Edited by: Wu Shuo Blockchain

The crypto market has recently experienced a sharp decline, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000. In September, QwQiao, co-founder of Alliance DAO, warned that the market might need to fall another 50% before it could form a solid foundation and re-enter a super bull market cycle.

This podcast features a recent interview with Jason Huang, Founding Partner of NextGen Digital Venture (NDV), conducted by Tiger Brokers. The conversation revolves around the significant point of Bitcoin's recent drop below $90,000. Jason analyzes Bitcoin's long-term logic as an asset class, the triggers for the short-term correction, and market sentiment from an institutional perspective. Topics covered include the impact of ETFs on asset attributes, the correlation between macroeconomic factors (such as liquidity, interest rate cut expectations, and Trump's policies) and technical indicators (such as death crosses and leveraged liquidations), the relationship between crypto assets and traditional assets like gold and the Nasdaq, and institutional strategies for asset rotation, hedging, and position management.

NDV Fund I (March 2023 to February 2025) operated within a compliant framework, achieving a cumulative return of approximately 275.5% and completing an orderly liquidation; during the same period, it generated positive excess returns compared to Bitcoin. In an interview with Wu on September 1, Jason warned of a potential 30% to 50% market correction.

Jason's analysis of the Bitcoin crash: Short-term fluctuations, optimistic outlook.

Tiger Brokers: Bitcoin's price once fell below the $90,000 mark. The last time it was below $90,000 was in April of this year. Essentially, it has wiped out all the gains of 2025, meaning Bitcoin's overall return so far this year is around -2%. Looking back at the past six weeks, or from October to now, Bitcoin reached a high of $126,000 on October 7th, but then experienced a sharp drop of nearly 7% on October 10th. That day is known as the biggest liquidation day in cryptocurrency history, with nearly $20 billion worth of cryptocurrency being liquidated. Although Bitcoin subsequently rebounded to above $110,000, it has been in a downward trend for the past month and a half, with an overall correction of approximately 30%.

I know Jason is one of the most professional investors I know in this field, so I specifically contacted him today. Jason wanted to share his views as soon as possible. Starting this week, yesterday, Bitcoin's decline accelerated. Technical analysis shows that the price has fallen below the 200-day moving average and triggered a so-called "death cross." There are also rumors that the Trump administration is reviewing a new tax increase rule targeting Americans' overseas crypto assets, affecting market sentiment. Another view is that the combination of short-term global liquidity problems and a decline in institutional inflows has also led to this decline. I'd like to hear Jason's thoughts on this phenomenon. Does yesterday's drop to 90,000 signify a major turning point, or is this just a cyclical phenomenon?

Jason: I think people tend to overinterpret and overreact when extreme events occur in the market. Let me first speak from our institution's perspective. First, after the Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024, Bitcoin officially became an asset class and entered the mainstream financial market. When the ETF was launched, Bitcoin was around $100,000, and now it has fallen to $90,000. Its return over two and a half years is acceptable; in an asset class of approximately $1 trillion, this return is quite good. My personal view is that, in the long run, Bitcoin remains the digital gold standard. Gold is an asset class of approximately $23 to $25 trillion, while the total supply of Bitcoin is 21 million. Therefore, in the long run, I believe Bitcoin has the potential to grow tenfold.

Today's pullback has several reasons. First, Bitcoin's issuance mechanism has a major cycle every four years, as the new issuance halves every four years. From 2008 to 2012, 10 million new Bitcoins were issued, while in the current cycle, only 600,000 were issued, indicating a gradual decrease in new issuance. Therefore, the selling pressure also decreases with each cycle.

I believe that with the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin's price is no longer determined by supply, but by demand. In today's unstable global political and economic climate, Bitcoin is actually a very valuable asset. However, due to the inertia of a four-year cycle, the additional selling pressure at this point is also evident. As a colleague mentioned earlier, the Bitcoin drop on October 11th was triggered by Trump's tweet about a possible second round of tariffs and trade wars, which caused a significant decline. Approximately $20 billion worth of cryptocurrencies were liquidated that day, with many people using leverage. I believe that without Trump's tweet, Bitcoin would be between $130,000 and $150,000 today.

In addition, another recent factor to note is the UK's seizure of 60,000 Bitcoins, which are expected to enter the market and be dumped, leading to market speculation. My view is that Bitcoin has experienced two corrections of approximately 30% in the past 24 years. The first was due to the yen carry trade, occurring around April or May 2024; the second was this April, following Trump's first tariff war. Each sharp drop was followed by a correction of 30% to 35%, and each time new highs were reached within months of the initial drop.

Today's pullback was around 30%, and I'm personally quite optimistic. I believe that Bitcoin, as an asset class, still possesses significant long-term value and will undoubtedly attract investors in the future, especially after Trump's tariff war. We've clearly seen gold and Bitcoin recover faster than the Nasdaq because many people are allocating their assets to them as the "gold" of digital currencies. However, the timing of such allocations is usually when prices are low, not high. Therefore, looking ahead from today, I'm quite optimistic.

