, Grayscale remains optimistic about the crypto market outlook for 2026 and emphasizes the importance of long-term holding.
According to the latest data from F2Pool, with the current electricity price at $0.06/kWh, most older Bitcoin mining rigs have fallen below their shutdown price, entering a period of widespread losses. Data shows that the shutdown price for models such as the Antminer S19, S19j, S19 Pro, S17 series, Avalon A13/A12 series, and Whatsminer M20/M30 series is generally around $90,000 to $100,000 or higher, with negative daily net profits, approaching or reaching shutdown levels. In contrast, newer generation high-efficiency liquid-cooled models still have a significant advantage. The Antminer S23 Hyd. series has a shutdown price of approximately $32,200 and is currently maintaining positive profits; models such as the S21 XP Hyd. have a shutdown price in the $40,000–$50,000 range, demonstrating significantly higher resilience than older, less efficient liquid-cooled models. Industry insiders believe that with the network difficulty remaining high and the efficiency gap between mining machines widening, this cycle is accelerating the "stratification" of mining machines, and outdated models are finding it difficult to maintain profitability under current market conditions.
Strategy updated its fiscal year 2025 earnings guidance, estimating that if the Bitcoin price ranges from $85,000 to $110,000 by the end of 2025, the target range for Strategy's fiscal year 2025 revenue, net income, and diluted earnings per share is as follows: fiscal year 2025 revenue is estimated to be between $7 billion and $9.5 billion, fiscal year 2025 net income is estimated to be between $5.5 billion and $6.3 billion, and fiscal year 2025 diluted earnings per share are estimated to be between $17.00 and $19.00 per common share.
Project Updates
OKX will delist ACA, CLV, FOXY, PSTAKE, and RACA from spot trading.
OKX announced that from December 9th to December 12th, 2025 (Beijing time), it will gradually delist USDT and USDⓈ spot trading pairs for ACA, CLV, FOXY, PSTAKE, and RACA, and has already suspended deposit operations for these currencies on December 2nd. The strategy trading bots for the affected trading pairs will be gradually shut down starting in the early morning of the delisting date, and related trading services will be suspended from 16:00 on December 6th.
The Coinbase 50 Index adds six new projects: HBAR, MANTLE, VET, FLR, SEI, and IMX.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Coinbase rebalanced its Coinbase 50 Index (COIN50), adding six new assets: Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR), Mantle (MANTLE), VeChain (VET), Flare (FLR), Sei (SEI), and Immutable X (IMX). This index tracks the overall performance of the top 50 investable digital assets listed on the Coinbase exchange.
Coinbase will launch spot trading for Plasma (XPL).
According to Coinbase Markets, Plasma (XPL) will launch the XPL-USD trading pair at 1:00 AM Beijing time on December 3 (9:00 AM PST on December 2), subject to liquidity requirements. XPL runs on the Plasma network and is limited to transfers within this network; cross-chain transactions may result in fund loss. XPL will be available on the Coinbase website, app, and Advanced platform, and institutional users can access it through Coinbase Exchange.
Kalshi blockchained thousands of prediction markets onto Solana
According to The Block, US prediction market platform Kalshi has tokenized thousands of prediction markets through Solana, promoting the open monetization of its global liquidity pools. Kalshi has also partnered with DFlow and Jupiter to launch "Builder Codes," allowing users to build applications and earn rewards based on trading volume.
Important data
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $79.0574 million yesterday.
According to SoSoValue data, BlackRock's ETHA saw the largest net inflow at $26.6535 million, bringing its cumulative net inflow to $13.174 billion; while Grayscale's ETHE experienced the largest net outflow at $49.788 million, bringing its cumulative net outflow to $4.982 billion. As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $17.209 billion, representing 5.17% of Ethereum's market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $12.866 billion.
According to data from GrowThePie, the Ethereum mainnet set a new all-time high throughput record in November 2025. The Ethereum ecosystem network's peak TPS (transactions per second) recently reached a new all-time high of 32,950. Lighters account for approximately 90% of Ethereum's daily L2 TPS, but only pay about $685 in on-chain costs to Ethereum daily.
