In his latest press conference, Powell pointed out that the U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant cooling: hiring and layoffs are slowing simultaneously, businesses are finding it easier to recruit, households' expectations for job opportunities are declining, and the unemployment rate has risen to approximately 4.4%. Job growth has weakened significantly since the beginning of the year, partly due to a slowdown in labor supply, including reduced immigration and a lower participation rate, but labor demand itself is also weakening.
On the inflation front, core PCE remained at 2.8% year-on-year, above the long-term target of 2%. Inflation in some goods rebounded due to rising tariffs, but service inflation continued its slowing trend. Although overall inflation has fallen significantly from its 2022 peak, it has not yet reached a level that would completely reassure the Federal Reserve. The FOMC cut interest rates again by 25 basis points and simultaneously launched short-term Treasury purchases to maintain ample reserves and ensure the effective operation of policy rates.
Powell emphasized that with rising employment risks and persistently high inflation, there is no "risk-free" policy path, and the Federal Reserve must strike a more delicate balance under the constraints of its dual mandate. He stated that interest rates are nearing the neutral range, and future policy will not be predetermined but will be determined on a case-by-case basis based on economic data and risk assessments.
