Author: Zen, PANews

Telegram has recently been in the spotlight again due to financial information leaked to investors: its revenue curve is upward, but its net profit has turned downward. The key variable here is not the slowdown in user growth, but rather the decline in the price of TON, which has "penetrated" the asset-side volatility into the profit and loss statement.

The sale of over $450 million worth of TON tokens has prompted outsiders to re-examine its relationship and boundaries with the TON ecosystem.

Telegram's revenue surged despite low TON prices, but it still suffered a net loss.

According to the Financial Times , Telegram achieved a significant revenue surge in the first half of 2025. Unaudited financial reports show that the company's revenue reached $870 million in the first half of the year, a 65% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding the $525 million in the first half of 2024; it also achieved an operating profit of nearly $400 million.

Looking at the revenue structure, Telegram's advertising revenue grew by 5% to $125 million; premium subscription revenue surged 88% to $223 million, nearly double that of the same period last year. However, the key factor behind Telegram's revenue growth, more significant than these two, was the exclusive agreement signed with the TON blockchain—TON became the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for the Telegram mini-program ecosystem, generating nearly $300 million in related revenue for Telegram.

Therefore, overall, Telegram continued its strong growth in the first half of last year, following the mini-game craze that began in 2024. In 2024, Telegram achieved its first annual profit, with a profit of $540 million, and its annual revenue reached $1.4 billion, far exceeding the $343 million in 2023.

Of Telegram's $1.4 billion in revenue in 2024, about half came from what it calls "partnerships and ecosystem," roughly $250 million from advertising and $292 million from its premium subscription service. Clearly, Telegram's growth is partly due to the surge in paid users, but even more so to the revenue generated by its cryptocurrency-related partnerships.

However, the high volatility of cryptocurrencies also poses risks to Telegram. Even with nearly $400 million in operating profit in the first half of 2025, Telegram still suffered a net loss of $222 million. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that this was because the company had to revalue its Ton token holdings. Furthermore, due to the continued slump in altcoins throughout 2025, the price of Ton tokens continued to decline, falling by more than 73% to its lowest point.

Shipments of $450 million: Is it a cash-out or a commitment to decentralization?

Having become accustomed to the prolonged slump in altcoin prices and the unrealized losses of numerous DAT-listed companies, retail investors were not too surprised by Telegram's losses due to the devaluation of its virtual assets. What surprised and upset the community even more was the FT report that Telegram had dumped its TON tokens on a massive scale, with sales exceeding $450 million. This figure surpasses 10% of the token's current circulating market capitalization.

As a result, the price of TON continued to decline. Combined with Telegram's handling of the massive amount of tokens it held, this sparked questions and controversies among some TON community members and investors regarding Telegram's alleged "selling of tokens to cash out" and its betrayal of TON investors.

According to a public statement by Manuel Stotz, Chairman of the Board of TON treasury company TON treasury (NASDAQ: TONX), all TON tokens sold by Telegram are set to unlock in four-year installments. This means that these tokens cannot be traded on the secondary market in the short term and will not cause immediate selling pressure.

Furthermore, Stotz stated that the main buyers of Telegram were long-term investors such as TONX, which he leads. They purchased these tokens for long-term holding and staking. TONX, a US-listed company dedicated to investing in the TON ecosystem, will primarily use its Telegram tokens for long-term strategic purposes, rather than for speculative trading.

Stotz also emphasized that Telegram's net holdings of Ton tokens did not decrease significantly after the transaction, and may even have increased. This is because Telegram exchanged some of its existing holdings for the distribution of locked-up tokens, and can continue to generate new TON revenue from businesses such as advertising revenue sharing, resulting in a sustained high level of holdings.

Telegram's long-term business model of acquiring TON tokens has previously raised concerns among some in the community—that the company's excessively high token holdings could hinder TON's decentralization. Telegram founder Pavel Durov has taken this concern very seriously, stating as early as 2024 that the team would limit Telegram's TON holdings to no more than 10%. If holdings exceed this limit, the excess will be sold to long-term investors to ensure wider token distribution and also to raise development funds for Telegram.