Investment and Financing/Acquisition
Gleec acquires Komodo's cross-chain DeFi stack for $23.5 million
According to CoinDesk, digital asset platform Gleec announced the acquisition of the entire Komodo platform ecosystem for $23.5 million, bringing one of the earliest atomic swap and cross-chain technology stacks in the cryptocurrency space under the umbrella of a licensed financial services provider. This acquisition encompasses the Komodo brand, technology suite, token infrastructure, and core development team, giving Gleec full control of a system that already powers some of its DEXs and accelerating integration with its crypto debit cards, Virtual International Bank Account Numbers (IBANs), and fiat currency deposit and withdrawal gateways. Gleec also plans to provide white-label DEXs and blockchain services to institutions seeking cross-chain capabilities without relying on custodial cross-chain bridges. Currently, the Komodo ecosystem and KMD token will continue to operate under Gleec, and their future direction will determine whether they are merged into the GLEEC token or remain independent. Gleec expects to fully integrate the Komodo technology stack by early 2026 and continue to expand its B2B infrastructure.
French crypto savings platform Bitstack announced the completion of a $15 million Series A funding round, led by 13books Capital, with participation from AG2R LA MONDIALE, Plug and Play Ventures, Serena, Stillmark, and Y Combinator. The company claims to have over 300,000 active users in France, with accumulated savings exceeding €300 million in Bitcoin, and revenue growing tenfold in two years. It has obtained a MiCA license from the French AMF and operates in multiple European countries. The company will accelerate the launch of its VISA debit card "Stackback" rewards and Euro accounts (including French IBANs), with card testing scheduled to begin on January 13, 2026, for 5,000 eligible users.
Institutional holdings
Bloomberg: Stablecoin company First Digital plans to go public via SPAC merger.
According to Bloomberg, sources familiar with the matter revealed that Hong Kong-based First Digital Group is planning a public listing through a merger with a blank check company. The company is expected to announce the signing of a non-binding letter of intent outlining its plans to merge with CSLM Digital Asset Acquisition Corp III (CSLM), a New York-listed special purpose acquisition company. First Digital Group is the issuer of the stablecoin FDUSD, which has a market capitalization of approximately $920 million, down from its peak of approximately $4.4 billion in April 2024. As trustee, First Digital Group also manages reserves for TrueUSD, a stablecoin operated by Techteryx, whose advisor is Justin Sun.
BitMine currently holds over 3% of the total ETH token supply, with total assets of $12.1 billion.
According to PR Newswire, Nasdaq-listed Ethereum treasury company BitMine disclosed that it currently holds over 3% of the Ethereum token supply. BitMine's total cryptocurrency, cash, and "Moonshots" holdings amount to $12.1 billion, including approximately 3.73 million ETH, $882 million in uncollateralized cash, and other cryptocurrency assets. As of November 30th, Eastern Time, the company's cryptocurrency holdings included 3,726,499 ETH and 192 BTC. In addition, the company also holds $36 million worth of Eightco Holdings shares and $882 million in uncollateralized cash.
Strategy has established a $1.44 billion dollar reserve for dividends.
Strategy announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve specifically for paying preferred stock dividends and interest on existing debt. The reserve will be funded by proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock under the company's market offering plan. Strategy currently plans to maintain a reserve size sufficient to cover at least 12 months of dividend payments and intends to gradually increase its size, with the ultimate goal of creating a buffer pool capable of covering dividend payments for 24 months or more. The continuation, terms, and size of the reserve are entirely at the company's discretion, and Strategy will dynamically adjust the reserve size based on market conditions, liquidity needs, and other factors.
Strategy spent $11.7 million last week to acquire 130 bitcoins.
According to official sources, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased 130 Bitcoins between November 17 and November 30, for a total of $11.7 million, at a price of approximately $89,960 per Bitcoin. As of November 30, Strategy held 650,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $48.38 billion and a price of approximately $74,436 per Bitcoin.
According to RBC, the National Bank of Kazakhstan is preparing to invest up to $300 million in cryptocurrency instruments. Timur Suleimenov, head of the country's regulatory body, revealed this at a press conference on November 28. Zakon.kz quoted Suleimenov as saying, "This doesn't mean we've already put $300 million into the investment; the amount could be limited to $50 million, $100 million, or even $250 million. Given the overall decline in the cryptocurrency market, people are rethinking the prospects for monetization, profitability, etc., which is a very challenging task." Suleimenov cautioned that the funds are not from the Kazakhstan National Fund, but rather from the central bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves. Within this reserve framework, an investment portfolio has been created for investing in high-tech stocks and other financial instruments related to digital financial assets, but the regulator is not in a hurry to invest. Suleimenov stated, "We will not rush into these decisions until good investment opportunities emerge. After the current decline in all digital, financial, and crypto assets, we need to wait and see before making investment decisions. We will not rush into anything."
