Powell: With weak employment and still high inflation, nobody's talking about raising interest rates anymore.

  • Labor Market Cooling: Fed Chair Powell notes a significant cooling in the U.S. labor market, with slowing hiring and layoffs, easier recruitment for businesses, declining household job expectations, and an unemployment rate rising to about 4.4%. Job growth has weakened substantially in 2024 due to both slowing labor supply (including reduced immigration and lower participation) and weakening labor demand.
  • Inflation Remains Elevated: Core PCE inflation held at 2.8% year-on-year, above the Fed's 2% long-term target. While service inflation is slowing, some goods inflation rebounded due to rising tariffs. Overall inflation has declined from its 2022 peak but is not yet at a level that fully reassures the Federal Reserve.
  • Policy Actions: The FOMC cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiated short-term Treasury purchases to maintain ample bank reserves and ensure the effective operation of policy rates.
  • Policy Outlook: Powell emphasized there is no "risk-free" policy path, requiring a delicate balance between the Fed's employment and inflation mandates. With interest rates nearing a neutral range, future policy decisions will not be predetermined but will be made meeting-by-meeting based on incoming economic data and risk assessments.
Summary

In his latest press conference, Powell pointed out that the U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant cooling: hiring and layoffs are slowing simultaneously, businesses are finding it easier to recruit, households' expectations for job opportunities are declining, and the unemployment rate has risen to approximately 4.4%. Job growth has weakened significantly since the beginning of the year, partly due to a slowdown in labor supply, including reduced immigration and a lower participation rate, but labor demand itself is also weakening.

On the inflation front, core PCE remained at 2.8% year-on-year, above the long-term target of 2%. Inflation in some goods rebounded due to rising tariffs, but service inflation continued its slowing trend. Although overall inflation has fallen significantly from its 2022 peak, it has not yet reached a level that would completely reassure the Federal Reserve. The FOMC cut interest rates again by 25 basis points and simultaneously launched short-term Treasury purchases to maintain ample reserves and ensure the effective operation of policy rates.

Powell emphasized that with rising employment risks and persistently high inflation, there is no "risk-free" policy path, and the Federal Reserve must strike a more delicate balance under the constraints of its dual mandate. He stated that interest rates are nearing the neutral range, and future policy will not be predetermined but will be determined on a case-by-case basis based on economic data and risk assessments.

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Author: PA影音

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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