Author: Alertforalpha
Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain
Crypto investing is 90% waiting and 10% fireworks. You have to survive the long bear market, the boring sideways fluctuations, and the false breakouts that make you doubt your life. But then... BAM! Everything aligns. Liquidity surges, macro risks subside, and the candlestick charts are lit up again just like in 2021.
We may be entering that rare 6-12 month golden window. Those who got in early could make a killing. You don’t want to fall asleep at this time.
Let’s analyze why now may be a critical moment.
The candlestick chart is green - strong momentum
Let’s look at the weekly MACD first. Bitcoin and Ethereum just confirmed a bullish crossover. Not on a daily basis – on a weekly basis! This is a trend trader’s dream. Add to that:
- Ethereum breaks through 200-day moving average
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bullish (remember, in a true bull market, the RSI can remain overbought for months)
- Bitcoin Easily Holds on Weekly Supertrend Line
- Ethereum is lagging behind, but is catching up
In short, technical analysis shows overall market strength. These are not weak signals - they are multiple confirmation indicators that often precede historic rallies.
M2 money supply expands again
Here’s your cheat code: Bitcoin price is 83% correlated with global M2 money supply.
When M2 (i.e. global liquidity) expands, Bitcoin will soar. It's not an absolute science, but if you look at it over time, you will find a pattern. Right now, M2 is rising rapidly.
The tide is rising, and Bitcoin tends to rise with it. And when Bitcoin rises, the entire market takes off.
Macro environment: From chaos to calm
April was brutal. Tariff wars, bond market chaos, global tensions, recession fears. Every pessimist found his or her own stage.
But now? Peace talks, trade deals, cooling inflation, positive GDP forecasts (Atlanta Fed even expects 2.4% growth). The market has basically digested the macro chaos and started to look forward.
This all paves the way for the following scenario:
- The economy could be stronger
- Liquidity injection rather than tightening
- Less volatility, more clarity on direction
And the timing is perfect — Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle suggests that now is the time to act.
Institutional funds are pouring in
This isn’t just a feeling. There are real forces driving the market:
- MicroStrategy keeps buying Bitcoin like it’s oxygen
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs are now live, and boomers are snapping them up
- Dozens of Altcoin ETFs May Be Launching Soon
- Bills supporting cryptocurrency advance in Congress
- Even the SEC seems to be backing down on its cryptocurrency witch hunt
This kind of institutional consistency is something we couldn’t even dream of two years ago. The same US government that once threatened to “shut down cryptocurrencies” now wants to be the center of the cryptocurrency world.
This isn't a narrative, this is a flip of the script.
How to deal with it correctly
Don't let the frenzy ruin your strategy. Bull markets reward discipline, not FOMO.
Here is a guide to action:
- Don't try to short a pullback, now is not the time.
- Buy on dips. Pullbacks are not sell signals, but entry opportunities.
- Clarify your goals. Choose your token, set a limit order, and keep some funds for emergencies.
- Have a plan for selling. You need an exit strategy to keep your profits from going to waste. Cashing out in batches is a good idea.
- Keep an eye on macro catalysts. The next Fed meeting is in June, and a rate cut could extend the rally further. But if not, be prepared for volatility.
We may see a local top in July or August - perhaps around $150,000 for Bitcoin. This is not absolute, but it is a plausible scenario based on global M2 trends.
Final Thoughts
The situation is almost perfect now. Weekly technical indicators are strongly bullish, M2 liquidity is climbing, macro chaos is fading, and institutions are hoarding Bitcoin like prime real estate.
There aren't many opportunities like this. If you haven't entered yet, you're already late. If you're already in, your job is to stick to the plan.
The bull market within this bull market may have already begun.