Durov emphasized that these sales will be conducted at a slight discount to the market price, with lock-up and vesting periods to avoid short-term selling pressure and ensure the stability of the TON ecosystem. This plan aims to prevent TON from becoming concentrated in Telegram's hands, raising concerns about price manipulation and upholding the project's decentralized principles. Therefore, Telegram's token sales are more likely part of asset restructuring and liquidity management than a simple attempt to profit from high prices.

It is worth noting that while the continued decline in TON prices in 2025 will put pressure on Telegram's financial statements, in the long run, Telegram and TON are highly intertwined, creating a situation of shared prosperity and shared loss.

Telegram has gained new revenue streams and product highlights through its deep involvement in the TON ecosystem, but it also has to bear the financial impact of cryptocurrency market volatility. This double-edged sword effect is a factor that investors must consider when assessing Telegram's value as it considers an IPO.

Telegram's IPO prospects

With its improving financial performance and diversified business, Telegram's IPO prospects have become a focus of market attention. Since 2021, the company has raised more than $1 billion through multiple rounds of bond financing; in 2025, it will issue another $1.7 billion in convertible bonds, attracting participation from internationally renowned institutions such as BlackRock and Abu Dhabi Mubadala.

These financing moves not only provide Telegram with new capital but are also seen as preparation for its IPO. However, Telegram's path to listing is not smooth, as its debt arrangements, regulatory environment, and founder factors will all influence the IPO process.

Telegram currently has two major outstanding bonds: one with a 7% coupon , maturing in March 2026, and the other with a 9% coupon , maturing in 2030. Of the second $1.7 billion bond tranche, approximately $955 million was used to replace older bonds, and $745 million was new capital for the company.

What makes convertible bonds special is their IPO conversion clause: if the company goes public before 2030, investors can redeem/exchange their bonds for shares at approximately 80% of the IPO price, equivalent to a 20% discount. In other words, these investors are betting on Telegram's successful IPO and a substantial valuation premium.

Telegram has already redeemed or repaid the vast majority of its bonds maturing in 2026 through a debt swap in 2025. Durov publicly stated that the old debt from 2021 has been largely repaid and does not pose a current risk. Regarding the impact of the freeze on $500 million in Russian bonds, he responded that Telegram does not rely on Russian capital, and that there were no Russian investors in its recently issued $1.7 billion in bonds.

Therefore, Telegram's main debt currently consists of convertible bonds maturing in 2030, leaving a relatively ample window for an IPO. However, many investors still expect Telegram to seek an IPO around 2026-2027 to achieve debt-to-equity conversion and open up new financing channels. If this window is missed, the company will face long-term debt interest pressure in the future and may lose a valuable opportunity to transition to equity financing.

When assessing Telegram's IPO value, investors also consider its profitability prospects and revenue-sharing model. Telegram currently boasts approximately 1 billion monthly active users and an estimated 450 million daily active users, a massive user base that provides significant commercial potential. While its business has grown rapidly in the past two years, Telegram still needs to prove that its business model can achieve sustainable profitability.

The good news is that Telegram currently has absolute control over its ecosystem. Durov recently emphasized that he is still the sole shareholder of the company, and creditors are not involved in corporate governance.

Therefore, Telegram may be able to sacrifice some short-term profits in exchange for long-term user engagement and ecosystem prosperity, without being constrained by short-sighted shareholders. This "delayed gratification" strategy aligns with Durov's consistent product philosophy and will be central to telling investors the growth story during the IPO process.

However, it's important to emphasize that an IPO isn't solely dependent on financial and debt structure. The FT points out that Telegram's potential IPO plans are still affected by the French legal proceedings against Durov, and the associated uncertainties make a clear timeline difficult to determine. Telegram has also acknowledged in communications with investors that this investigation could pose an obstacle.

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