The market fluctuated in August and will usher in the second round of rising climax this year after September.

The crypto market faces key variables in late 2025, including Fed policy splits, Trump's tariff implementation, Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations, and tech giant financial reports, influencing Bitcoin and overall market trends.
Analysts predict a "suppression-rebound" pattern: short-term volatility and correction risks, followed by medium-term upward momentum due to Fed policy shifts and stablecoin infrastructure advancements.
The July FOMC meeting revealed rare internal Fed divisions, with a 65% chance of a September rate cut; weak economic data could accelerate this shift, potentially boosting Bitcoin.
Trump's August 1 tariffs and EU-US trade agreements may cause short-term market disturbances but are unlikely to derail the Fed's easing path, with global M2 liquidity at a 2023 high favoring risky assets.
Bitcoin shows technical weakness (double top at $123k, RSI decline, ETF outflows), with 96.9% of holdings in profit signaling profit-taking pressure; August's seasonal risks may trigger volatility.
Key support at $117k could sustain medium-term bullish trends, while a drop below may lead to consolidation near $110k.
Long-term catalysts include decentralized finance adoption, fiat currency depreciation, and inefficient traditional systems, positioning crypto as a hedge.
Projections: August-September may see corrections, but late September-December could bring a second 2025 rally if Fed cuts rates, with BTC/ETH leading and stablecoins/RWA/cross-border payments emerging as hotspots. Low-quality altcoins may underperform.

In the second half of 2025, the crypto market stands at a crossroads of macroeconomic and policy shifts. Intensifying divisions within the Federal Reserve, the critical implementation phase of Trump's tariff policy, the official implementation of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong, and market sentiment fluctuations triggered by the financial reports of tech giants all constitute key variables influencing Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. StarEx exchange analyst Jason believes that the crypto market will experience a "suppression followed by a rebound, with structural differentiation" pattern in the second half of the year: short-term volatility will intensify, and the risk of a market correction will rise; in the medium term, upward momentum will resume due to the Fed's policy shift, the advancement of stablecoin infrastructure, and the optimization of global capital flows. The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates as expected, but a rare "double dissenting" vote occurred within the Fed since 1993, reflecting deep divergences within the Fed's assessment of the economic situation. Although Powell did not explicitly signal a September rate cut, he acknowledged that economic growth slowed in the first half of the year. Notably, CME interest rate futures indicate a near 65% probability of a September rate cut. Continued weakness in key data such as the non-farm payrolls and core PCE figures will further intensify market expectations. If Powell hints at a policy shift in the coming weeks, Bitcoin's new highs could quickly become a market consensus.

StarEx exchange analyst Jason believes the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are a significant turning point. There are two interest rate cut windows in September and December. Once initiated, they will reignite the liquidity rally in risky assets. Bitcoin's fate hinges on the timing of this "interest rate inflection point."

On August 1st, Trump's new round of tariffs will be fully implemented. Although the tariff shock carries inflationary risks, the market generally believes this is a short-term disturbance and unlikely to reverse the Fed's medium-term easing path. Meanwhile, the EU and the US reached a key tariff agreement, signaling a structural easing of global trade risks. Global M2 liquidity has rebounded to a new high since 2023. A rebound in M2 typically signals an improvement in the funding environment for risky assets, and the crypto market is the most sensitive "leading indicator" of this change. With an improving macroeconomic environment, the crypto market may usher in a new round of capital allocation. StarEx Exchange analyst Jason believes that while the medium-term trend remains positive, the market is currently showing some signs of correction pressure. Bitcoin has failed to break through the key resistance of $123,000, technically forming a double top structure. The RSI has plummeted to 51.7, indicating weakening momentum. ETF fund flows have plummeted by 80%, with daily trading volume falling to $8.6 billion. 96.9% of Bitcoin holdings are in profit, indicating profit-taking pressure. August's historical returns have been weak, and seasonal risks cannot be ignored. The crypto market is entering a period of short-term volatility, with increasing risk and sentiment. If BTC holds above $117,000, the medium-term structure remains promising, potentially reaching new highs. Otherwise, it may retreat to $110,000 or lower for consolidation. StarEx Exchange analyst Jason believes that intensifying macroeconomic divergences, evolving regulations, and cyclical adjustments in market structure are driving global investors to re-evaluate the efficiency and sustainability of the financial system itself. Inefficient settlement systems, depreciating fiat currencies, and implicit subsidies to banks are driving global capital to explore alternative paths to decentralized and programmable finance, creating a historic opportunity for the crypto market. Jason's take: From August to September, short-term correction pressure will increase, with market volatility expected, pending clarity on macroeconomic policies. From late September to December, if the Federal Reserve initiates a cycle of interest rate cuts and global liquidity returns to an expansionary trajectory, the crypto market will experience its second surge of the year. BTC and ETH will remain the dominant forces, with stablecoins, RWAs, and cross-border payment projects expected to become new hotspots. Low-quality altcoins may continue to experience declines during the bull market.

The market fluctuated in August and will usher in the second round of rising climax this year after September.

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