Key Points
The current BTC price is in a stage of short-term correction and long-term trend game, and the area around $82,500 is a key position for long and short positions. Investors should:
l Short-term: Keep an eye on the $82,000 support and $83,500 resistance, and operate flexibly based on technical indicators
l Mid-term: Waiting for the layout of the 80,000-81,000 USD area, the long-term goal is to maintain the expectation of more than 100,000 USD
l Risk control: Prioritize the use of low leverage and avoid heavy bets before major events (such as the Federal Reserve’s decision).
1. Price Fluctuation and Trading Volume
In the past 24 hours, the BTC price fluctuated between $81,500 and $91,000, with a 24-hour drop of 8.05% and a trading volume of about $71.28 billion, indicating significant market selling pressure.
l Impact of key events: US Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 1,238 BTC (about US$102.85 million) in a single day, and the withdrawal of institutional funds exacerbated short-term downward pressure
Technical indicator signals
l Trend judgment: The hourly K-line chart shows that the price is in a downward trend, testing the $82,000 support level several times, and the short-term resistance level is in the $83,000-85,000 range.
l Momentum indicators: Williams indicator shows that the market is in a neutral range, with no overbought or oversold signals; MACD is close to a death cross, and RSI is at 45, which means it is bearish in the short term but there is a possibility of a rebound.
l Volume-price relationship: When prices fall, trading volume increases (e.g., trading volume reached $76.4 billion on March 4), indicating that selling pressure dominates the market
2. Market sentiment and capital flows
l Institutional dynamics: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) reduced its holdings by 909 BTC, and Grayscale (GBTC) outflowed 420 BTC, reflecting the short-term bearish sentiment of institutions
l Whale activity: Some whales went long on BTC with 4x leverage (entry price $82,684), but the liquidation price was as low as $59,343. High-risk operations may exacerbate market volatility
Macroeconomic and policy risks
l Fed policy: The Fed’s interest rate decision in March may affect the US dollar index. If a hawkish signal is released, it may further suppress the cryptocurrency market.
l Regulatory dynamics: SEC's approval progress for cryptocurrency ETFs and energy consumption disputes remain long-term disturbance factors
3. Signal Observation
1. Short-term trading (1-3 days )
l Short selling opportunity: If the price rebounds to $83,000-83,500 and encounters resistance, you can short with a light position, stop loss at $84,000, and target at $80,000-81,000 (risk-reward ratio 1:3)
l Long opportunity: If the price stabilizes at $82,000 and the hourly RSI <30 (oversold), you can try to buy with a stop loss of $81,500 and a target of $83,500-85,000
Leverage recommendation: no more than 5 times, single risk control within 2%-5% of total funds
2. Mid-term layout (1-3 weeks)
l Position building area: If the price falls back to USD 80,000-81,000, you can buy spot or low-leverage contracts in batches, with a target of more than USD 90,000
Hedging strategy: Buy a put option with an exercise price of $80,000 to prevent extreme downside risks
3. Event-driven opportunities
Impact of option expiration: At the end of March, 14.27 billion USD of BTC options expire (the biggest pain point is 98,000 USD). If the price approaches this area, it may cause drastic fluctuations, and it is necessary to reduce positions in advance or arrange hedging.
IV. Risk Warning
l Liquidity risk: During the night (00:00-04:00 Beijing time), trading volume decreases, slippage increases, and high leverage positions should avoid holding overnight positions
l Risk of pinning: The market has been volatile recently, so you need to choose a platform with a perfect price marking mechanism (such as Binance, OKX) and set a strict stop loss
l Emotional management: Avoid frequent trading due to short-term fluctuations and strictly implement stop-profit and stop-loss disciplines
Not investment advice, analysis only