Additionally, I just posted two charts. As you can see, there are many short sellers right now. Even if it's just a natural deleveraging process, a short-term rebound to $98,000 to $99,000 is reasonable. This is my current short-term view. In the long term, as I've already stated, my target price is even $1 million.

Technical Analysis and Macroeconomic Factors: Correlation Analysis of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq

Tiger Brokers: I'm not entirely sure if this "death cross" signal is valid in the crypto market. I saw a similar "death cross" in April, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, but this signal has reappeared today. Is this pattern valid?

Jason: Personally, I believe technical analysis is indeed important in market dynamics, but my view is that Bitcoin, as a market with nearly $2 trillion in assets, is already significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, the most important of which is liquidity. For example, the US unemployment data will be released in the next few days, which may affect market expectations regarding a December interest rate cut, and this is a key point of contention. Additionally, Nvidia's earnings report is also about to be released. I think that Bitcoin's recent decline due to the Nasdaq will be somewhat offset by a Nasdaq rebound.

Tiger Brokers: But despite Bitcoin's significant drop these past few days, the Nasdaq hasn't followed suit, suggesting the price difference between them hasn't caught up. Do you think the Nasdaq might experience another decline?

Jason: I think it really depends on Nvidia's earnings report. Our backtesting shows that in extremely panicked environments, Bitcoin's movements are roughly 30% correlated with gold and 70% with the Nasdaq. However, recently Bitcoin's volatility has been essentially moving at twice the rate of the Nasdaq. This is mainly due to market fears about a four-year cycle; many long-term Bitcoin holders are gradually reducing their positions, which is quite normal. After all, Bitcoin has gradually become an asset accepted by the mainstream financial market, and asset transfers between Wall Street and traditional Bitcoin holders are inevitable.

This also partially explains why Bitcoin has underperformed other assets this year. A few days ago, I posted a survey on my WeChat Moments asking people which has a better investment return right now: Bitcoin at $1.8 trillion or Nvidia at $4.5 trillion. While I'm very bullish on AI as a major trend, I still think Nvidia at $4.5 trillion is quite a massive sum.

Institutional Response to Volatility: Asset Rotation and Risk Management Strategies

Tiger Brokers: I also think $5 trillion is indeed a bit frightening. So, as professional investors, what hedging strategies do institutions employ in such volatile markets? Or do they simply hold their positions? For example, given the significant volatility of the past six weeks, and the expectation that volatility will continue, especially until the Fed's interest rate meeting in December, what actions will you take?

Jason: Actually, our style and goal are to ensure Bitcoin continues to outperform. Therefore, when facing black swan events and market downturns, we feel that simply following Bitcoin's trend is good enough. However, in this process, we focus more on careful consideration. During a general decline in crypto assets, stocks typically fall more sharply than Bitcoin. But for small-cap, innovative, and leveraged stocks, we need to consider which asset class has higher alpha. Therefore, we consistently improve performance by carefully selecting high-quality alpha assets. Overall, our strategy is more about considering when to replace Bitcoin and Ethereum positions with crypto-related stocks. That's roughly it.

Tiger Brokers: So you haven't switched to individual stocks yet, and are still maintaining your cryptocurrency position?

Jason: I think we still need to wait for the market to bottom out. Our overall strategy involves rotating through three asset classes. One is holding native tokens of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum; another is investing in Bitcoin-related stocks; and finally, we don't hold US dollars, but rather prefer to hold gold as an asset class. Because in the long run, I believe gold is a better store of value than the US dollar. Although gold has risen significantly this year, I believe that in the coming period, regardless of geopolitical uncertainties, international competition, or continued money printing by the US dollar, gold remains a long-term choice with greater potential for preserving value than the US dollar. Therefore, we primarily rotate our allocation among these three asset classes.

Tiger Brokers: Let me summarize your point. Based on what you just said, I understand you believe Bitcoin is fine in the long term, and that every pullback exceeding 35% is likely to rebound and reach new highs. However, the recent rapid decline might be due to factors like leverage, but this also reflects that the market has already "priced in" many negative factors or liquidity issues. Therefore, it's unlikely to fall further in the short term; instead, the outlook is more optimistic, with a possible volatile rebound. Is a crash likely to follow this pattern?

Jason: I think, or rather, my view leans towards optimism, and more towards a bullish, volatile outlook. Of course, nothing is set in stone. So I believe that as long as liquidity remains ample and interest rate cuts are implemented, there's no reason to expect a significant pullback. Bitcoin represents the pinnacle of liquid assets. As long as the US continues to print money, Bitcoin will maintain an advantageous position because it is finite, limited, non-renewable, and unique. This is very similar to the attributes of gold, except that Bitcoin also carries the added factor of being associated with tech stocks. People who previously didn't accept, understand, or know anything about Bitcoin are gradually coming to understand and accept it.