Text: Bai Ding
Bitcoin soared to an all-time high of $69,000 in 2021, fell to a low of $15,400 in 2022, hit $110,000 by the end of 2024, and is now fluctuating between $75,000 and $85,000. For ordinary investors, a question always lingers in their minds: "Where is the bottom price of Bitcoin in this cycle?" "Has it hit the bottom, or is there still room to fall?" We will analyze this issue in depth from the perspectives of historical laws, on-chain data, macroeconomic background, mining costs, etc., and take you to explore potential bargain hunting opportunities. This article will provide ordinary readers with a trustworthy reference in an easy-to-understand way combined with authoritative analysis.
To understand the bottom price of Bitcoin, we first need to review the laws of its price cycle. Since its birth in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced many bull and bear cycles, and these cycles are often closely related to the "halving" event. Halving refers to the Bitcoin network halving the mining rewards for miners every four years, thereby slowing down the supply of new Bitcoins.
Historically, halvings usually trigger bull runs, but within 1-2 years after the halving, the market often experiences a deep correction, forming a cycle bottom. Previous cycles provide us with clues: after the 2012 halving, prices reached a high in 2013 and bottomed out at around $200 in 2015; after the 2016 halving, the 2017 bull run pushed prices up to $20,000, before falling to $3,200 in 2018; after the 2020 halving, prices reached a high of $69,000 in 2021, before falling to $15,400 in 2022. These bottoms usually occur 18-24 months after the halving, and prices fall 70%-85% from the previous highs. The fourth halving occurred in April 2024, and according to this pattern, mid-2025 to early 2026 may be the key window for the formation of the bottom.
However, historical laws are only the starting point, and the actual bottom price still needs to be analyzed in combination with multiple factors.
First, mining costs are the most important variable that cannot be ignored. The Bitcoin mining process requires a lot of electricity and computing power support, and the miners' startup costs (i.e., the minimum cost to keep mining equipment running) often provide an "invisible support" for Bitcoin prices. When the Bitcoin price falls close to or below the mining cost, some miners may choose to shut down to reduce selling pressure and stabilize the price.
From the above chart, we can see that historically, when the market is good, the price of Bitcoin often exceeds the mining cost by a large margin, while in a bear market, it is on par with the mining cost, and the mining cost grows more and more slowly, and there will be a large decline when the market turns bearish. Considering that the current average mining cost of Bitcoin is basically the same, the expected price may fall to between US$70,000 and US$80,000 after the decline. This is the bottom of Bitcoin estimated from the perspective of mining cost.
On-chain data further provides us with clues to find the bottom. On-chain data records transactions, positions and mining behaviors on the Bitcoin blockchain, which can reflect the real movements of market participants. Among them, the selling behavior of "long-term holders" (investors who hold Bitcoin for more than one year) is an important indicator of the bottom signal. At the bottom of the bear market in 2022, the proportion of long-term holders selling dropped significantly, indicating that their confidence in low prices has increased.
At the same time, "net inflows to exchanges" also decreased significantly, indicating that investors are no longer in a hurry to sell. In addition, "realized price" (reflecting the average purchase cost of all holders) is a key indicator. In 2022, when the price of Bitcoin fell to $16,500, it was close to the realized price of about $18,000 at the time, indicating that the market selling pressure was basically released.
The macroeconomic environment also has an important impact on the bottom price of Bitcoin. The bear market in 2022 occurred against the backdrop of global central banks raising interest rates and a stronger dollar. The Fed continued to raise interest rates to curb inflation, which put pressure on risk assets in general, including Bitcoin. However, starting in 2023, the Fed gradually slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes and began to cut interest rates in the second half of 2024, providing liquidity support for the crypto market.
At the same time, global economic uncertainty (such as geopolitical conflicts and supply chain crises) has driven some funds to flow into decentralized assets such as Bitcoin to seek safe havens. **Under the current macroeconomic background, the bottom price of Bitcoin may be more obscure than in previous rounds, and the range of US$20,000 to US$25,000 is more likely. **We all know that 2027 is a critical time node for the international (mainly China-US) pattern and relationship. As 2027 approaches, the macroeconomic situation is becoming increasingly difficult to predict, which is the biggest variable in this round of Bitcoin bottom price.
The participation of institutional investors is another major feature of this cycle. Unlike in the past, since 2020, institutions such as MicroStrategy and Grayscale have become important forces in the market by purchasing Bitcoin ETFs or directly holding Bitcoin. In 2024, the United States approved multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs, attracting billions of dollars in capital inflows. These institutional funds are usually highly resilient and can provide support when the market is down.
For example, in 2022, the stability of institutional holdings helped Bitcoin avoid a larger decline. **The continued inflow of institutional funds means that the decline at the bottom of this round may be milder than in the historical cycle, and the probability of falling below $20,000 is low. *, It is worth noting that institutional investors usually use mining costs as a reference for buying, which further strengthens the possibility of $70,000-80,000 as a support level.
One concept should be emphasized here: the high volatility of cryptocurrencies means that the bottom is not an "absolute low", but only a relatively stable price range. External factors, such as tightening regulatory policies, hacker attacks, or macroeconomic emergencies, may cause prices to fall below expectations in the short term. For example, the collapse of the Terra ecosystem and the bankruptcy of FTX in 2022 caused market panic, causing Bitcoin prices to fall beyond expectations.
In addition, mining costs are not an absolute bottom line. If global energy prices rise sharply, some high-cost mining farms may be forced to shut down, exacerbating selling pressure in the short term. Ordinary investors should adopt a phased position building strategy when buying at the bottom, avoiding investing all funds at once to cope with potential fluctuations.
Based on the above analysis, we can make a reasonable judgment on the bottom price of Bitcoin in this cycle. Based on historical rules, on-chain data, macroeconomic background, institutional capital participation, mining costs and technical indicators, the bottom of this cycle is likely to be between $65,000 and $80,000, and the time window may be concentrated in mid-2025 to early 2026. This range takes into account the support of historical declines and mining costs, as well as the particularity of institutional funds and the macro environment, and has a high reference value. Investment is always accompanied by uncertainty, and ordinary investors should remain rational and avoid blindly chasing highs or panic selling.
