① Investor Greed Index soars, indicating that the top is approaching

According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, market sentiment has been in the "extreme greed" stage for many consecutive days.

Similar sentiment appeared after BTC hit $69,000 in 2021, but it was followed by a long correction period.

② Whales transfer $17 billion of BTC to exchanges, ready to ship?

CryptoQuant data shows that in just 4 days, large addresses transferred $17 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges, and on-chain funds surged from $28 billion to $45 billion.

This is a typical "shipping precursor" behavior - a large amount of transfers means that potential concentrated selling or price manipulation is coming.

③ The Fed’s attitude has not loosened, and 07/30 has become a key watershed in the market

The Fed is still in a state of “pausing interest rate hikes” and has not yet released a clear signal of a rate cut.

If the July 30 interest rate meeting continues to maintain a hawkish tone, the market may quickly turn from optimism to panic, and BTC’s short-term target may fall back to the $100,000 range.

④ The bull market life cycle is nearing its end: the 550-day cycle is nearing its end

Each round of Bitcoin bull market in history lasted an average of about 550 days (calculated from the halving day):

• This was the case in 2012, 2017, and 2021.

• The current cycle is about 500 days away from the halving in 2024, and the technical cycle peak is approaching.

⑤ Google Trends Warning: Retail investors are rushing into altcoins

According to Google Trends, the global search volume for the keyword "Altcoins" has soared to the peak of the bubble in 2021.

This usually means that retail investors are starting to FOMO and chase high prices, and it also means that the capital structure is becoming highly fragile and the market is seriously overheated.

⑥ The crypto market is highly correlated with traditional finance, and macro shocks may trigger a chain reaction

Trump’s new tariff expectations, JPMorgan Chase’s pessimistic economic forecasts and other traditional market pressures have affected the crypto market.

Once external shocks trigger fluctuations in U.S. stocks or the U.S. dollar, the entire crypto market value may fall back to below $3.49 trillion.

⑦ Although Bitcoin's "real market value" has reached a new high, downward pressure is accumulating

Since 2025, Bitcoin's market value has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, with an increase of 25% this year. But behind this glory is the daily growing on-chain selling pressure, liquidity concentration and negative macro environment.

The market is prosperous on the surface, but the "skeleton" of the bull market has begun to loosen.

🧾Conclusion:

Bitcoin's current high is not the starting point of a new round of rise, but a huge bull market trap formed by greed, on-chain concentration and macro negatives.

• Retail investors are still chasing the dream of $200,000,

• Whales are quietly retreating,

• The Fed has not turned dovish yet,

• Google Trends is close to overheating,

• and the bull market window is about to close.

If the market plays out like history, a 60% correction may become a reality, not a threat. Now is your last chance to adjust your position and think calmly.

This is the end of the bull market, not the beginning.