This is not because Hyperliquid's fundamentals have collapsed, on the contrary, the project is still strong:
$HYPE Just Hit a New All-Time High (ATH)
Hyperliquid’s TVL (total locked value) is close to $4 billion, also a record high
But precisely because it is now at its "peak", we need to think calmly about the risks that follow.
1️⃣ Hyperliquid’s biggest hidden danger: the core user structure is facing an impact
Hyperliquid currently has about 10,000 to 20,000 daily active users.
Almost all of the platform's revenue comes from this group of high-frequency users, mainly American traders.
❗ This is the core of the problem:
US traders chose Hyperliquid because they were banned from trading perpetual contracts on CEXs such as Binance.
But now, both Coinbase and Robinhood have announced that they will launch perpetual contract products in the United States.
This change will completely reshape Hyperliquid's fundamentals.
2️⃣ Why are Coinbase and Robinhood a “lethal threat”?
Compared with decentralized exchanges, the advantages of centralized exchanges are too obvious:
✅ High ease of use: no wallet connection required, no complicated signature required
✅ Compliance and security: Supported by US regulatory agencies such as the SEC
✅ Solid user base: Coinbase and Robinhood both have tens of millions of users
The reality is:
The vast majority of traders don’t care about “decentralization”, they only care about:
Convenient and fast
Trading Depth
Transparent fees
Especially US compliant traders, they will migrate to Coinbase or Robinhood without hesitation.
3️⃣ Hyperliquid’s moat is still there, but short-term pressure is inevitable
It must be admitted that Hyperliquid is not without advantages:
⚙️ Higher leverage
📈 Community-driven innovative token trading pairs
💰 Potentially lower transaction fees
But the problem is: these advantages are not enough to offset the disadvantages of "usage threshold" for ordinary traders.
In the past, Hyperliquid has already found it difficult to compete with Binance, and now it has to face a direct impact from Coinbase in the United States.
In the short term, the price of $HYPE is bound to be under pressure.
4️⃣ Long-term opportunities: Speed of innovation is Hyperliquid’s greatest weapon
If the advantages of centralized platforms are compliance and convenience,
Hyperliquid's opportunity lies in "innovation speed":
HIP-3 mechanism ➔ Continuously optimize platform governance and token economy
HyperEVM Ecosystem ➔ Build a unique decentralized financial infrastructure
Novel trading pair listing mechanism ➔ Forming a differentiated liquidity market
To sum up in one sentence:
“CEX occupies the traditional market, and Hyperliquid is responsible for opening up new battlefields.”
Conclusion: short-term risk aversion, long-term innovation
Short-term view:
➔ The structural selling pressure faced by $HYPE cannot be ignored, especially when Coinbase and Robinhood products are officially launched, both trading volume and TVL may decline.
Appropriate reduction of positions is a defensive strategy.
Long-term view:
➔ If Hyperliquid can truly build its own ecological moat through HIP-3 and HyperEVM, it will still have the potential to counterattack the mainstream market in the future.
This is not just about the investment logic of $HYPE.
It is also a long-term ecological competition between "centralized finance vs. decentralized finance".
The real watershed will be in the next 6-12 months.
