In a recent CNBC interview, Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin's classic four-year cycle is no longer the primary driver. While past halvings had a significant impact in the early days, Bitcoin's daily trading volume is now $50-100 billion, and the next halving will only reduce the supply by 225 BTC (approximately $20 million) per day, "not even qualifying as a second-order impact."
Saylor points out that what truly drives Bitcoin is the structural forces of the market: — A one-time expansion of $50 billion in credit by the banking system, far exceeding the halving effect; — After the SEC relaxed restrictions on IBIT derivatives, its open interest surged from $10 billion to $50 billion; — Deep involvement of traditional finance brought billions of dollars in new demand. "Bitcoin is now driven by the embrace of the global financial structure."
